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Pattern Fabulous February

Folks will like the 12Z GEFS as it has the weakest SER 2/24+. When was the last time I said something like that? As a result, the real torch ends 2/24 followed by back and forth that averages near normal 2/25-8 before it gets cold in early March. Also, a strong +PNA forms by 3/1 and going forward with some cross polar flow. In addition, a Greenland block is then in place and the -EPO remains. MJO forecasts have us around phase 1. So, in early March we'd have a +PNA/-EPO/Greenland blocking/MJO phase of 1 in a weak, Modoki El Nino. Winter lovers, what more could you ask for?
 
cd2play said:
We'll get the cold March (actually cold enough to support snow, not last year's crap fest of 36 and slop) and all the weather systems will get squashed, sheared. Mother nature has something against us.
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Regardless, the good news is that the first week of March is still early enough that it can easily still produce wintry magic, even down to Phil's place!
 
GaWx said:
Folks will like the 12Z GEFS as it has the weakest SER 2/24+. When was the last time I said something like that? As a result, the real torch ends 2/24 followed by back and forth that averages near normal 2/25-8 before it gets cold in early March. Also, a strong +PNA forms by 3/1 and going forward with some cross polar flow. In addition, a Greenland block is then in place and the -EPO remains. MJO forecasts have us around phase 1. So, in early March we'd have a +PNA/-EPO/Greenland blocking/MJO phase of 1 in a weak, Modoki El Nino. Winter lovers, what more could you ask for?
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So your saying , March 1960 redux!?
 
I can’t see surface maps but the HIGH on the euro definitely strengthened a lot vs it’s previous run... a good trend but is it good enough?
 
GaWx said:
Folks will like the 12Z GEFS as it has the weakest SER 2/24+. When was the last time I said something like that? As a result, the real torch ends 2/24 followed by back and forth that averages near normal 2/25-8 before it gets cold in early March. Also, a strong +PNA forms by 3/1 and going forward with some cross polar flow. In addition, a Greenland block is then in place and the -EPO remains. MJO forecasts have us around phase 1. So, in early March we'd have a +PNA/-EPO/Greenland blocking/MJO phase of 1 in a weak, Modoki El Nino. Winter lovers, what more could you ask for?
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Well, for starters, this pattern back in January. March is too late for Atlanta. I know, don't start with the "but, but, super storm blizzard, 8" snow in the 80's" crap. You can always find a rare exception to anything.
 
weatherfide said:
Well, for starters, this pattern back in January. March is too late for Atlanta. I know, don't start with the "but, but, super storm blizzard, 8" snow in the 80's" crap. You can always find a rare exception to anything.
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March has had too many winter storms to call them just rare exceptions at ATL. Here are just the significant to major ones: 2009, 1993, 1987, 1983, 1980, 1971, 3 in 1960, 1948, 1942, and 1924. That's about one every 10 years since 1900.

** Edit: El Nino ones: 1987, 1983, 1980, 1942, and 1924.
 
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GaWx said:
Early March has had too many winter storms to call them just rare exceptions at ATL. Here are just the significant to major ones: 2009, 1993, 1987, 1983, 1980, 1971, 3 in 1960, 1948, 1942, and 1924. That's about one every 10 years since 1900.
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And 10 years since the last one...

Maybe a favorable pattern will be established by the first of March. It's the best chance we've got at this point.
 
Here's one of the surface maps for the euro. There was almost zero frozen below VA on the 0z. It seems like all 12z runs were colder for the CAD areas.
1550256093476.png
 
If I lived on the eastern facing slopes/ foothills of Nc no joke I’d prepare for a ice storm..... when you see models trending colder like this, normally that wedge can be extremely difficult to scour out especially areas around hickory/other parts of the foothills, it’s actually crazy sometimes how hard it is to scour a CAD in those areas while CLT can be in the 50s/60s and hickory stuck in the 30s/40s
 
Looks like the models are definitely trending colder now with the mid week system. Still some time to go for them to keep trending colder. But will it be cold enough for folks further east and south in NC?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Well Fv3 still seeing a big hit for NC even SC upstate ... it’s literally inside 100 hours of it doesn’t pick up a coup here this model is worse than the DGEX:(
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Yeah, usually when we get around 6 days out is when the FV3 has backed off before, but it is still holding strong for a big NC hit.
 
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