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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Slowly losing our help from the Pacific..ruh roh
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Edit: at least those deep blues are dislodging over AK
 
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Thoughts from Ray’s Weather Center on next weekend’s potential:

“Next week features three lows moving west to east across the Gulf: Monday, Wednesday, and next weekend. The strength of each remains in doubt; however, best thinking at this point is a rather ho-hum week with the potential for a more potent system next weekend. Yesterday, I saw foolish speculation already related next weekend; today's model guidance provides a dose of reality with a weaker/less cold system. Point being... no one knows how next weekend will play out.”
 
18z GEFS is one of the most active runs I’ve seen this winter. Seeing digital snow keeps me hopeful, but we haven’t been able to score yet.
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18z GEFS is one of the most active runs I’ve seen this winter. Seeing digital snow keeps me hopeful, but we haven’t been able to score yet.
GEFSMA_prec_meansnacc_384.png
I noticed that as well. Interesting
 
That system feb 7-9th timeframe. Wouldn’t take much to give places a 1-3 inch type event like north of 85 in South Carolina and NE Georgia.
 
I don't hate this MJO forecast at all. The Euro is similar I think. Mostly stays in the circle. I'm more concerned about getting HLB and if we do I hope it's in a favorable spot.
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E- this isn’t better, really looks bad after 2/8. I can see maybe another loop wanting to happen. I would rather it stay in the circle as well but that’s asking a lot this year.


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E- this isn’t better, really looks bad after 2/8. I can see maybe another loop wanting to happen. I would rather it stay in the circle as well but that’s asking a lot this year.


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That may be why it was trying to pump another GOA ridge and -PNA. Either way if it says in the circle it seems I remember someone's research that Atlanta does well in the circle around phase 4.
 
That may be why it was trying to pump another GOA ridge and -PNA. Either way if it says in the circle it seems I remember someone's research that Atlanta does well in the circle around phase 4.

Yes Atlanta folks want it in the circle, 8 or 1. No one wants it in 4 or 5. That’s a death sentence.


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That system feb 4/5th is suppressed if it can trend north there’s cold air. I think GEFS may have a couple good members that indicate a potential


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