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Pattern Fabulous February

Out to hr 150 on the Euro, and it's been raining for about 3-3.5 days straight already in parts of north-central MS, AL, GA, southern TN, NW SC, and parts of NC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Another s/w is emerging from the s/w at day 10 and another big slug of rain is coming east so no end in sight potentially lol.
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Yeah as long as the SER holds firm it’ll be wave after wave of rain as these chunks of energy keep moving onshore. Could be some flooding issues if it materializes as modeled.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Another s/w is emerging from the s/w at day 10 and another big slug of rain is coming east so no end in sight potentially lol.
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Of course. Probably means the GFS is right about the perpetual rain. Driven by the SER and constant troughs out west just bombarding us. If we didn't have this ridge we probably would be discussing getting a winter storm. :rolleyes:
 
Here comes our attempt at a -NAO I've talked about for several days now showing up even more markedly on the Euro...

The very persistent trough & parade of cyclonic wave breaking near the Azores is finally making inroads near the end of this run to amplify and retrograde the Scandinavian high towards Greenland. It's about the only thing we have going for us consistently from run-to-run in the models. If the big North Pac high migrates up towards Alaska and the Pacific-Arctic as is the case here, then we'd really be cooking w/ peanut oil at the very end of February & early march.

Also notice, a typhoon develops in the West Pac later next week (also on the GFS but obviously stronger). The waveguide-typhoon interactions are different at this time of the year but that might be one more card we have left to play to get a good pattern at the last possible second this winter.
ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11 (1).png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Here comes our attempt at a -NAO I've talked about for several days now showing up even more markedly on the Euro...

The very persistent trough & parade of cyclonic wave breaking near the Azores is finally making inroads near the end of this run to amplify and retrograde the Scandinavian high towards Greenland. It's about the only thing we have going for us consistently from run-to-run in the models. If the big North Pac high migrates up towards Alaska and the Pacific-Arctic as is the case here, then we'd really be cooking w/ peanut oil at the very end of February & early march.

Also notice, a typhoon develops in the West Pac later next week (also on the GFS but obviously stronger). The waveguide-typhoon interactions are different at this time of the year but that might be one more card we have left to play to get a good pattern at the last possible second this winter.
View attachment 15720
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In theory if we get a solid -NAO block, I assume it could also link to the ridge over Alaska and squash the SER in the process? I assume a 5h look something like this would be possible if that indeed occurs?

1550173068383.png
 
snowlover91 said:
In theory if we get a solid -NAO block, I assume it could also link to the ridge over Alaska and squash the SER in the process? I assume a 5h look something like this would be possible if that indeed occurs?

View attachment 15723
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In a basic sense, momentarily ignoring how we'd need to achieve any of what I'm talking about below, in order to get rid of the SE US ridge we need to do one or more of the following:
1) Completely destroy or amplify the GOA/NP blocking high into the Pacific-arctic so that it dumps an absurd amount of cold air into the mean trough over the Hudson Bay/Lakes s.t. it slides SEward, squashing the SER into the Western Atlantic
2) Create a -NAO that retrogrades all the way towards the Davis Straits and eastern/northern Canada, forcing a persistent upper level trough over Atlantic Canada/New England that suppresses the high also well offshore. A merger of both blocks over the arctic would result in a polar vortex split that would allow a substantial piece of the PV to drop into Canada as we observed in January, what happens thereafter is up for speculation but at least gives us something we might be able to work w/ to produce a winter storm.
 
Interesting changes on 12Z EPS in 11-15 in Canada and N tier of US with much sharper dip/cross polar flow at H5. It doesn't cool the SE any but let's see if this is a sign of changes ahead in later runs that could possibly finally cool the SE by early March. We haven't seen an EPS 11-15 day run like that in a good number of days. Unfortunately, we've repeatedly been through this as fake news with cross polar flow, etc. Is this still more kayfabe?
 
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For as much as some people like to wish cast a central Pacific/modoki El Nino every damn winter (*cough* cough* Joe bastardi), it's doing us absolutely no good right now. Actually it's doing exactly the opposite in reinforcing this really crappy pattern we have right now.

Notice all the excess convection (-OLR) near the International Dateline in the central Pacific yet the equatorward propagating wave train emanating from the NE Pacific to SE US & western Atlantic is putting a huge ridge (solid contours) right smack over the E US.

News flash: the seasonal cycle, the background state, & internal variability actually matter!! Also, yes modoki El Nino forcing can still create and even enhance very crappy patterns around here, there's not always going to be a trough in the SE US.


Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at 2.51.41 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
In a basic sense, momentarily ignoring how we'd need to achieve any of what I'm talking about below, in order to get rid of the SE US ridge we need to do one or more of the following:
1) Completely destroy or amplify the GOA/NP blocking high into the Pacific-arctic so that it dumps an absurd amount of cold air into the mean trough over the Hudson Bay/Lakes s.t. it slides SEward, squashing the SER into the Western Atlantic
2) Create a -NAO that retrogrades all the way towards the Davis Straits and eastern/northern Canada, forcing a persistent upper level trough over Atlantic Canada/New England that suppresses the high also well offshore. A merger of both blocks over the arctic would result in a polar vortex split that would allow a substantial piece of the PV to drop into Canada as we observed in January, what happens thereafter is up for speculation but at least gives us something we might be able to work w/ to produce a winter storm.
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Yeah that's what I was thinking too, if we were to actually get a solid -NAO block it might connect with the Pacific one splitting the PV and forcing colder air into the Eastern US and squashing the SER. We will be running out of time though as this is all 10+ days out and we will be at the very end of February IF this even happens.
 
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