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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Chazwin said:
If you remember how late January and February 2004 went, it started with that Super CAD storm and then seemed to have a few nickel and dime type events before getting absolutely nailed with the 2/26-27 storm…
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Yea I logged 17.5 off that 2/27/04 storm. Beat my 2000 Crusher and Mtns 93 Superstorm accums
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s a never ending buffet of +EAMT speeding up the pac jet and extending it. Lots of +AAM deposition. This feels like what a nino should be
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You can't ask for much more. I had stopped looking at the extended but this is encouraging. With the ser attempting to fight back at least some this might get ugly in the ice department
 
NCSNOW said:
Yea I logged 17.5 off that 2/27/04 storm. Beat my 2000 Crusher and Mtns 93 Superstorm accums
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19 inches for me, but I’m sure I had closer 21-22 as it had really started compacting when I measured 17 that morning… I actually got another 2 inches when the ULL actually did a reverse course later in the morning and started moving back SW
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah most of that probably isn't snow, but that map's a keeper.
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We would all be off the grid for the rest of February. Stock up now! I've never seen another run like this that I can remember.
zr_acc.us_ma.png

snku_acc.us_ma.png


And here's the last panel...
prateptype_cat.us_ma.png

sfct.us_ma.png
 
wxdaniel said:
The difference between last weeks signal on the storm this weekend vs. Todays storm signal for next weekend is there was a shortwave which model a three phased system. Today its been sold on a active stj and spinning off a miller a type hybrid?

Today:

View attachment 111007


Last week:

View attachment 111009
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Next weekend on the gfs is your classic 70s followed by winter storm setup. Pull the initial arctic front through drop another wave behind it and capitalize on the fresh cold in place. The 0z euro and 12z cmc show how easy it is to kind of mess that look up though and either be rain or cold/dry with the gfs splitting the difference
 
wxdaniel said:
The difference between last weeks signal on the storm this weekend vs. Todays storm signal for next weekend is there was a shortwave which model a three phased system. Today its been sold on a active stj and spinning off a miller a type hybrid?

Today:

View attachment 111007


Last week:

View attachment 111009
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Music to my ears. No more of this phasing crap. Just energy in the stj with a trough that goes neutral around the Mississippi would be great. Keep it simple.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_38.png
 
Broken024 said:
Obviously alot of this is ice. But that was a beginning to end ? run on GFS. SER is there though.
View attachment 110998
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If this map verifies, if would herald the beginning of a new Ice age in North Carolina. I've always wanted to go Wooly Mammoth hunting.
 
weatherfide said:
It is many days of low 20's at night and mid 40's during the day and bone dry. No fun in that. Hoping for more energy in the gulf and not so much suppression in the EPS.
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The thought that the EPS/EURO are showing similarities right now did entered my mind. How can the GFS continue to show both cold and a active STJ with almost no phasing is beyond me. I suspect tomorrow and/Saturday we will need to see a flip on both EPS/Euro for next weekend. Also, notice in this case the GFS seems to be kicking butt and is the first to the party.


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This is the second time this month the GFS has shown over 40 inches of snow accumulation for central NC. 3rd time over 30 inches. All these instances where separated by days, weeks time. Wasn't back to back consecutive runs. So far I've netted over 6 in my back yard. And probably lost close to that much the first snow we had on the day we flipped from midnight lows of 60 and it was snowing sheets of notebook paper by 8am.
 
weatherfide said:
It is many days of low 20's at night and mid 40's during the day and bone dry. No fun in that. Hoping for more energy in the gulf and not so much suppression in the EPS.
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And that’s highs in upper 20s and single digits lows here in VA. Maybe we reel in one more than all beg for torch??
 
A copy of a post of mine that I just made in the January thread, which was in there because I was bumping a February 1-14 ATL/RDU prediction that I made on January 17th after then being asked to make a February prediction:

Bumping this post of mine from January 17th during a period when the general discussion was centering on a potential overall pattern change to mild in early February as models were hinting at a warmup near February 1st as the PNA was then predicted to fall late this month. I was doubting that change to a mild pattern citing ENSO analogs (1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895), the MJO predictions (not the Euro phase 6 prog), and cold extended models (Euro weeklies/CFS) and was asked for a prediction:

“I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14.”

Looking at today’s models, I feel pretty good about this despite an expected mild February 1-3. Let’s see what happens.
 
GaWx said:
A copy of a post of mine that I just made in the January thread, which was in there because I was bumping a February 1-14 ATL/RDU prediction that I made on January 17th after then being asked to make a February prediction:

Bumping this post of mine from January 17th during a period when the general discussion was centering on a potential overall pattern change to mild in early February as models were hinting at a warmup near February 1st as the PNA was then predicted to fall late this month. I was doubting that change to a mild pattern citing ENSO analogs (1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895), the MJO predictions (not the Euro phase 6 prog), and cold extended models (Euro weeklies/CFS) and was asked for a prediction:

“I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14.”

Looking at today’s models, I feel pretty good about this despite an expected mild February 1-3. Let’s see what happens.
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