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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

it’s a good thing the gfs changed that H5 pattern... because at one point it looked prime for more bad severe weather, it’s now trending towards a winter storm look with a Canada vortex and a SW in Mexico, hopefully it doesn’t go back 706F07C5-4E01-4064-89EC-E4D7C5143E2A.gif
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS is about to also come in colder it appears. I love the mostly silence because nobody believes this is for real. But is this going to be different?
In all my years of following models, this (12Z GFS) ranks near the top for 12 hour cold changes in the SE.
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Larry,
The important thing is that the models shows this less than 10 days out; if we have some run to run consistency for another 48 to 72, even with some up and down fluctuations, it could be very interesting.
As always, Thanks for all of your input!
Best!
Phil
 
It’s just too far out. Too much time for it to trend to cold rain. I wanna see runs of no ice or snow. I wanna see major cold. With that said, pattern looks interesting to squeeze something out of this winter.
 
I’ll be honest the trends have definitely been looking up as of recent ... Gfs completely flipped on the massive trough out west .. now has a major ridge in the same spot .. will help our chances down the line
 
Jessy89 said:
Crazy gfs already lost the ice for the 16th lol
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Actually a better look imo..for a snow setup with coastal low. And under 240hrs. Just need moisture thrown back west. Less of an ice setup. I see 1 or 2 potentials there for snow vs rain.
 
I think that the most important hint from the last 3 GFS runs is the loss of the strong SER starting midmonth. Prior runs weren't doing that. Is this for real? Well, from what I've learned, if we can get rid of the now returning -AAM, it would have a decent chance at least because that partially correlates to SER.
Also, this run is again very close to wintry in parts of the SE near midmonth+.
 
Winston-Salem West into the foothills below freezing with strong developing storm at the coast. Should be some interesting ensembles under 240hrs. Largely a snow setup for western NC and central not far off.
 
The major trend to colder on the models continues with the 18Z GEFS

00Z GEFS (by the way, even this 0Z GEFS and the run before it were already trending much colder to the prior runs meaning the big colder trend has been ongoing for 5 straight runs!)
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Now the much colder 18Z GEFS:
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GaWx said:
Another comparison of 0Z to the brand new much colder 18Z GEFS:

0Z:
View attachment 33283

18Z: much colder!
View attachment 33284
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you know this is a little whamby i guess but it appears the most accurate long range forecast is one that goes completely opposite of JB & GEFS lol. (sarc but a little truth in there?? haha) Im actually really little intrigued by this period now.
 
EastAtlwx said:
you know this is a little whamby i guess but it appears the most accurate long range forecast is one that goes completely opposite of JB & GEFS lol. (sarc but a little truth in there?? haha) Im actually really little intrigued by this period now.
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JB is always wrong no matter which way he goes. I am skeptical of some great pattern showing up. But maybe serviceable based on teles alone. NAO stays positve like always, but the AO has a sharp fall to maybe near neutral. PNA looks to go positive in that timeframe and the MJO appears to be phases 6 and 7 which aren't horrible for cold in February and March.
 
Jessy89 said:
Is the Euro also showing this cold?

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The 12Z Euro op was much colder in the 6-10 than its 0Z run. But the 12Z EPS was not cold. I'm hoping that the much colder 12Z Euro op is a signal that the EPS will also turn colder soon. Maybe this is one of those times when the EPS is slow to the party? Or is the GEFS rushing things too much even if a colder change is right? I don't know, but I'm loving seeing this today.
 
unbelievable rain totals here today. 3.97" since midnight and still raining. We will easily eclipse 4" before midnight. Crazy totals for a tropical system--this is freaking February.
 
In almost any other winter, this look would at least raise my interest--but not so much this time, at least not yet.

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