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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

GFS with a couple runs where it digs into Texas then decides to morph into a cutter. The Euro must be the right solution.


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FallsLake said:
We need a couple more days of models runs to get this inside day 7/6. We're still far enough out that we'll see some big swings back and forth (from bad to good to bad to...). What we want to see right now is a pattern that can support a storm. The 12z runs today may still have one of the operational models show a storm but have another back off (..like the euro). But if the model that backs off still shows a supportive pattern it's still game on (at this time range).
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100% correct. It's always important to have model agreement from multiple models and then consistency in that agreement. Without that these runs are just eye candy. The euro op run would have gotten a chuckle from me if it didnt have some serious and very significant ensemble support. The euro mean is impressive to say the least. Just one more time in my lifetime I want one of the coastal crushers to be correct again.
 
Well I certainly didn't expect to wake up to...that on the Euro from last night. One of the many issues the GFS has is holding back energy so, maybe just maybe we can clear things out and get something we've done before, a storm to track for a while.
 
deltadog03 said:
A recipe for snow in the Deep South
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I'd love if someone could find a source for 500mb historic data back to 73'. The Penn State E-Wall only goes back to 79, darn it.

I think.. possibly.. I may know a source, actually. I will post back if I find it.
 
deltadog03 said:
A recipe for snow in the Deep South
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With a tilt a little sooner, there would probably be more snow across more areas further north is what I see. The SER is keeping it from that to some degree. There's a good amount of cold air in place dropped well ahead of time, so that doesn't seem to be of any issue. If we keep seeing this, someone is going to get snow.
 
Storm5 said:
The reason the euro had a big snow for those areas is because the energy started closing off over the mid south and went neutral at just the right time. I think everyone is in play at this lead . Anytime you have a front laying across the SE with energy moving through there is a chance. It’s all we have at the moment and could be our last chance this winter so we have to be excited
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Wouldn’t say this is our last chance .. models look fairly good in the long range for more cold patterns
 
tennessee storm said:
It’s getting late in the season... it going get much harder to score at a winter storm ... agree with Charles also. Could be it
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Precip has been a constant. The variable being thrown into the equation is the big High pressure forecasted to pay us a visit. We haven’t seen anything that strong all winter so it makes you wonder what kind of potential is really there. It really is the type of scenario that could produce something memorable.
 
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