Pattern Failbruary Thread

[Myfrotho704_]

Gotta admit that’s a good snow pattern if we amplify the pattern even more to a big omega block and drop a low in the GOA with a EC/NE trough. On KU event watch with that pattern given it’s easier to shorten wavelengths in early March, only downside is there’s no Atlantic blocking which is often seen during KU events

 

[Broken024]

It's happening ?

 

[NCSNOW]

Big winds tommorow night with after front. 40-50mph gust

 

[Broken024]

Lol

 

[olhausen]

24 this morning.

Winters not done by a long shot late month early March looks promising for cold and hopefully we can squeeze in one last storm for the board.

Ive said a few times this winter I believe middle Tennessee will get a good sized March snow. It’s been a while (2018) since the last good one. The gfs is starting to look like this may be possible.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

24 this morning.

Ive said a few times this winter I believe middle Tennessee will get a good sized March snow. It’s been a while (2018) since the last good one. The gfs is starting to look like this may be possible.

Nope, haven't you heard... this is the year of the SE trend. The precip will be off the coast in a week.

 

[BufordWX]

Might see one of the wettest weeks in a while next week. Especially in the western half of the southeast.

 

[NCSNOW]

46 at 3;00 pm Wilkesboro: 41 Boone: 61 Winston salem

 

[ForsythSnow]

The Euro definitely sees what the GFS is regarding a pattern shift by the end of the month. If anything, the 12Z runs were closer to a better pattern than the GFS was having the ridge out west closer to the coast and building in with a cold blast slowly. We of course have a SER in place and no -NAO but if there's a good enough cold push there's a good overrunning opportunity in there like the GFS has. That tall of heights up into AK might help do it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow… I hate this but this pattern holds potential, I was baffled to how this popped up but the SPV keeps stretching, which might be the culprit, and NPAC jet extensions keep happening

 

[GaWx]

Although it is long range right now an ensemble mean as stout as this on both major globals usually means somethings up. This is extreme late February to extremely early March which honestly isn’t TERRIBLE climo for some snow to work out (for the upper SE) but yes it is a bit harder. With this look though I could easily see some sort of winter weather working out for the upper SE during this time .. I’ll flag it as interesting and watch as I sunbathe over the next 2 weeks View attachment 113666View attachment 113667View attachment 113669View attachment 113668

Not only is very late Feb to very early March not terrible climo, it actually is about as good as any period climowise in RDU and other areas for especially big dog snowstorms:

At RDU, dates with largest number of days with 6”+ snow:

3: Mar 2
2: Jan 19, Jan 26, Feb 26, Mar 24

Largest number of days with 6”+ snow by 5 day periods:

7: Feb 26-Mar 2
6: none
5: Jan 24-28, Jan 25-29, Feb 9-13, Feb 10-14, Feb 11-15, Feb 27-Mar 3, Feb 28-Mar 4

Also, Feb 25-Mar 3 is the only 7 day period averaging 1.0”.

So, when I see the following 12Z EPS maps for very early March, I get kind of excited about potential based on climo:

 

[Brent]

Winter Storm Warning one county away here tomorrow

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 4
inches possible in far northern and northwest Osage county, with
1 to 2 inches elsewhere. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of
an inch possible before the snow. Winds gusting as high as 35
miles an hour.

 

[Chazwin]

Wow… I hate this but this pattern holds potential, I was baffled to how this popped up but the SPV keeps stretching, which might be the culprit, and NPAC jet extensions keep happening View attachment 113704View attachment 113705

Not to mention, the MJO now looks to be very low amped and inside the circle after the next few days. Also as the Niña is continuing to die off, it could be setting a decent pattern in motion for a late season storm… I seem to recall that we’ve seen some late season storms in the past as Niñas have been fading away

 

[iGRXY]

If we keep the SPV stretching and keep the MJO, even in unfavorable phases, very low amp or even in the COD, cooler to colder than average is definitely a strong possibility. Now regarding any chances for snow that is almost impossible to tell but postponing spring looks likely for the long term as of right now.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Shocked, I tell ya, that the SER gets beat down like it has all winter.

 

[LickWx]

Shocked, I tell ya, that the SER gets beat down like it has all winter.

What happened in December , first few days of January and now the entire second half of February ? Doesn’t seem like all winter .

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah we still have a southeast ridge dominated pattern for a week and a half coming up lol

 

[GaWx]

Not to mention, the MJO now looks to be very low amped and inside the circle after the next few days. Also as the Niña is continuing to die off, it could be setting a decent pattern in motion for a late season storm… I seem to recall that we’ve seen some late season storms in the past as Niñas have been fading away

Feb 25th-Mar 2nd 3”+ snow days at RDU: (12 of them)

2/25/1894: 5” (La Niña)
2/26/1914: 7” (El Niño)
2/26/1952: 3.5” (weakening El Niño)
2/26/1963: 6.9” (cold neutral)
2/26/2014: 3.2” (cold neutral)
2/27/1987: 5.2” (El Nino)
2/27/2004: 4.5” (warm neutral)
2/28/1937: 6.0” (neutral)
3/1/1969: 9.3” (El Niño)
3/2/1927: 17.8” (cold neutral)
3/2/1960: 6.5” (cold neutral)
3/2/1980: 9.0” (El Niño)

So, for 3”+ snow days at RDU 2/25-3/2, El Niño and cold neutral have been the most common ENSO phases rather than a (weakening) La Nina. But regardless, there having been 12 is very impressive. That means that when solid cold is showing up on the models during this period (2/25-3/2) to watch for the potential regardless of ENSO since every 11 years on average there has been a calendar day with 3”+ of snow during this only 6 day period:

1894, 1914, 1927, 1937, 1952, 1960, 1963, 1969, 1980, 1987, 2004, 2014

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

What happened in December , first few days of January and now the entire second half of February ? Doesn’t seem like all winter .

My electric bill would like a word lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I mean ---- this is impressive, I really thinking some may only get down to the mid 60s for lows during this time period, that’s some stuff you see in June and not to mention, the 12z EPS delayed the cold due to more ridge resistance, something to keep a eye on