Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We don’t live at 500mb tho
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not to sound negative here but I deal with this index in my masters research and that’s because the soi is literally the noisiest and the worst index to use if you’re measuring tropical forcing, I don’t honestly know why people pay so much attention to it because we have much better ways to measure tropical forcing now than we did in the early-mid 20th century. The only real use the SOI has is for comparison of ancient ENSO events but even then I’d urge everyone to use it sparingly because you have to use very large smoothing filters to even get a signal. Point based indices like the SOI suck, there’s no getting around that fact, area averaging like EQ SOI, NIÑO 3.4, etc are better and those that use EOFs over a given region are arguably even better.
snowlover91
Member
Well at least the one positive is spring will get an early start, if it's not going to snow and be cold then bring on the 70s. I'm sure the EPS and Euro run today will be quite toasty too.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This winter is/was undoubtedly an El Niño winter despite what the North American pattern looks like. I already said this several days ago but the big reason we’re warm right now is actually because a more formidable El Niño is trying to come on for the upcoming year, the pattern response in Feb and Mar from west-central Pacific convection/-SOI is actually for warmth in the SE US... The seasonal cycle and jet wavelengths matter a lot and people and pro mets alike ignore them assuming that the same forcing at different times of the year provides the same result and it clearly doesn’t, this feb is another fine example of that.
Jon
Member
Last 20 runs of the GEFS for Day 10. Ridge was consistently modeled but as Larry has pointed out its verifying much stronger.
Still, with that said, I don’t see a trough modeled in that sampling.
IF the GEFS is correct, we are moving toward the pattern change.
5-day
11-16 day, look at the pacific. Completely different here.
This is a smoothed 5 day mean, so it has Day 11 in there, which is this
I know it’s a long way away, but 2/28 forward seems doable. At least for cold. I have my doubts a ridge will suddenly pop for this period solely due to the fact that we are finally getting rid of the pacific ridge.
Of course, the euro has left little to be excited about. If I was a betting man, I’d be team EPS. I really hope the Euro EPS caves soon or we are in trouble.
I still think for a SE snow we need a -NAO at this point, and models aren’t bringing that around any time soon. Maybe the biggest question is do you want an early spring or normal temps?
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Still, with that said, I don’t see a trough modeled in that sampling.
IF the GEFS is correct, we are moving toward the pattern change.
5-day
11-16 day, look at the pacific. Completely different here.
This is a smoothed 5 day mean, so it has Day 11 in there, which is this
I know it’s a long way away, but 2/28 forward seems doable. At least for cold. I have my doubts a ridge will suddenly pop for this period solely due to the fact that we are finally getting rid of the pacific ridge.
Of course, the euro has left little to be excited about. If I was a betting man, I’d be team EPS. I really hope the Euro EPS caves soon or we are in trouble.
I still think for a SE snow we need a -NAO at this point, and models aren’t bringing that around any time soon. Maybe the biggest question is do you want an early spring or normal temps?
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Good post, Jon.
The FV3 will give you all the -NAO you want...if you just wait long enough:
The funny thing is, that last image is pretty much right on target with the look that JB has been predicting would take place from 2/15 - 3/15. The models show it from time to time, but they never get there.
The FV3 will give you all the -NAO you want...if you just wait long enough:
The funny thing is, that last image is pretty much right on target with the look that JB has been predicting would take place from 2/15 - 3/15. The models show it from time to time, but they never get there.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The only real positive large-scale takeaway in the long range continues to be the equatorward propagation of the Atlantic jet next week and cyclonic wave breaking near the Azores, which means we're going to make a big push to crank out a legitimate -NAO at the tail end of February into early March.
Remember, there's supposed to be a subtropical high in the means over the Azores, putting a big trough there will instigate an atmospheric traffic jam that may lead to significant Greenland blocking down the line but we'll see.
Remember, there's supposed to be a subtropical high in the means over the Azores, putting a big trough there will instigate an atmospheric traffic jam that may lead to significant Greenland blocking down the line but we'll see.
Jon
Member
Crappy map, but I'm not sure this is a good look? Does it snow under the orange colors?
pcbjr
Member
Every day, April through October, and then some ...
packfan98
Moderator
Pretty stout wedging signature on the Euro. It's quite a bit colder at the surface than 0z. Makes that rain extra cold...
RollTide18
Member
2015-16?
Yes, 2015-6 is the warmest at least at KATL. That record is now in jeopardy of being broken.
snowlover91
Member
Nice and toasty. If only we could get this to flip.
Even with the wedging showing up?
There were numerous wind reports across the southern half of the ATL metro (including here)
There was even a Tornado Waening issued for Clayton County.
Sadly, there was no lightning with the line (other than one lone strike around Macon).