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Pattern Fab Feb

GaWx said:
With the following strong -PNA forecast (goes out through Feb 23rd) starting this weekend and although Feb 12-15 looks cold up your way, it’s going to be hard to not have a solid mild period in the SE afterward prior to the hoped cooldown during the last 5-6 days of Feb/early March:
View attachment 193964

Also, AO and NAO are forecasted to rise sharply:
View attachment 193965

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Is that within the avg positive storm period? I kind of had the 23 thru the 26th as a good period.
 
dsaur said:
Is that within the avg positive storm period? I kind of had the 23 thru the 26th as a good period.
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That’s the early portion of the cooling back down period to closer to normal per models as the false spring ends. And it is around a relatively concentrated period for winter storms per longterm climo.
 
SD said:
Cold will come back but its probably a 21-25 day trip from here, not sure how beneficial mid March is for most of us. The way the waves will pass from trough to trough over the next 2 weeks will keep the snow chances from being a complete 0 but it's truly a thread the needle pattern
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I agree with this. My reasoning is it duplicates /mirrors the Holliday into early Jan span. Not very scientific, but winter patterns a lot of times, repeat themselves inside of the current season. Which puts us at March 1st roughly for a switch back.
To me we have to have the tpv work in our favor to even have a shot. Could unload, trough out west, even though thats not been case all winter.
Another fly in the ointment/hurdle is just getting some energy producing qpf. It would be fun to get a shot at something big like a feb 28,2004 ULL or 1993 superstorm.
 
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NCSNOW said:
Whats the old post that always shows up when we are tracking:

Official Guidance says: We'll heres what it says this a.m.


Friday
A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Saturday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday
Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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Official Guidance, tonight. lol
FRIDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs around 50.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Cold with lows around 30.

SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

SUNDAY
Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 90 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY
Mostly sunny. Not as cool with highs in the mid 50s.

Not even close to freezing during precip.
 
Been a heck of a stretch. Greensboro has been below normal 24 out of the past 28 days. Runing over 12 degrees BN for February and its already a 1/3 of the way over. Just been A+ here really since Black Friday. Minus the Holliday warm spell.
We will end up 200% +seasonal snowfall. Will have seen frozen precip on like 7 -8 diff occasions, all as snow, except 1 event. Bottomed out at 1 degree, snow cover on ground for over 2+ weeks, rivers, ponds ,lakes still frozen as i type.
I have a new found respect for strat warming = polar vortex disruption. Last winter it delivered a great month for us and this winter it did it again. Last year mby kind got the scraps off the deep south snow, this year we won lotto, while others got table scrapped unfortunately.
But sign me up in the future for pv disruptions. I also , will always prefer weak la nina, neutral enso over any enso state. Dont mind weak el nino, as long as its east based. And like most everyone else, I always prefer a + pna as main TC in our favor.
Next year there is a heavy chorus we will get mod-strong el nino. I have been burnt so much by the past few el ninos we have had, that you want hear me beating drumsticks, next November, if in fact, thats what materializes. Its really got to be east based, or our goose will get cooked because canada will be the catch basin for a firehose of pac origin air. However the plus to a mod-strong el nino, will be drought releif and a lid on hurricane season.
I just dont see any very exciting weather in the triad, once we start rolling through mid March and beyond most of 2026. We dont capture severe t storms in the spring here like folks off to our west and east do. I see drought being big wx story into and through summer, until we can get the el nino influence kicking. Should be a lot of shear in Atlantic basin this season as well.
If we do some how start getting wetter, by mid spring/summer thanks to el nino coming on, then one not so far fetched idea, streak we may be able to set at GSO, is making it 11-12 months straight without hitting 90 degrees, except for 1 day. We had 1 day in mid august 2025,pti hit 90 on the dot. Thats been it. But it Would be hard to roll through June without kissing 90 with bone dry ground.
Anyway, im always wrong more than right on wx forecasting we will probbaly end up with multiple svre wx threats and landfalling canes, now that i inserted foot in mouth. Hopefully not.
 
Rain Cold said:
I might agree with you if all of the cold was going to evacuate Canada.
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Agreed! When I look at all the heat maps for the upcoming couple of weeks, the only thing that helps my sanity is , all the extremely cold Canada!! As long as it’s there, we have a chance!! So as RC says, if Canada was warm, winter might be over!
 
