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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

NCSNOW said:
Heres where the Rubber Match starts next Thursday: Actually you can drop back to Wednesday and catch the ukmet on pivotal to capture the Genesis. The Euro doesnt hold back like the GFS, who digs down the California Coast. Canadian in between the Euro & GFS:
So this is the time period to watch 5 days from now , to see how the players evolve onto the playing field at that time, which in turn will dictate what unfolds the following Fri-Sat:

Euro:
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Canadian:
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World Famous GFS:
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Exactly. Euro isn’t so believable at the moment just stinging out the energy like it does, but we’ll see if it’s onto something at 12z... Euro all alone at the moment but it is the better model, so 12z is a big run even this far out!
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Jon said:
Exactly. Euro isn’t so believable at the moment just stinging out the energy like it does, but we’ll see if it’s onto something at 12z... Euro all alone at the moment but it is the better model, so 12z is a big run even this far out!
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Wow, from a central to eastern Carolinas perspective it is hard to draw up a much better scenario than what last nights Euro spit out. Prolonged overrunning along an arctic boundary followed by a low bombing out off the coast. As Jon pointed out, probably not realistic but maybe we have a chance at either the overrunning or the low off the coast, so maybe 2 shots. Hopefully the GFS is off as usual
 
I see NWS calling for wind gust 40-45 mph later today, I know the sustained winds and those gust are probably just below advisory criteria but considering the saturated grounds, weakened trees from last week kind of surprised they didn't issue one.
 
Stormdoc said:
Wow, from a central to eastern Carolinas perspective it is hard to draw up a much better scenario than what last nights Euro spit out. Prolonged overrunning along an arctic boundary followed by a low bombing out off the coast. As Jon pointed out, probably not realistic but maybe we have a chance at either the overrunning or the low off the coast, so maybe 2 shots. Hopefully the GFS is off as usual
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We need a couple more days of models runs to get this inside day 7/6. We're still far enough out that we'll see some big swings back and forth (from bad to good to bad to...). What we want to see right now is a pattern that can support a storm. The 12z runs today may still have one of the operational models show a storm but have another back off (..like the euro). But if the model that backs off still shows a supportive pattern it's still game on (at this time range).
 
Storm5 said:
Good news is this starts next Thursday for western areas so it’s not like we are chasing a day ten threat . It’s under day ten which is a miracle given this winter
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@Storm5 do you think west and central Alabama will have a chance at something like what the models are showing for the Georgia and Carolina folks?
 
Storm5 said:
Good news is this starts next Thursday for western areas so it’s not like we are chasing a day ten threat . It’s under day ten which is a miracle given this winter
d4223b3ad5473a0649c64be629f71a7f.plist



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Any even more important note is there are very few storms downstream from this one. Just the one cutter next week.

So there are fewer variables than normal for a 7-9 day storm.

I wont be surprised to see a long tracked storm with higher confidence as models lock in. Question remains. What storm do we get.
 
Storm5 said:
...Good news is this starts next Thursday for western areas so it’s not like we are chasing a day ten threat . It’s under day ten which is a miracle given this winter...
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I'm a Birmingham native (parents still reside in B'ham) - I am rooting for all I-20 members - of course, I would prefer a "board-wide" event but those in MS, AL, GA, midlands SC are way overdue
 
Storm5 said:
Good news is this starts next Thursday for western areas so it’s not like we are chasing a day ten threat . It’s under day ten which is a miracle given this winter
d4223b3ad5473a0649c64be629f71a7f.plist



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Click to expand...

It's a bit silly bit to bother with specific soundings at this range but there would definitely be more snow than indicated there over al, ga,sc per the soundings. Euro doesnt do a good job in marginal temp situations. For example, it busted pretty bad with the weekend snow and having surface temps way too warm.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
@Storm5 do you think west and central Alabama will have a chance at something like what the models are showing for the Georgia and Carolina folks?
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The reason the euro had a big snow for those areas is because the energy started closing off over the mid south and went neutral at just the right time. I think everyone is in play at this lead . Anytime you have a front laying across the SE with energy moving through there is a chance. It’s all we have at the moment and could be our last chance this winter so we have to be excited
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