Snowflowxxl
Member
Guess we might see some flurries Friday morning. I would have never known had I not just checked the 3K NAM for severe tomorrow lol. Sadly this might be our best chance at seeing flakes here all winter.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Kinda rate dependent, if your get heavier rates you could drag cooler air to cool down the BL, I’d say areas around the upstate could see some wet snow mixed in the rain for now, altho this ain’t isothermal soundings, this is more BL issues which is honestly what I would rather have in my opinion vs having a sounding that’s isothermal and could easily go wrong
NAM 12km 
Sounding near Salisbury NC
Sounding from north GA 
Sounding near Salisbury NC
Sounding from north GA 
Snownut
Member
Almost the same exact setup as last weeks surprise
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Gonna have to disagree here. I want it to snow but this looks much dryer and rate of precip should be less. Last week had heavy rates and bright banding. This does not look the same to me.
I’m favoring the CMC look which did well on lasts week snow. Some snow for the mountains and no snow East of the mtns. For this weekend. I hope I’m wrong twice but this looks nothing like last weekend with all the heavy widespread moisture to work with.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
You do understand that "bright banding" is not necessarily heavy precip. It comes from melting hydrometers in the cloud layer which cause clumping of snowflakes. This can be seen with light to moderate precip rates.
Yes. I’m just thinking there is no comparison with last weekend from what I’ve seen. Last week took advantage of the heavier widespread rates. Not gonna have that this time around outside of the mountain counties. Foothills won’t be included in this setup IMO.
BufordWX
Member
Icon getting interesting for North Ga on Saturday.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
This time the BL is colder. You won't need rates to cool it down. If we get any precip at all, it will be snow for the foothills. The only thing that I am concerned about is the lack of QPF.
North Georgia looks more favored for light snow with less downslope. But just to the north east, I wouldn’t be surprised to see everything dry up from Charlotte to just east of Greensboro. I don’t have ICON soundings I just looked at GFS and this system is not very wet sounding compared to last week. Temps are doable with timing but looks like a question of (quality(rates) and quantity) of moisture as CAD said above.
It’s rather amazing that some of us may see 8”+ of rain and then be too dry at the surface this weekend to make it snow much.
Snownut
Member
The Icon is really ramping things up even for upstate.
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Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
The angle and development of moisture also disfavors the NC piedmont areas esp where Frosty is in Mount Airy. I guess I’ll root for north Georgia and southwestern NC as this area is slightly better positioned in this setup IMO.
Snownut
Member
9 times out of 10 if N GA gets it, North of 85 in the upstate gets it as well
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Jessy89
Member
Gfs is dryer this this run. Nothing gets into upstate
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Some impressive downpours today and tonight. At one point, CHA logged 0.26" of rain in only 4 minutes, a rainfall rate of nearly 4" per hour. Flooduary is here.
tennessee storm
Member
And some most people want another El Niño next winter lol
Post on Larry, at least it's a pretty blue instead of RED like we've seen since spring started in December............................... And most want admit it but deep down on the inside of our winter weenie it gives us a glimmer of hope
until reality sets in ?
Brent
Member
So glad I chased because this is all too similar to the last few years for Dallas lol first it was NW now it's SE
A broken clock is right twice a day......so my chips are in.
Clem282340
Member
What does the oz grefs looking like from this weekend snow
FYI, there’s a thread for this weekends possible snow event:
olhausen
Member
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Isn't 18z 3pm? That would the worst time of day for NEGA/Upstate. I would feel better if it were a nighttime/ early morning time.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Be careful here; remember that the mtns of NEGA are higher than the upstate which leaves us prone to down slope drying, especially in light QPF or rate scenarios. Plus the cold air takes longer to filter down to us.
tennessee storm
Member
You mean snow is becoming rare these days... i fixed it for you
6Z GEFS will also come in colder than prior runs midmonth it appears from earlier maps based on much less SER. Buyer beware!
Edit: Actually, the last 3 runs have been coming in colder than each respective prior run.
Edit: Actually, the last 3 runs have been coming in colder than each respective prior run.
Storm5
Member
If you love rain the next 7 days is for you !!!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Over 3 inches of rain here already. Adding up quickly.
6Z GEFS will also come in colder than prior runs midmonth it appears from earlier maps based on much less SER. Buyer beware!
Edit: Actually, the last 3 runs have been coming in colder than each respective prior run.
[/
Is this the colder you are talking about? I am struggling to find much cold anywhere.
snowlover91
Member
On my way in to work this AM I saw two wrecks which had recently happened due to hydroplaning on the wet roads. One person was out of his car and several people were performing CPR on him while waiting for an ambulance and police cars to arrive. Folks make sure you take it easy on the wet roads, hydroplaning is a big issue when traveling on interstate.
tennessee storm
Member
Gefs and geps are both slightly below normal
