Avg high is 33 here for Feb! This pattern is winning! I’m sure the 
will slosh soon!?
will slosh soon!?
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Pattern Fab Feb
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
dsaur
Member
Is that within the avg positive storm period? I kind of had the 23 thru the 26th as a good period.
That’s the early portion of the cooling back down period to closer to normal per models as the false spring ends. And it is around a relatively concentrated period for winter storms per longterm climo.
I agree with this. My reasoning is it duplicates /mirrors the Holliday into early Jan span. Not very scientific, but winter patterns a lot of tines, repeat themselves inside of the current season. Which puts us at March 1st fmroughly for a switch back.
To me we have to have the tpv work in our favor to even have a shot. Could unload, trough out west, even though thats not been case all winter.
Another fly in the ointment/hurdle is just getting some energy producing qpf. It would be fun to get a shot at sonething big like a feb 28,2004 ULL or 1993 superstorm.
Official Guidance, tonight. lol
FRIDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs around 50.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Cold with lows around 30.
SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
SUNDAY
Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY
Mostly sunny. Not as cool with highs in the mid 50s.
Not even close to freezing during precip.
Been a heck of a stretch. Greensboro has been below normal 24 out of the past 28 days. Runing over 12 degrees BN for February and its already a 1/3 of the way over. Just been A+ here really since Black Friday. Minus the Holliday warm spell.
We will end up 200% +seasonal snowfall. Will have seen frozen precip on like 7 -8 diff occasions, all as snow, except 1 event. Bottomed out at 1 degree, snow cover on ground for over 2+ weeks, rivers, ponds ,lakes still frozen as i type.
I have a new found respect for strat warming = polar vortex disruption. Last winter it delivered a great month for us and this winter it did it again. Last year mby kind got the scraps off the deep south snow, this year we won lotto, while others got table scrapped unfortunately.
But sign me up in the future for pv disruptions. I also , will always prefer weak la nina, neutral enso over any enso state. Dont mind weak el nino, as long as its east based. And like most everyone else, I always prefer a + pna as main TC in our favor.
Next year there is a heavy chorus we will get mod-strong el nino. I have been burnt so much by the past few el ninos we have had, that you want hear me beating drumsticks, next November, if in fact, thats what materializes. Its really got to be east based, or our goose will get cooked because canada will be the catch basin for a firehose of pac origin air. However the plus to a mod-strong el nino, will be drought releif and a lid on hurricane season.
I just dont see any very exciting weather in the triad, once we start rolling through mid March and beyond most of 2026. We dont capture severe t storms in the spring here like folks off to our west and east do. I see drought being big wx story into and through summer, until we can get the el nino influence kicking. Should be a lot of shear in Atlantic basin this season as well.
If we do some how start getting wetter, by mid spring/summer thanks to el nino coming on, then one not so far fetched idea, streak we may be able to set at GSO, is making it 11-12 months straight without hitting 90 degrees, except for 1 day. We had 1 day in mid august 2025,pti hit 90 on the dot. Thats been it. But it Would be hard to roll through June without kissing 90 with bone dry ground.
Anyway, im always wrong more than right on wx forecasting we will probbaly end up with multiple svre wx threats and landfalling canes, now that i inserted foot in mouth. Hopefully not.
We will end up 200% +seasonal snowfall. Will have seen frozen precip on like 7 -8 diff occasions, all as snow, except 1 event. Bottomed out at 1 degree, snow cover on ground for over 2+ weeks, rivers, ponds ,lakes still frozen as i type.
I have a new found respect for strat warming = polar vortex disruption. Last winter it delivered a great month for us and this winter it did it again. Last year mby kind got the scraps off the deep south snow, this year we won lotto, while others got table scrapped unfortunately.
But sign me up in the future for pv disruptions. I also , will always prefer weak la nina, neutral enso over any enso state. Dont mind weak el nino, as long as its east based. And like most everyone else, I always prefer a + pna as main TC in our favor.
Next year there is a heavy chorus we will get mod-strong el nino. I have been burnt so much by the past few el ninos we have had, that you want hear me beating drumsticks, next November, if in fact, thats what materializes. Its really got to be east based, or our goose will get cooked because canada will be the catch basin for a firehose of pac origin air. However the plus to a mod-strong el nino, will be drought releif and a lid on hurricane season.
I just dont see any very exciting weather in the triad, once we start rolling through mid March and beyond most of 2026. We dont capture severe t storms in the spring here like folks off to our west and east do. I see drought being big wx story into and through summer, until we can get the el nino influence kicking. Should be a lot of shear in Atlantic basin this season as well.
If we do some how start getting wetter, by mid spring/summer thanks to el nino coming on, then one not so far fetched idea, streak we may be able to set at GSO, is making it 11-12 months straight without hitting 90 degrees, except for 1 day. We had 1 day in mid august 2025,pti hit 90 on the dot. Thats been it. But it Would be hard to roll through June without kissing 90 with bone dry ground.
Anyway, im always wrong more than right on wx forecasting we will probbaly end up with multiple svre wx threats and landfalling canes, now that i inserted foot in mouth. Hopefully not.