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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Maybe winter will give it another try. The frozen seems to be headed south at 384.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png
 
I looked up the RDU Febs with the highest of the month being 80+. I found 12 Febs in that category. I was curious to see how were the subsequent March's:

- the coldest in March averaged 23, which is right at the longterm average
- the mean snowfall was 0.7", somewhat below the longterm March average of 1.1". 1/4 of them had no snow and 1/4 had above average with 3.3" the heaviest (1932).
- the March average for the 12 came out to near normal (50.4 vs 50.7 longterm average).
- 3 of the 12 were AN, 5 were NN, 2 were BN, and 2 were MBN. The 4 that were BN or MBN averaged 1.5" of snow vs 1.1" longterm average. The 3 warmest had either no snow or a trace.
 
End of the GEFS ran much colder and more fun .. it’s fantasy land but an interesting development that may be due to that PV stretch it was showing on the 00z run. Can only be monitored right now as the warmth is INBOUND mostly low humidity though so it should be a well deserved break from the cold January we had
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
End of the GEFS ran much colder and more fun .. it’s fantasy land but an interesting development that may be due to that PV stretch it was showing on the 00z run. Can only be monitored right now as the warmth is INBOUND mostly low humidity though so it should be a well deserved break from the cold January we had
Click to expand...

The 0Z EPS is also colder late in the run. So whereas the warmup for next week is still there, what's different is that its end can already be seen now in the 0Z runs before March starts. It will be interesting to see what they have for their new MJO forecasts.

On another subject, my January 17th forecast for -3 or colder Feb 1-14 at both RDU and ATL failed badly:

Actual RDU: ~+1.5
Actual ATL: ~+1.2
 
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GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS is also colder late in the run. So whereas the warmup for next week is still there, what's different is that its end can already be seen now in the 0Z runs before March starts. It will be interesting to see what they have for their new MJO forecasts.

On another subject, my January 17th forecast for -3 or colder Feb 1-14 at both RDU and ATL failed badly:

Actual RDU: ~+1.5
Actual ATL: ~+1.2
Click to expand...
Larry, when is climo's last gasp in late Feb? We missed out on Valentine's day, but I recall there is another period after the 20th, and there are at least two places where cold and the gulf dance semi close together in the long range. Thanks.
 
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