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Pattern Fabulous February

RollTide18 said:
Hit 89 in early March here about 2-3 years ago, definitely gets you in the mood for spring then the cold comes to bring you back to reality.
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Yeah agree, to the point where i just want it to stay warm, cold blast tomorrow/this weekend is a disappointment for sure because what are we gaining from it ? Nothing :(
 
The warmest day this early in the calendar year at Charlotte was Feb 3, 1989 where we hit 81F, I think we could seriously challenge that today.
It managed to snow 2 times later in February 1989, with that storm on the 17th-19th being preceded by temps near 80F within 36 hours of the event beginning. So much for warm ground temps.

February 17-19 1989 NC Snowmap.png
February 23-24 1989 NC Snowmap.png
 
seems obvious snow in Seattle almost always = no snow in Atlanta as usually trough in west usually = ridge in east. I'd be curious if we compare times when it widespread snowed in the southeast, what exactly was the weather in Seattle, as in what was the temp, what was the weather there. seems pretty cut and dry, but wonder if the data was compared, would something stick out in terms of Seattle weather when we got a hit in the SE. like if you found that while it was always warm in Seattle during a hit here, did 80% of the time it was rainy and warm, or clear and warm, etc. Some numbers only Larry could pull probably.
 
GFS with another large swing in solutions. Look at west coast trough.
 

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Webberweather53 said:
The warmest day this early in the calendar year at Charlotte was Feb 3, 1989 where we hit 81F, I think we could seriously challenge that today.
It managed to snow 2 times later in February 1989, with that storm on the 17th-19th being preceded by temps near 80F within 36 hours of the event beginning. So much for warm ground temps.

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It will be interesting to see if this record warmth is balanced out by some solid cold to end the month. It would seem that’s what happened February of 1989?
 
NGTim said:
seems obvious snow in Seattle almost always = no snow in Atlanta as usually trough in west usually = ridge in east. I'd be curious if we compare times when it widespread snowed in the southeast, what exactly was the weather in Seattle, as in what was the temp, what was the weather there. seems pretty cut and dry, but wonder if the data was compared, would something stick out in terms of Seattle weather when we got a hit in the SE. like if you found that while it was always warm in Seattle during a hit here, did 80% of the time it was rainy and warm, or clear and warm, etc. Some numbers only Larry could pull probably.
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I don't need to do it as your assumption is correct. -PNA = NW US cold/SE US warm. Major snow in Seattle is almost never a good sign for the SE.
 
snowlover91 said:
It will be interesting to see if this record warmth is balanced out by some solid cold to end the month. It would seem that’s what happened February of 1989?
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Well. we know it is being balanced now by major cold in the NW half of the US. Also, the first half of Feb of 2019 is looking to be much warmer than Feb of 1989. Whereas the first half of Feb of 1989 averaged warm, it actually had a few well below normal days with the lowest at 21 at KATL. This time nothing like that is being forecasted with the lowest only down to near 32.

Since records started 1879-80, I was unable to find even one Feb that turned around from a very warm 2/1-14 to a solidly cold 2/15-28 at ATL. But perhaps we'll get some solid cold late month for a few days.
 
GaWx said:
Well. we know it is being balanced now by major cold in the NW half of the US. Also, the first half of Feb of 2019 is looking to be much warmer than Feb of 1989. Whereas the first half of Feb of 1989 averaged warm, it actually had a few well below normal days with the lowest at 21. This time nothing like that is being forecasted with the lowest only down to near 32.

Since records started 1879-80, I was unable to find no Feb that turned around from a very warm 2/1-14 to a solidly cold 2/15-28. But perhaps we'll get some solid cold late month for a few days.
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Interesting, thanks for sharing that data and research, I always enjoy reading your posts! I haven't seen the D11-15 EPS posted recently, I'm assuming they've taken a step back from the colder pattern to a warmer one?
 
GaWx said:
I don't need to do it as your assumption is correct. -PNA = NW US cold/SE US warm. Major snow in Seattle is almost never a good sign for the SE.
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yes I'm sort of ashamed i even asked that question. I guess where i'm going with this, is, it seems when we are say a day or two out from a storm chance, if we had some kind of other marker to look at instead of just going to the short range models, and then watching the sky, since most of the time something goes wrong. Maybe its not Seattle, but maybe there is some other city that showed "x" almost everytime the storm worked out for us say between ATL and Charlotte. I chose Seattle cause its about as opposite as you can get from the SE. something like this would take big data and is sort of mby'ish. Just trying to think outside the box. thanks for the reply though!
 
snowlover91 said:
Interesting, thanks for sharing that data and research, I always enjoy reading your posts! I haven't seen the D11-15 EPS posted recently, I'm assuming they've taken a step back from the colder pattern to a warmer one?
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Thank you. This morning's 0Z EPS was awful overall. Only near and at the very end of it was so-so/similar to the prior run. But I don't care much about the mirage at hour 360 when hours 168-312 are much warmer overall.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The warmest day this early in the calendar year at Charlotte was Feb 3, 1989 where we hit 81F, I think we could seriously challenge that today.
It managed to snow 2 times later in February 1989, with that storm on the 17th-19th being preceded by temps near 80F within 36 hours of the event beginning. So much for warm ground temps.

View attachment 15250
View attachment 15249
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Be nice to get a repeat. Another example of it being really warm here followed by snow just a few days later.
 
GaWx said:
This morning's 0Z EPS was awful overall. Only near and at the very end of it was so-so/similar to the prior run. But I don't care much about the mirage at hour 360 when hours 168-312 are much warmer overall.
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Thanks, I figured it must have been pretty bad. It'll be interesting to see how the 12z goes.
 
12Z GFS pattern: "SE ridges r us" in the 11-15 day period fwiw though it has a major ZR in much of the SE on 1/22-3 lmao if anyone really cares.
 
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