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Pattern Fab Feb

LongRanger said:
I'm speaking solely for us Upstate Folks, And yes if I was a Betting man I'd bet us upstate folks is done with winter weather this year as far as anything that amounts to anything. I'd be willing to bet there's more above normal temps than cold around here from here on out.
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Of course it'll be more cold weather. Possibly very cold, teens low 20s here and there. But as far as winter weather goes I'd agree the odds are against us. A lot of reasons for that. Considering how bad February has been lately is one. But that's based on feelings. But real evidence against us is the -PNA showing up. Makes it very hard to get winterstorms here. And it may be a long term -PNA. Finally GSP is above average for snowfall and has had 2 events. Areas north of GSP in Spartanburg county are well above average. Hard to ask for anymore and one to two events is usually all this area gets in a winter. So if I was a betting man I'd say its done too. Maybe some close calls but I'd put the odds of getting an inch or more of snow from here on at 30%.
 
RSG said:
Of course it'll be more cold weather. Possibly very cold, teens low 20s here and there. But as far as winter weather goes I'd agree the odds are against us. A lot of reasons for that. Considering how bad February has been lately is one. But that's based on feelings. But real evidence against us is the -PNA showing up. Makes it very hard to get winterstorms here. And it may be a long term -PNA. Finally GSP is above average for snowfall and has had 2 events. Areas north of GSP in Spartanburg county are well above average. Hard to ask for anymore and one to two events is usually all this area gets in a winter. So if I was a betting man I'd say its done too. Maybe some close calls but I'd put the odds of getting an inch or more of snow from here on at 30%.
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But yet I get jumped on by some when I speak against winter weather around here especially as time goes on with warmer weather in the future. I don't get it
 
Pattern is so reminiscent of the Christmas pattern with the troughs on each side and the big ridge in the middle. Should definitely favor big time warmth but the wedge regions will aax always have an opportunity to wedge here with the trough off of the NE coast. Eps beat down the late hours SER more than 12z so that's good but it's still warm..
 
What happened March 1984 and December 1992 around here, storm wise? He thinks big storm next week. But I think it's a NE winter storm.
ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_1459200(1).png

There the return of the negative WPO. waht happens in this is the western trough will get seeded with cold air and then try to come east as we haead into phase 3 of the MJO
ECMF_BC(75).png


which is a heck of a pattern
nina_3_feb_mid(7).png


BTW when that comes out, like in January when the cold started to push, we may to deal with severe weather in the south
 
It’s that type of pattern where you can slow down the vortex off the NE US and send a trailer right into it without going crazy with ridging, you can sneak in a wet snow event. Pattern wavelengths are shortening so a -NAO/-PNA isn’t a death kneel, especially for the northeastern part of the board and NC especially
 
Bigedd09 said:
249d0c96698267a6bab081717bd5d481.jpg

Gfs for next Friday


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Not a ton of cold tap to work with but the flow is still jammed a bit here which is a leading indicator. This timeframe is still bouncing around a bit but at least a finger of high pressure wedged between two Lows seems to be a common theme over the last several cycles. Coupled with a muted ridgeIMG_8566.png
 
jackendrickwx said:
one of the things that stood out to me the most in this morning's modeling was the AIFS jumping around on Tuesday of next week
View attachment 193581


But it is figuring out H5
View attachment 193582

That's a springtime vibe right there. Day that could go for 65-70 potentially foiled by random little shortwave of showers
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Common theme. Pattern retrogression. Been there all season.
 
Seems like the key to something mid Feb is just keeping seperation as waves enter the west coast and not phasing/merging the pacific/southern stream out there to create a mega west through. If you keep separation it speeds up wave timing with the attendant vortex to our NE waiting around
 
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NBAcentel said:
Seems like the key to something mid Feb is just keeping seperation as waves enter the west coast and not phasing/merging the pacific/southern stream out there to create a mega west through. If you keep separation it speeds up wave timing with the attendant vortex to our NE waiting around
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So if I want something to happen in NC for next weekend the pattern is decent or what what do we need to happen for it to work out again?


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