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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

NCSNOW said:
That would be nice powdery snow perhaps with -10 850's back this way. Nice to look at with euro spitting same thing.
What could possibly go wrong over the next 10 days as we real this in? LOL!
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Well, we just had a nice surprise just 3 days ago. Perhaps a new trend toward glory in the SE?

One thing I’ll note. Whereas the -AAM biased GEFS slowed down its timing back toward a +AAM though it still is predicting it, the more accurate EPS has been steady and has it going to +AAM ~2/21. That normally in itself is good news for SE:

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ForsythSnow said:
GEFS says nope. Not a single member is close
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Good, it has been giving us fake snow all winter. So let it keep being wrong:rolleyes: Seriously, I don't trust the trailing wave on front looks. But lately there has been a lot of wavy fronts so maybe for once ...
 
The good Doc is on deck. What does its 0Z ensemble have for the MJO? And what does the GEFS have? The gist of them to me is that it may finally get over to the left side late month to perhaps stay for a while. Based on biases, the GEFS is likely too strong and the EPS is likely too weak:

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Sandbar said:
HA....I was there the last time. That is crazy. Now when I deployed to Afghanistan different story when we did ops in the high peak mountain regions. It would dump on you at the drop of a dime.
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Off topic +1 101st 2013 first deployment was to the Mountains of Afghanistan I dint care for it to much bc of constant fire from snipers they knew the land we were just sitting ducks.
 
Umm, near normal and none of that ridiculous heavy rain is winning!! And the trend is still little by little colder. No spring in site per this. I'll never turn down a map like this. You wonder where is the SER? Nowhere to be seen! It has been defeated if this is right! +AAM ftw! :D o_O :)
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Haven’t been able to ride the euro to victory in a good while. Unless you mean the euro getting it right at 12Z the day of an event?
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I’d ride the euro at day 8-10 vd the GFS . Need to look no further than the last 60 days . The euro has waffled a lot this year but the GfS is complete S***


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GaWx said:
Umm, near normal and none of that ridiculous heavy rain is winning!! And the trend is still little by little colder. No spring in site per this. I'll never turn down a map like this. You wonder where is the SER? Nowhere to be seen! It has been defeated if this is right! +AAM ftw! :D o_O :)
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If we all lived 10 days ahead, winter would actually be a real thing.
 
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