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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

I’ve seen a lot worse. No complaints with this look but I’m struggling to see the end game here. The progression depicted by the GFS verbatim is unachievable. We’re either possibly working towards a coastal/late bloomer or some overrunning west of the mountains. Not both..and maybe not either ??‍♂️..GFS in the medium to LR is bad (worse than most) about trying to do way too much at one time. I think that’s why it tends to spit out these storms that translate from one side of the mountains to the other and that just isn’t reality C9123B02-14B2-431D-B444-639A66870E3A.png
 
Both gfs and the cmc are trying to get some winter weather going mid next week in the Midsouth area.
 
Split flow with a big ridge going up into AK. Wave of interest dives down out of Anchorage. All of this occurring while a big sprawling mid 1040 high pressure dominates the lower 48. I mean, it’s not nothing.
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This was another lowkey missed opportunity that’s trending in the right direction late, wow lol
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Holy moly, look at how much colder is the 0Z Euro!

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Look at how cold is most of the US now. Not too long ago, the bulk of the US was warm at the same time. Something is a changing.

Notice the common them of these colder models: the SER is giving way instead of being stubborn!
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Noticing models want to pop a +PNA but keep a nuetral to +EPO, meh
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It doesn't matter much imo as the E US is still much colder due to a +PNA, which has a higher correlation to SE cold than a -EPO. For one thing, a +PNA kills the SER. A -EPO sometimes is no match for a SER. A -EPO without a +PNA typically sucks.
 
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WxWatch said:
I agree with the precip output. I can tell by looking at it, we're going to see a change with storm tracks, more Gulf of Mexico activity, and coastal lows. The initial prediction of the blizzard I'm predicting, I put the main low developing south/WSW of Jamaica -- the main low may form a bit further north towards Cuba. Keep in mind, with predictions there is margin of error, just like what computer models have as well.

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Could there be a blizzard in Alabama? Oh please say yes!!
 
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