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Pattern Fab Feb

LongRanger said:
And just what do you have to support winter weather is not over for the upstate? Absolutely Nothing
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I remember you was bashing (yea you’re twister) folks posting about the pattern coming up for a while, saying folks were grasping on straws. and it snowed and sleeted 2 weekends in a row. major L take man. Be better. Mother Nature took you personal and said let’s do this. Now oth if your reversing psychologically reeling these things in, you are absolutely cooking and keep doing your thing 🔥
In other news, it smells like omega block the end of the month. The ultimate lick torture pattern.
 
NBAcentel said:
I remember you was bashing (yea your twister) folks posting about the pattern coming up for a while, saying folks were grasping on straws. and it snowed and sleeted 2 weekends in a row. major L take man. Be better. Mother Nature took you personal and said let’s do this. Now oth if your reversing psychologically reeling these things in, you are absolutely cooking and keep doing your thing 🔥
In other news, it smells like omega block the end of the month. The ultimate lick torture pattern.
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What in the world are you talking about? I think some of y'all have lost it. I have no idea what you're talking about and Im about to think some of y'all don't either?
 
The polar vortex (PV) is predicted to experience a significant split in mid-February 2026, causing a major pattern change in the Northern Hemisphere. This disruption, following a strengthening in early 2026, is expected to bring cold Arctic air to North America. The event is likely to cause rapid, cold weather changes.
JANUS Research Group +3
Key Details on the Polar Vortex Situation:
  • Split Event: The stratosphere is warming, causing the polar vortex to weaken, wobble, and potentially split.
  • Impact: A split often leads to severe winter weather, including cold blasts in North America.
  • Timing: Forecasters suggest the split is expected to take place in the middle of February 2026.
  • Atmospheric Circulation: This type of disruption often moves the cold air from the Arctic further south, a process sometimes called "displacement".
    JANUS Research Group +2
 
LongRanger said:
And just what do you have to support winter weather is not over for the upstate? Absolutely Nothing
Click to expand...
The fact that it's the first of February and nobody knows what the weather will do next week let alone the entire month or first half of March? You're just talking and have nothing to back it up with other than the fact that you're just wanting winter to be over lol
 
iGRXY said:
The fact that it's the first of February and nobody knows what the weather will do next week let alone the entire month or first half of March? You're just talking and have nothing to back it up with other than the fact that you're just wanting winter to be over lol
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Hell if you ask some of these models they don't know anymore than 6-8hrs in advance with how bad they bomb stuff recently. Head outside, Lick the ol pointer finger and stick it in the wind tells ya about all we know. Put a rock outside, if its wet... looks like rain, dry its not
 
iGRXY said:
The fact that it's the first of February and nobody knows what the weather will do next week let alone the entire month or first half of March? You're just talking and have nothing to back it up with other than the fact that you're just wanting winter to be over lol
Click to expand...
We have not had much winter weather in Feb for a while now, but this year may just be the one that snaps the streak. The last winter with this much sustained cold air was 2014 and it certainly had a big Feb storm. That had been my last real snow event until this last weekend. I think Feb 2015 may have had a winter storm too.
 
It is funny how people become so sure that we're going to torch or we're going to freeze in the long range when the long range models turn warmer or colder. I suppose it's natural to believe that a warm or cold pattern is coming based on that, especially when there's broad agreement. But so many times, people go we'll beyond that and just proclaim whatever they're seeing is just going to be how it is for the next month or 6 weeks or for the rest of winter.

It's mind-boggling, especially since that method hasn't worked the ENTIRE winter or last winter either. I can't imagine that we're not going to warm up for a while. But it would be really, really hard to declare winter is just over because we see the indexes headed in an unfavorable direction around mid-month. I guess this time really could be different and we could go full on torch-severe mode. But I kind of doubt it.
 
JHS said:
We have not had much winter weather in Feb for a while now, but this year may just be the one that snaps the streak. The last winter with this much sustained cold air was 2014 and it certainly had a big Feb storm. That had been my last real snow event until this last weekend. I think Feb 2015 may have had a winter storm too.
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Yeah, perhaps it's over, but I do get the feeling that winter may have 1 more trick up her sleeve with the way it has gone later in the month.

