wow thanks! i struggled with wanting to turn in 6, as i heard a lot of people around me say 6 or more, but no matter how long i stared at it i couldn't turn in more than 5.5, and now that i see your map it makes me feel better, as it looks like its just east of me and going northeast that it started getting above 6. This indeed was a very rare situation where we at around 1500 feet did well compared to places like Suches that are at 3k, and I think its because they more often than not have "perfect" conditions due to elevation. In this case, we also had perfect conditions, as the cold air was already in place and sort of wedged in, and the storm was not so big and amped to overpower with a warm sector, and this small disturbance came in at the best time of day from the best angle. I even had 13 to 1 ratio, yielding 5.5 inches out of .42 precip.
I like seeing the GFS show this solution, but it's day 10 and cold chasing precipitation. ?
The last one that reached the gulf gave us 3-6 inches of rain and severe weather.
Oh look a snow map for the rest of winter
You need some blocking going on to hold cold in place for a decent time ... we’re heading towards record breaking positive nao. Don’t see signs of that happening
Ridge is too stout. Onset ice would be best (or worst?) case scenario. Even for favored CAD areas. Just my opinion. This is why we track though. Keep it coming Larry!
I don't like that the low tracks to the great Lakes, but the initial CAD is strong. Dew points get into the single digits in NC and teens down into SC and Ga. Maybe we can get that low to track more south or more west. Then keep the high locked more to the NE. Not asking for much...
Yowza... A March 1993 redux!
Not in our lifetime
Is the CFS the only model seeing the cold? Hard to put a lot of faith in it since it’s always cold. Just feel like I would be seeing more cold talk if others saw it as well.
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I really hated that 93 storm. I got ~1.5" while others to the west got dumped on. But, I think if there is going to be a year that could produce such a storm this is the year. As we get into March the predominant pattern should break down. We'll be able to get colder (quicker) shots of air into the SE (at least until mid March). I feel that type of pattern would favor miller A storms over a miller B storms. 1993 was a miller A and it went right over RDU. Wild weather, but most of the snow stayed to the west of the track.
man no one will be prepared in the Atlanta area for something like that. It's crazy to think how most new houses don't even have fireplaces. no electricity=no heat for a lot of folks.
Even the gfs is usually only showing something like this every once in a while and rarely more then one run. I believe we’ve seen less and less fantasy storms over the years because the models have gotten better. The 2 snows I’ve received of more than a half inch this winter have been handled pretty well by the gfs and all models honestly. The NAM has seemed much improved this season also. The snow from last week, every model had me receiving between 0.8 and 1.8 inches of snow and I ended up with 1.5.
The new Bleaklies are bleak. Why else do they have that nickname? So, who cares? And they're actually no bleaker than the last run.
Next....
Edit: Actually, 2/24-3./2 is near normal, which is colder than the prior run's AN. So, that's good to see. And don't forget that this is an extension of the 0Z run.
