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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

ATLwxfan said:
Probably well above average to average high temps for many of us. The EPS mutes the torch a bit but upper 50’s to around 60 about what you’d expect in early March. Hardly any effects of the SSWE as of yet.


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You won’t see any effects of the SSWE until the 2nd week of March. If they happen at all. What we’re seeing right now with cooler temperatures showing in this time frame is a result of trends towards a stronger and lasting -NAO and the MJO progression out of warm phases and into low amp cold phases. Another thing to note is that ensembles and even some op runs are really beginning to key in on the idea of a dramatically expanding snow cover across the upper Midwest and the Northeast as this the MJO progresses.
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the updated teleconnections this morning… The NAO is now looking like it is really going to be tanking at the end of the month and as we head into early March and now the AO is beginning to trend towards negative as well… very similar to the NAO trends that started a few days ago. With the MJO heading through low amp phase 8, that’s really going to start muting the SER that will be dominating the next 7-10 days…even with a -PNA.
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Would'nt the -PNA reload Canada with Siberian cold?


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ILMRoss said:
yeah man just in time to kill off all the premature budding all the trees have been doing
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SD said:
The D8-10 system is worth watching. With the SER still in existence it probably trends N but it's got a little noise with it an on plumes
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As in winter weather?
 
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