Jon
Member
18z Euro looks interesting for the border counties. 850mb temps well above 0c though.
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
NAM much colder in CAD areas of NC. Icy
A huge wildcard with the storms is the extent and speed of the initial precip shield ... lots of the times models are drier and moisten up quicker and precip spreads further out faster with these types of storms.. I think if we can get precip in early enough we have a better chance at a more wintry scenario ... honestly if I get sleet with this south east ridge after all this negativity recently I’ll TAKE IT
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
ICON coming in only about 8 degrees colder than 18Z run
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS throwing me a big bone.
NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
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Yep models keep trending more n more wintry every run.
Ladies and gentlemen, we got em
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Trying not to get reeled in too far. I want to see this get in the 3k NAM and RGEM range before I get too excited. I do feel that whoever west of 77 gets under a real heavy band will switch to heavy heavy snow for a while.
Hot off the press from Cosgrove: he's sort of giving up on winter for the SE:
"This has somewhat of a painful winter in the sense that, while intrusions of bitter cold and periods of heavy snow and ice have been seen in the U.S., the southern and eastern tiers have largely been left out of the "fun". There are always excuses present, and the one that stands out as viable is that recurrent, strong subtropical jet stream that did not behave in "typical" El Nino fashion. Usually a cold signal for forecasters, the warm and moist fetch from the equatorial Pacific Ocean has consistently made its run from Texas up through, and west of, the Appalachian Mountains. That alignment is a formula for "snow disappointment" along the Interstate 20 and 95 corridors. Yes, I mean Dallas TX, Atlanta GA, and Philadelphia PA.
With the clock running down, and the sun getting ever higher in the sky, our chances to see a truly synoptic scale Arctic intrusion and major winter storm of the "Miller A" type are decreasing sharply. Keep in mind that the calendar date for the equinox (March 21) is more useful in cold weather climatology than the start of "meteorological spring", March 1. This is because nature follows different rules than data storage, what with cold air aloft, chilled waters, and a deep snow cover to be gotten rid of. So if for some reason, luck or serendipity grants the Dixie states and Eastern Seaboard, there is still more than a month in which this "miracle of the flakes" could happen.
But I am honestly not optimistic about such a turn of fortune, for two reasons. The increased presence of a subtropical high, often tied to a developing La Nina, cannot be denied. Occasionally suppressed in the numerical model runs, the previous day set of numerical model runs had a possible James Bay vortex and extensive cold pretty much everywhere in the lower 48 states in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day period. The most recent guidance covering the longer term and next month shows the usual back-up, with warmer thermal anomalies reclaiming the Gulf Coast, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard. Yes, it will be quite cold in the interior with another ridge build-up in Alaska, but there is no Greenland or Baffin Island block present to keep atmospheric heights low in the New England and Mid-Atlantic states."
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My opinion is that early March is still way up in the air due to the typical seasonal shortening of H5 wavelengths. It may be over but perhaps not. Note that his timing and JB's on giving up coincided quite closely in time.
"This has somewhat of a painful winter in the sense that, while intrusions of bitter cold and periods of heavy snow and ice have been seen in the U.S., the southern and eastern tiers have largely been left out of the "fun". There are always excuses present, and the one that stands out as viable is that recurrent, strong subtropical jet stream that did not behave in "typical" El Nino fashion. Usually a cold signal for forecasters, the warm and moist fetch from the equatorial Pacific Ocean has consistently made its run from Texas up through, and west of, the Appalachian Mountains. That alignment is a formula for "snow disappointment" along the Interstate 20 and 95 corridors. Yes, I mean Dallas TX, Atlanta GA, and Philadelphia PA.
With the clock running down, and the sun getting ever higher in the sky, our chances to see a truly synoptic scale Arctic intrusion and major winter storm of the "Miller A" type are decreasing sharply. Keep in mind that the calendar date for the equinox (March 21) is more useful in cold weather climatology than the start of "meteorological spring", March 1. This is because nature follows different rules than data storage, what with cold air aloft, chilled waters, and a deep snow cover to be gotten rid of. So if for some reason, luck or serendipity grants the Dixie states and Eastern Seaboard, there is still more than a month in which this "miracle of the flakes" could happen.
But I am honestly not optimistic about such a turn of fortune, for two reasons. The increased presence of a subtropical high, often tied to a developing La Nina, cannot be denied. Occasionally suppressed in the numerical model runs, the previous day set of numerical model runs had a possible James Bay vortex and extensive cold pretty much everywhere in the lower 48 states in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day period. The most recent guidance covering the longer term and next month shows the usual back-up, with warmer thermal anomalies reclaiming the Gulf Coast, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard. Yes, it will be quite cold in the interior with another ridge build-up in Alaska, but there is no Greenland or Baffin Island block present to keep atmospheric heights low in the New England and Mid-Atlantic states."
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My opinion is that early March is still way up in the air due to the typical seasonal shortening of H5 wavelengths. It may be over but perhaps not. Note that his timing and JB's on giving up coincided quite closely in time.
snowlover91
Member
00z GEFS has a wintry look to start.
0Z GEFS: SE never gets to a decidedly cold pattern. Our SER weakens late, but then it mainly goes to a more or less zonal flow in early March. Better than the Feb warmth at least if the warmth actually leaving can even be believed. But not showing that strong +PNA returning like it showed yesterday for early March. I expect the King to be a snoozer, but what will the EPS 11-15 day say? I'm not optimistic but let's see.
Brent
Member
Yay
0Z FV3: much warmer than the past 3 runs in Midwest (what a shocker lol) and SE never gets that cold in early March. Just a light freeze ATL one day in March before warming back up if you can even believe the light freeze it shows.
What a waste. I still think we have a shot later this month and into early March.
I hope you're right, Chris, and I'm certainly not giving up for early March since it is still 12 days away and seeing the very -SOIs of recent days, but the 0Z model trends so far have not been what I wanted to see at all. There are forces out there that we don't understand just won't allow the SE to get cold this met. winter for the most part. Now that N Pac blocking high is screwing us up by teleconnecting to our SER. Maybe the key in finally getting out of this mess is to get into met. spring/shorter H5 wavelengths?? But I'm not holding my breath,
I might stay up to watch the Euro rip my onset trace away. Nothing like a good gut punch before bed
CAD Looks more entrenched vs the past euro
We made it to 72*F yesterday after the rain ended and had a mix of sun and clouds for the remainder of the day.
We could make it to 70*F+ again today if the warm front can overcome the CAD wedge. Models are giving mixed signals, as some push the front as far north as Atlanta while other only push it as far north as LaGrange.
We could make it to 70*F+ again today if the warm front can overcome the CAD wedge. Models are giving mixed signals, as some push the front as far north as Atlanta while other only push it as far north as LaGrange.
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Really? We stayed cloudy and never got above 50 all day yesterday. I guess I didn’t look at a map.