Down to here, probably not, but maybe west of here and north of me.

It's sort of amazing though, we flipped the calendar to February and the modeled temps were immediately not as cold as thought.
 
Today’s Euro Weeklies are again pretty ugly looking with a -PNA/BN H5 in SW Canada dominating the weeks after Feb 10th. Also, the -AO and -NAO essentially go away. This -PNA would be a sharp reversal to the opposite of the prior 4 week long beautiful +PNA dominated pattern, which we’ll be able to enjoy for another week. Hoping this -PNA doesn’t last too long and that the model is wrong on it lasting for weeks.
 
NCSNOW said:
The polar vortex (PV) is predicted to experience a significant split in mid-February 2026, causing a major pattern change in the Northern Hemisphere. This disruption, following a strengthening in early 2026, is expected to bring cold Arctic air to North America. The event is likely to cause rapid, cold weather changes.
JANUS Research Group +3
Key Details on the Polar Vortex Situation:
  • Split Event: The stratosphere is warming, causing the polar vortex to weaken, wobble, and potentially split.
  • Impact: A split often leads to severe winter weather, including cold blasts in North America.
  • Timing: Forecasters suggest the split is expected to take place in the middle of February 2026.
  • Atmospheric Circulation: This type of disruption often moves the cold air from the Arctic further south, a process sometimes called "displacement".
    JANUS Research Group +2
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1770157202383.png2004 Redux - Bring it on.
 
Nasty March incoming? Well, we know our norms will be coming, but it can still snow BIGGLY in March!

From JB, he had a big write-up, but here's the last part.

After this positive WPO burst, we have a lot things on the table for a third round of cold that could send March into a tank. Don't ignore the current cold as it lasts into next week in the East. I think we'll then see the cold return the last 7-10 days of the month, but the models are showing it already and there seems to be some physical reasons for why.
 
Anyone else think flurries are possible Friday night?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Rain Cold said:
It is funny how people become so sure that we're going to torch or we're going to freeze in the long range when the long range models turn warmer or colder. I suppose it's natural to believe that a warm or cold pattern is coming based on that, especially when there's broad agreement. But so many times, people go we'll beyond that and just proclaim whatever they're seeing is just going to be how it is for the next month or 6 weeks or for the rest of winter.

It's mind-boggling, especially since that method hasn't worked the ENTIRE winter or last winter either. I can't imagine that we're not going to warm up for a while. But it would be really, really hard to declare winter is just over because we see the indexes headed in an unfavorable direction around mid-month. I guess this time really could be different and we could go full on torch-severe mode. But I kind of doubt it.
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Quite a few of our official reporting stations in SC and NC have a streak of BN months going back to AUGUST. Until we see definitive signs of that breaking I don't see why we would think winter is over.
 
ChrisAMB said:
Quite a few of our official reporting stations in SC and NC have a streak of BN months going back to AUGUST. Until we see definitive signs of that breaking I don't see why we would think winter is over.
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Completely agree.
 
tl;dr pedantic run-on sentence lightly satirizing the discussion today and monthly drought outlook map (valid 1\31)

wow reading this back and forth about the pattern and the future prospects and\or conditionality of but not limited nor exclusively so-called "winter weather" as it relates to its various dependencies (temperature, precip type, possible accumulations, etc.) including but not to be constrained by the scope of objectively extraneous factors determined not only by conditions yet to be brought into existence nor to be accurately understood by the feeble attempts at prediction as it relates to various numerical physics and AI models then transfered (digitally) to produce colors on a map of various hues of greens, pinks and blues where if surface and atmospheric conditions favor could under even the most extreme circumstances a reality which is likely to not even precipitate enough of 'the white stuff' to top the height of a can of beer. all this right after we had one of the most exciting and historic winter weather events in the recent past!

I'm almost ready to ask the question: Does weather even exist in February? Is winter even real?

I present this map to the chat which I would love to see changed this month

signal-2026-02-03-22-21-32-095.png
 
ChrisAMB said:
Quite a few of our official reporting stations in SC and NC have a streak of BN months going back to AUGUST. Until we see definitive signs of that breaking I don't see why we would think winter is over.
Click to expand...
All the prognosticators never imagined we would have 6 months of below normal Last Summer
 
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