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Pattern Fabulous February

EmersonGA said:
Really? We stayed cloudy and never got above 50 all day yesterday. I guess I didn’t look at a map.
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Yeah, I noticed the tight temperature/sky cover gradient yesterday.

The edge of the low clouds pretty much remained stationary along a Carrollton-Douglasville-Roswell-Cumming line for much of the afternoon.

Areas SE of there got well into the 60s and 70s.
 
EmersonGA said:
Really? We stayed cloudy and never got above 50 all day yesterday. I guess I didn’t look at a map.
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I thought it was supposed to get warm yesterday, but I went outside around 4:30 and it was 49F. It kinda took me for a surprise.
 
I'll take a double order of the FV3, please.
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
Looking long range, feb 27-30, the hope of our return( onset) to arctic winter seems to depend on how strong and how far south the eastern pac high extends.If it will push the approaching LP south (Southern Cal) delaying its arrival, winter is on....if not, a few cool shots in the last good days of winter.
just the way it looks to me fwiw;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Euro still buying the potential for a brief rain, sleet, snow mix Tuesday night and into early Wednesday over the Carolinas and parts of N GA. Looks trivial at best, but it's better than nothing

View attachment 15844
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Wasn't expecting this to develop this much but now it looks possible. Soundings on the 3K NAM and other models seem to suggest sleet up this way as well. Doubt it'll be much.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Wasn't expecting this to develop this much but now it looks possible. Soundings on the 3K NAM and other models seem to suggest sleet up this way as well. Doubt it'll be much.
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Yeah it won't be much but it'll at least keep us preoccupied through this crappy pattern. Very similar setup to those November ice storms in the mountains and far western piedmont except there could be a more expansive area of snow/sleet mix at the onset across central NC
 
Even the latest FV3 doesn’t get ATL another freeze until at least 3/4 and has no 32 even nearby. That would mean the lowest this month of 34, the warmest coldest reading in Feb in recorded history (back to 1879).
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Can you explain what is going on here? And what you’re trying to say?
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With frontogenesis/lift like that, that argues for a more expansive precip field or “nose”, models often underestimate the amount of precip at onset, we need that nose of precip to form or enter the Carolinas for a much better chance of snow since all it would do is likely cool the column
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
With frontogenesis/lift like that, that argues for a more expansive precip field or “nose”, models often underestimate the amount of precip at onset, we need that nose of precip to form or enter the Carolinas for a much better chance of snow since all it would do is likely cool the column
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That’s what I thought just never really knew what that product meant
 
February over half gone... march fast approaching... isn't time to fire up the spring thread yet.... winter thread gets started months before winter even starts... lol something to ponder upon...
 
The LR EPS obviously looks legitimately better and the way the crappy pattern/SE Ridge is depicted to dampen &/or break down breaks down is far more believable than the -NAO route some were advertising earlier this past week. We've been at a very unfortunate position where we have a moderately intense and slightly suppressed anticyclone in the NE Pacific, a very amplified and poleward NE Pac high or Aleutian Low would be capable of breaking down the SER. We're going to take the amplified/poleward high route as a big high is forecast to go up in Alaska, this would dislodge a huge chunk of the polar vortex and send it hurtling into North America.

It's hard to actually know what the sensible local impacts would be on the weather around here, but the poleward/intense NE Pac/Alaskan high patterns are usually boom or bust as far as cold air is concerned with relatively seasonable weather interspersed with episodes of extremely intense arctic outbreaks, whereas an Aleutian Low pattern would be more consistently cool-mild but the strongest arctic air masses are generally weaker. Pick your poison both have significant benefits and drawbacks, but this pattern is clearly capable of producing and has done so the last several years. Given that we're nearing the tail end of most of our legitimate climatological snowfall windows, this is probably the pattern most here need to even be cold enough at all to get significant snow/ice at the tail end of February and early March.

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_nhem_1.png

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Well that 1058 mb high never makes much headway into the SE, but the followup 1045 mb high on the 12Z GFS has a +PNA all of the sudden and early March is once again looking like the restart of winter with near a record low of just below 0 in Chi on 3/3 and 2 hard freezes in much of the SE 3/3-4.
 
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