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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

just not our year. i'm taking solace knowing it wasn't just us- basically every megalopolis on the east coast is suffering through a record warm and unsnowy winter. sometimes you just gotta concede you were outplayed and outcoach and move on. hoping that the resorts (wintergreen, beech mtn, those types) don't suffer from this too much
 
All that matters is we live in warm phases during winter regardless of what the ENSO state is and what once was already a thin needle to thread to get snow and consistent cold in the south has gotten even thinner these last several years. I remember folks wanting to switch back to La Ninas before the last 3 years because at least we would have opportunities at big artic air in between the warm spells. Turns out it doesn't matter as the MJO is the driver of our patterns in the winter and until we stop living in warm phases that screws the Pacific all to hell, we will continue to see the winters from the last 5 years where everyone gets 1 nice storm every blue moon. I've seen enough now to know that it doesn't matter what the ENSO state is anymore. All La Nina did was help take a SER dominated pattern and kick it into overdrive as soon as we got to the typical February torch that you see in La Ninas. Areas that have the best shot at winter weather is those in the extreme western south where they right near the cold to be able to tap into it & CAD regions (still far and few between). Our patterns of CAD to keep my area relatively normal but not cold enough for consistent winter weather. Areas east of 77 are the ones I really feel for because it really takes the most perfect setup to get anything south of 85 and east of 77 these days. It might sound like whining but the results are right in front of you and they are one nice storm in Jan 22 and not a thing other than a handful of grass toppers and frozen tree tops since 2018.
 
ILMRoss said:
just not our year. i'm taking solace knowing it wasn't just us- basically every megalopolis on the east coast is suffering through a record warm and unsnowy winter. sometimes you just gotta concede you were outplayed and outcoach and move on. hoping that the resorts (wintergreen, beech mtn, those types) don't suffer from this too much
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This has been the Charlotte Hornets of winters
 
Brent said:
We've hit 90 in February twice before surprisingly (1911 and 1996)... I guess if it can happen here it can happen over there...
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It can but it's much harder. Our all time high is only 105F.


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I am skeptical we actually reach this record mid 80 to upper 80 temps here on Thursday. There does seem to be some clouds in the region through the afternoon hours. I have a hard time believing they dont at least keep us below record limits. If we had full sun I would be all in for it but I just dont see it right now.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I am skeptical we actually reach this record mid 80 to upper 80 temps here on Thursday. There does seem to be some clouds in the region through the afternoon hours. I have a hard time believing they dont at least keep us below record limits. If we had full sun I would be all in for it but I just dont see it right now.
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The fact that it's even on the table for discussion tells you everything you need to know about where we are.
 
BHS1975 said:
I'm thinking it's the warming of the waters in the WPAC which isn't going to change anytime soon.


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Wonder if there is below sea level volcano,geo thermal activity at play here.
 
Rain Cold said:
The fact that it's even on the table for discussion tells you everything you need to know about where we are.
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absolutely its all impressive warmth no way you slice it. I am just skeptical on reaching record highest max in February (85+) on Thursday due to clouds being in the way. If those clouds clear over the next couple days then obviously that changes things.
 
Heartbreaking to see non stop western troughing on the GFS and its deep, super amped troughs too.

Outside of the Great Lakes region, this really might go down as the “Winter that never was” in the eastern united states and I say this as someone who did see accumulating snow this winter. NYC has still yet to see accumulating snow. Just absurdity to me.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Heartbreaking to see non stop western troughing on the GFS and its deep, super amped troughs too.

Outside of the Great Lakes region, this really might go down as the “Winter that never was” in the eastern united states and I say this as someone who did see accumulating snow this winter. NYC has still yet to see accumulating snow. Just absurdity to me.
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NYC is going to thread the needle the next few weeks and should score some accumulation in March as the ridge relaxes. Plentiful chances with the -NAO.

They’ve definitely had winter out west. Snow has been plentiful in many areas. We may see snow in the coastal mountains of Southern California in the next week!

It may be heartbreaking to see a persistent trough out west but also pretty remarkable too. We live in a time where patterns love to persist. It will be interesting to see if we truly transition to an El Niño and what the implications will be for our weather next winter if any at all.

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