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Pattern Fab Feb

NCSNOW said:
And dont forget RDU this Saturday @ Luke

View attachment 193704
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I’m surprised how well this system holds together as it goes through the mountains. If models continue to show that then you can bet there will be some surprises. Models typically underdo moisture getting past the mountains so I’m willing to bet that this will be even better than say what the NAM has right now. Only issue is that it comes in during the middle of the day so I wouldn’t expect much for accumulations.
 
Looking ahead: the PNA, which has the highest correlation to cold in the SE and has been our great friend for 3.5 weeks. will remain a strong ally to SE cold lovers the next few days. However, it appears to be heading to enemy territory starting in ~a week as has been evident for ~5 days:

GEFS
IMG_8027.png

EPS
IMG_8028.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I was promised heat? Ya’ll must have access to stuff I don’tView attachment 193727
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Not “heat” (that’s an exaggeration) and nothing’s promised, but I do see AN temps on the 12Z GEFS for the period 2/11-17 averaged out, which is what I’d expect with a progged -PNA for that period and would be far different from what we’ve had the last 3.5 weeks: (probably NN near Val Day though)
IMG_8035.png
 
NBAcentel said:
We about to learn omega block and short springtime wavelengths View attachment 193729View attachment 193730
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There’s significant disagreement between the 12Z EPS (BN to NN) and the 12Z GEFS (NN to AN) for the period 2/13-17 although they agree on AN after that period: GEFS is 3-4F warmer than EPS in SE for 2/13-17

12Z GEFS 2/13-17:
IMG_8038.png

12Z EPS 2/13-17:
IMG_8039.png
 
GaWx said:
There’s significant disagreement between the 12Z EPS (BN to NN) and the 12Z GEFS (NN to AN) for the period 2/13-17 although they agree on AN after that period: GEFS is 3-4F warmer than EPS in SE for 2/13-17

12Z GEFS 2/13-17:
View attachment 193733

12Z EPS 2/13-17:
View attachment 193734
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I honestly think the EPS has the better idea here, it’s easier to drop a trough out west and get a west coast/east coast trough with a omega block around this time of the year especially with NATL blocking. After mid Feb though not very sure
 
NBAcentel said:
I honestly think the EPS has the better idea here, it’s easier to drop a trough out west and get a west coast/east coast trough with a omega block around this time of the year especially with NATL blocking. After mid Feb though not very sure
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What storms in the past has featured an omega block?


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Bigedd09 said:
What storms in the past has featured an omega block?


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The big dog I can recall having that configuration is Feb 2004. Had a centric ridge into Canada and Baffin Bay, with a PNW/GOAK trough, a upper level low undercutting the ridge extending up into the central/northern plains, and a trough hanging out in the NATL/off the EC. March 2018 also had events with a similar configuration. DT calls it the Pamela Anderson pattern
 
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