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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Doc says hello. 1038mb sitting in prime location next Saturday. One more chance at 4th and goal and we will end up a inch short of the goalline.

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Well the current model runs are backing off the temps just a notch for later in the week. The GFS showing low to mid 70s for most on Thursday, a pretty good drop; looks like maybe some clouds. Euro backed off just a couple of degrees for Thurs as well, but both models bring in the relieving cool front quicker after and look a bit wedgier. The CMC is still the hottest, showing widespread 80s, but even that has backed down a couple of degrees (ICON similar). All 3 indicate a return to more seasonable temps after that. Nothing wintry but at least more typical and refreshing.

gfs_T2m_us_18.png


ecmwf_T2m_us_35.png


gem_T2m_us_18.png
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Well the current model runs are backing off the temps just a notch for later in the week. The GFS showing low to mid 70s for most on Thursday, a pretty good drop; looks like maybe some clouds. Euro backed off just a couple of degrees for Thurs as well, but both models bring in the relieving cool front quicker after and look a bit wedgier. The CMC is still the hottest, showing widespread 80s, but even that has backed down a couple of degrees (ICON similar). All 3 indicate a return to more seasonable temps after that. Nothing wintry but at least more typical and refreshing.

gfs_T2m_us_18.png


ecmwf_T2m_us_35.png


gem_T2m_us_18.png
Click to expand...
Actually still looks the same to me next Thursday, most guidance is upper 70s/80 A65149AC-2A12-422F-9E6B-26C02F8A9D7E.png42781B35-F2E8-4666-BB90-262AC78FB43E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Actually still looks the same to me next Thursday, most guidance is upper 70s/80 View attachment 133397View attachment 133398
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Yours are different maps, I'm just going off the 18z images from previous runs.

Regardless, this is record breaking stuff in many areas. GSP NWS forecast for Thurs is a high and low of 82/65 which would break all time monthly high records for both highs and lows; previous are 81 and 62. For perspective, the normal averages for Feb 23 at GSP are 58.8 and 36.4. GSP does not have an average high of 82 until May 24 and an average low of 65 until June 13th; and these are the readjusted normals! I guess if you like record heat in the winter this will be enjoyable but this is crazy town stuff.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS has trended much warmer early March, thanks to the very persistent -PNA, December 2021 is a great example of torching during a -NAO thanks to a -PNA, EPS mean temps are already widespread 60s during this time, some members already have 70sView attachment 133392>View attachment 133393View attachment 133395>View attachment 133394View attachment 133396
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Yeah when you look at the eps plumes there are cooler members but nothing supporting cold and snow, all of the noise in the day 8-10 disappeared as well
 
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