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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Myfrotho704_ said:
I mean ---- this is impressive, I really thinking some may only get down to the mid 60s for lows during this time period, that’s some stuff you see in June View attachment 113716 and not to mention, the 12z EPS delayed the cold due to more ridge resistance, something to keep a eye on View attachment 113717View attachment 113718
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Based on the 12Z GFS, I’m leaning toward middle 80s for highs at KSAV on 2/23 and 2/24. Normal highs then are in the middle 60s and this is calling for afternoons 20+ AN. Record highs are 84 and 86 for 2/23 and 24, both set in 2012. The prior 4 Febs have had warmest of 86-87, including the 87 of 2018, the record warmest for any day in met. winter:

- In 2021, it was 86 on 2/27 and 2/28.
- In 2020, it was 86 way back on 2/13.
- In 2019, it was 86 on 2/22.
- In 2028, it was 87 on 2/25.

So, a record or near record high of middle 80s on both 2/23 and 2/24 is quite believable based on the GFS as well as recent history with a strong SER in place.

975B065C-8EC9-4181-9D04-0B865760960E.pngD79EF32F-D486-44F5-8B24-48986CA3F37B.png

In summary, the SE is liable to have a very wild temperature swing the next 2 weeks or so from record warmth in places to cold soon after! Exciting times for wx weenies!

Edit: After these very warm Feb highs of the prior 4 Febs, KSAV then had coldest of 32-33 the subsequent March all 4 years.
 
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NickyBGuarantee said:
As we’re used to this year the pattern changes are usually delayed 1-2 weeks I could see this change occurring in the March 4-7 time range vs Feb 28-March 2 time frame
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I hope that for your sake that the cold actually does come in by 3/1-2 because even just 5-7 days delay would bring your area to significantly less favorable climo for a big storm being that the big storm peak ends ~3/3 as big snowfall frequency drops off abruptly just afterward. Every day later in the season starts to make a difference starting around then. But even after then, I wouldn't at all give up as there've been some doozies.
 
The end of February and the first two or three days of March do seem interesting for central NC for the potential of winter weather. It just seems daytime highs would be too warm to support much frozen precipitation?


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HurricaneSolomon said:
The end of February and the first two or three days of March do seem interesting for central NC for the potential of winter weather. It just seems daytime highs would be too warm to support much frozen precipitation?


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No changes from me from what I said a week or two ago, ice pattern or rain. Temps/sun won’t matter it can stick to trees.
 
Should get a burst of snow here in a few hours

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. North winds
will gust as high as 45 mph.
 
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