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Pattern Failbruary Thread

GaWx said:
- RDU is forecasted to get down into the low 20s, which would challenge the coldest of the MTD
- Hogtown: @pcbjr is likely going to get down to ~39, ~8 BN, with room to go down even more if the radiator works well enough. Dewpoint is a mere 29. Beautiful!
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Whereas RDU failed to get down to the forecasted low 20s (low was 26), @pcbjr ‘s Hogtown got down much lower than their forecasted 39 with 34! The Great Radiator was in fine working order and took advantage of the noted 29 dewpoint. Congrats!
 
The euro is a outlier with how cold it is and it’s more extreme vs climo and other globals
 
Still wouldn’t expect any winter weather but a great period of below normal temperatures after a few of the warm days is great. Also seeing signs of wedging helping us stay out of those peak heat days so no 80s yet thankfully .. but the key is that wedge helping us out . If it weakens in any way anyone below has that shot to get pretty warm with each low pressure that moves by
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Love to see it View attachment 114017
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Yes, indeed, the 12Z Euro, after coming in colder than the 0Z Euro through 216 (12Z on 3/1)…see 2m change map below (fro showed 850 mb temp change but there’s a normal lag between 850 and 2m), the 12Z Euro is warmer at 2m just afterward due to the much weaker high vs the anomolously strong high on the 0Z:

12Z still colder than 0Z at 216 at 2m, especially deep SE:

83432D04-76A9-4555-A246-260383ABA5B2.png


@pcbjr gets his freeze per 12Z Euro!
1186144A-8B08-45DB-81A2-F0B7A368F21D.png

Later, once past the lag period even at 2m the 12Z is warmer as fro’s earlier 850 mb change suggested was coming:

5E0CD08A-9A59-4B23-A125-31902902C51F.png

Also, the 12Z EPS is already slightly warmer than the 0Z EPS by 216:

CF351C67-B81C-4F82-8011-F8AD5890FA15.png

But that doesn’t tell the whole story as the 12Z EPS is still very cold all of the way through 216:

51E3BEEE-416C-40DB-AACE-8AAC6E110E75.png

Regardless of the back and forth of model runs, a nice cold shot is headed for the SE in about a week. #IHateBugs
 
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Going further out on the 12Z EPS, which is still much colder than the GEFS and makes me wonder about it being too cold, it remains quite cold especially for lows through 3/4 and cool even for the lows on 3/5: (really for March thread but posting it here as continuation of the discussion since fro was showing March 1st):

CCD39760-0C92-407B-B314-927D501FC37B.png63B01FB9-9FEF-4732-AAD5-599FC13BEF0F.png139B4150-B584-42F1-97E8-DF7A47F70C5C.png31AF1C53-9AE7-4D31-924E-D40E1A3A1FD8.png
 
GaWx said:
Going further out on the 12Z EPS, which is still much colder than the GEFS and makes me wonder about it being too cold, it remains quite cold especially for lows through 3/4 and cool even for the lows on 3/5: (really for March thread but posting it here as continuation of the discussion since fro was showing March 1st):

View attachment 114025View attachment 114026View attachment 114027View attachment 114028
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Not gonna dispute you or the CPC computer ... ;) ... rather am pleasantly accepting both as a nice forecast ...



610temp.new.gif814temp.new.gif
 
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