Yeah, he’s definitely still around and he’s done very well on accuracy this winter. Best I can remember? I can’t remember each individual storm, If over a day had past. Lol. I’ve got a good memory, it’s just short.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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BIG FROSTY said:
Yeah, he’s definitely still around and he’s done very well on accuracy this winter. Best I can remember? I can’t remember each individual storm, If over a day had past. Lol. I’ve got a good memory, it’s just short.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Very accurate for our area for sure.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
View attachment 194002
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Interesting stuff! I follow near-shore SSTs all of the time being near the coast. Ft Pulaski’s coldest hourly reading during this cold period was 47F, which was set Sun and Mon, and was ~9F colder than avg for early Feb. It’s now up only to 48. These cold coastal SSTs of course help to keep temps at the beaches chilly when there are onshore winds. The coldest I can recall it ever getting is ~39F back in the frigid winter of 1976-7 during the extreme cold of mid Jan that lead to Miami snow.

On avg Feb has had the coldest SSTs (56.5F) with Jan and Mar only slightly less cold:
IMG_8141.png

www.seatemperature.org

Savannah Beach Water Temperature (GA) | United States | Sea Temperatures

Today's Savannah Beach (GA), United States water temperature. Marine / ocean climate data updated daily, surface sea temperatures and recorded in degrees centigrade and farenheit.
www.seatemperature.org www.seatemperature.org

But there will very likely be a significant rise over the next 2 weeks back to NN as overall air temperatures warm considerably in the area. I expect a recovery at least into the mid 50s late month prior to any potential coolback.
 
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SD said:
Thank you! I do love the fact that both have reduced qpf in the snow hole. We can't get into a new pattern soon enough..
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It's a weird storm track to me, almost due east, southern slider kinda with Miller A like precip along the coast. I see no reason it's not much further north with a line of showers/storms by verification time lol
 
RBR71 said:
It's a weird storm track to me, almost due east, southern slider kinda with Miller A like precip along the coast. I see no reason it's not much further north with a line of showers/storms by verification time lol
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It finally loaded for us cheapskate folk on tidbits. That setup isn't that bad just need that leading wedge to beef up. If you were to draw up how you'd do a late winter beast, that isn't that far off
 
RBR71 said:
It's a weird storm track to me, almost due east, southern slider kinda with Miller A like precip along the coast. I see no reason it's not much further north with a line of showers/storms by verification time lol
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i agree on the weird part. it seems to be sort of buried in a general ridge and the AIFS keeps enough above normal heights over top to stop it from going anywhere, + it is a more pos tilt weak system on that model so it doesn't really try to gain latitude. the 0z euro basically corrected to the AIFS precip footprint, but then went back to the more amped solution at 6z to bury charlottesville. meanwhile in GFS land it tries to cut off a weak ULL and send it to Florida lol?

1770731967177.png

there's still enough there on the ensembles for NW NC to stay interested in getting something. i stay wary of that 6z euro run after the 0z was so close to the AI footprint
 
RBR71 said:
It's a weird storm track to me, almost due east, southern slider kinda with Miller A like precip along the coast. I see no reason it's not much further north with a line of showers/storms by verification time lol
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0z Euro Perfect track if it was only cold enough / ugh. Canadian and Icon cut up west and flood us all, but 6z icon has trended back toward 0z euro. Canadian has Ice in nw NC. But is out to lunch with track
Then there's the GFS even further south with slider. Dumps dust particles on anyone south of hwy 64 corridor in NC.


1770733292728.png
 
Euro still on board for some East Texas storms as the low gets going. Over our way I would be impressed to get any elevated rumbles of thunder north of I-20ish right now
1770733744271.png
 
1770734332667.png
The 6z Euro in my opinion was a blip. You can see it strengthens a tiny surface low in Maine and because of that we get cooler air further south. Its a tiny feature and does not look realistic.
 
Rain Cold said:
I might agree with you if all of the cold was going to evacuate Canada.
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Exactly. This just isn’t like so many Februarys we’ve seen of late in which the cold was leaving Canada and heading back to Siberia. The cold is still there close by and there is one heck of a snow over the northeast and Ohio Valley
 
I think the Valentine's storm is going to come down to whether or not there is a northern stream shortwave and then whether or not there's any interaction between it and the southern stream system.

The Euro has a N/S system and has been flirting with the idea of either phasing or partially phasing it in. This would lead to a farther north track and potentially snowier solution for northern areas.

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-1770703200-1771156800-1771221600-10.gif

The GFS sees no N/S wave whatsoever (or maybe just has it 24 hours earlier) and instead develops a massive ridge that sends the southern system to Cuba.

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-1770703200-1771243200-1771340400-10.gif

The Canadian sends a primary into the Lakes and reforms a secondary off the NC coast and then heads OTS. I don't favor this solution.
 
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