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Pattern Fab Feb

NBAcentel said:
-NAOs suck for warmth especially in late winter and spring
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The biggest challenge for a big NC snowstorm on Val. Day is going to be the progged -PNA by the model consensus (opposite of what the last storm had) as only 10% of the 6”+ storms since 1950 that occurred at RDU and/or GSO were when the PNA was sub -0.5:

IMG_8013.png

Sub -0.5 PNA for 6”+ snowstorms RDU/GSO

-0.8 1/22-24/1954
-0.8 3/2-3/1960
-1.1 2/12-13/2014
-0.7 1/6-7/2017

In contrast, there have been 4 times as many (16) that occurred with a PNA of +0.5+.

This analysis has nothing to do with major icestorms, which I’m assuming on average have had better results than big snows when there’s a -PNA.
 
NCSNOW said:
Worked out pretty well on last 2. In the ball park, just a little heavy with icing
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Actually, you're right. GFS did pick up this past weekend's storm pretty far out. The totals might have not as been as big as it showed for everyone, but that was mostly because of the dry slot that wasn't picked up until about 24 hours out.
 
rburrel2 said:
How did no one post this? Y’all are asleep at the wheel in here. 2-3 inch mean on the day 9 threat

View attachment 193640
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I’d be extra careful with the Euro AIFS clown maps. The WxBell Euro AIFS snow maps overdo snow due to algorithm problems that I discovered when noting heavy snowstorms of individual members way out in the Gulf with 2m temperatures in the 60s-70s. I don’t know for sure that the problem is solely with WxBell because it could be tied to the Euro AIFS, itself.
 
rburrel2 said:
How did no one post this? Y’all are asleep at the wheel in here. 2-3 inch mean on the day 9 threat

View attachment 193640
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Made sure to look at burgs site to see if the mean was legit and it kinda is lol. Makes sense though this run has a stronger -NAO, starting to pop a Rockies ridge, a deep low in the Atlantic that suppresses the track, and a southern plains trailing southern stream wave. Shortened wavelengths ftw, even with a mean trough over B.C. The post 40 y/o+ Pamela Anderson pattern IMG_3996.gif
 
NBAcentel said:
Made sure to look at burgs site to see if the mean was legit and it kinda is lol. Makes sense though this run has a stronger -NAO, starting to pop a Rockies ridge, a deep low in the Atlantic that suppresses the track, and a southern plains trailing southern stream wave. Shortened wavelengths ftw, even with a mean trough over B.C. The post 40 y/o+ Pamela Anderson pattern View attachment 193642
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A nice classic borderline heavy wet snow event would be awesome. Feels like we haven’t had that in a while


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
superjames1992 said:
So I guess the GFS isn't on its own with this deal?
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The ole GFS, despite as much as I dog it, and probably still will. Has turned into a pure bred Blood hound this winter season, It;s sniffed the past 2 out from way out in left field. Doesn't mean it's gonna continue to do so accurately. But this pattern hasn't toyed with it, like most patterns tend to do med-long range, for some unknown reason.
 
bouncycorn said:
The server I generate WeatherNext on ran out of space, so I had to clear it up but I have the downloader & plotter running now. Just looking over other models, I think that the threat around Valentines day may have legs. Worth watching at the very least.
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Think this could legitimately impact central/northeast GA, or just mood flurries? tia for weathernext inputs
 
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