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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

It looks like the trend toward colder near or just after midmonth may continue on the 12Z GFS based on early maps. Let’s see.

Edit: Midwest is much colder than earlier runs as of day 6 or so with a much better 500 mb setup!
 
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Humongous change at 500 mb on the 12Z GFS!!! WTF?

Here was the 0Z:

C396FC74-DA44-4D7E-BDD4-5981836689E4.png

Now the 12Z GFS:
D6B92E1F-DBB5-45C4-9171-D72DD1C8DE5F.png
 
Look at the massive 2 meter changes. This is incredible and very rarely seen at this magnitude this early!! Also, snow in SC/NC 2/14?!

18Z yesterday

E62CB899-7165-4C5E-AC87-2A425364865E.png

12Z today
B3135B56-E28D-4AC5-9EA0-6CF293612D46.png
 
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GaWx said:
2 meter anomalies 2/14 OMG!!

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I know that you have said one here that you believe the pattern will change and allow at least a window for winter storms after the 20th. Are you seeing anything in the indicies that would indicate this is the beginning of that. I’m not seeing it when I look at them, but I just want to make sure I’m not missing something
 
The 12Z GEFS is about to also come in colder it appears. I love the mostly silence because nobody believes this is for real. But is this going to be different?
In all my years of following models, this (12Z GFS) ranks near the top for 12 hour cold changes in the SE.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS is about to also come in colder it appears. I love the mostly silence because nobody believes this is for real. But is this going to be different?
In all my years of following models, this (12Z GFS) ranks near the top for 12 hour cold changes in the SE.
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I hope it is finally real, Larry...lol
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS is about to also come in colder it appears. I love the mostly silence because nobody believes this is for real. But is this going to be different?
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That AO crash may be the cause for these changes? Would be nice to salvage winter before March comes around.
 
Those early spring buds and seedlings are in for a rude awakening if these 12z runs actually come to fruition.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I’ve seen worse
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I don’t blame anyone at all for being skeptical as the models, especially the GEFS have had an awful cold bias, but that doesn’t stop from hoping that today’s massive changes that start mighty early in the GFS/GEFS runs are at least a hint that there will be cold changes/weaker SER/evolution to return of +PNA. Plus, as @NCSNOW alluded to, I’ve talked in recent weeks about analogs along with what hopefully will be a better MJO and also a change back to +AAM that would support a 2-3 week long period of mainly BN in the SE at some interval within late Feb through mid March.

Very much fwiw, here’s the nice and so much better late GEFS 500 mb map showing the reemergence of a legit +PNA, which hasn’t been seen on a GEFS to this extent in quite awhile:

2E6365F2-4EB2-4E6E-9EB1-8C88522ED533.png
 
Last half of Fab Feb 2015 repeat incoming. I hope. Chips are in. Maybe the CFS can be right for once?
 
superjames1992 said:
Last half of Fab Feb 2015 repeat incoming. I hope. Chips are in. Maybe the CFS can be right for once?
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Wow, I just noticed that the 6Z CFS is one of the coldest runs yet as it is much colder than any recent run for many weeks on end! I'll try to post some from this later.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's been forecasting cold all winter long.
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I agree withj your sentiment. Hence, my reason for saying I can't believe I'm posting so much of it today. Much of the winter, it has indeed been strongly cold biased. However, two things to note:
-This is by a mile much colder than any run in weeks with al of the weeks cold in the SE week 2+
- The trend of models so far today has been much colder. So, maybe, just maybe, the CFS will finally find its nut to some extent anyway for the first time since it did well with the November cold.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's been forecasting cold all winter long.
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I fully agree. It has been terribly cold biased. However, this is the coldest run by far in many weeks and it is coming on day with colder model trends. Maybe for a change it is onto something?

Also, although not as cold as the GFS, the 12Z Euro is colder than the 0Z Euro in the SE.
 
euro looking cooler too, maybe this will turn around for the second half of feb
 
I will say looking at the euro map....there is atleast 1 thing different....there is a high pressure delivering cold temps!!
 
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