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Pattern Fab Feb

I said before last weekend, that good Patterns come along and get stuck in a rhythm where you get multiple weeks with a winter wx threat on the same day, Seen it happen several times. Don't ask me why.
We'll here we are . Looking at the 3rd weekend in a row with this latest threat. Suites me fine. Skimming the other Ops , they all show it, so it's legit. Gonna enjoy this one and hopefully avoid the dry slot screw job.
What a winter this is shaping up to be. This weekend will be the 6th time mby has had frozen precip fall from the sky. 5 as pure snow. The accum department could definitely use a boost.
Not out of the realm of possibilities, but we might can make a run at a 2-3 week stretch of actually having frozen on the ground.
 
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griteater said:
After next weekend, it looks like we may do the Greenland Block > Retrograde thing again. This time, we may retrograde the pattern some across the U.S. too, so maybe more of a full conus flat trough instead of the steep E U.S. trough.....we'll see. Good things can happen though if the block goes big and retrogrades.

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Euro Weeklies trying to push closer toward an SSW here around Valentine's Day

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Remember the Trapper Keeper Notebook? See E Canada

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They have been hyping a torch up here by the 2/05 timeframe! Looks like it will be short lived!
 
NBAcentel said:
MORESo who’s ready for the next one View attachment 191365View attachment 191364
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Star Wars Mas GIF by slicedbread
 
NCSNOW said:
Well we never got above freezing today. What a cold spell this is going to have been when we look back and tally up. The duration is what's so impressive
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Coldest 30 day period since 2011 here.

January will make 6 straight months below normal at Florence SC. Would be crazy if we can do it again in February and have a BN autumn and winter.
 
griteater said:
Looks like we're going for a big retrograding block again around Valentine's Day

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There is basically no cold air on the other side of the world!!! Every year we see these maps about this time of year, waiting on SSW/yadda, and the coldest air is on the other side of the world and we have to wait and hope it makes it here before March!
Rarified air, if this verified!! 🤞
 
So all they are doing is hyping a big “ warm up “ next week up here!!! I guess 2 days in the 30s is beach weather?? GFS drops the hammer on the weekend of the 7th, and stays! Love to see it ! Then it just stays cold! IMG_4502.pngIMG_4503.png
 
GaWx said:
Today’s Euro Weeklies has it outrightly predicting a reversal 2/12-15:
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Long winter turns extra long. This one will probably actually give us a good March. There's no science I can roll out here, but something changed last year. It just seems like it did. Winters are coming back to the east.
 
Rain Cold said:
Long winter turns extra long. This one will probably actually give us a good March. There's no science I can roll out here, but something changed last year. It just seems like it did. Winters are coming back to the east.
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It's actually possible that the 2023-24 El Nino changed the base state of something (what that thing IS I'm not sure) that made 2024-25 and this winter so much colder than the last few winters.
 
bncho said:
It's actually possible that the 2023-24 El Nino changed the base state of something (what that thing IS I'm not sure) that made 2024-25 and this winter so much colder than the last few winters.
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We've gone through 4-7 year cycles of cold winters pretty much as long as I've been aware of winter and that's 40 years. At least here in eastern NC and SC. Can't speak for anywhere else.
 
bncho said:
It's actually possible that the 2023-24 El Nino changed the base state of something (what that thing IS I'm not sure) that made 2024-25 and this winter so much colder than the last few winters.
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Wasn't that a neutral Enso in 23/24? Seems the last El Nino was 19/20 or so

Edit
I stand corrected. Strong El Nino. I have a short weather memory when the winter sucked. I want to forget that winter.
 
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bncho said:
It's actually possible that the 2023-24 El Nino changed the base state of something (what that thing IS I'm not sure) that made 2024-25 and this winter so much colder than the last few winters.
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Most likely culprit is the sun imo. Not sure of the how. We just wrapped up a solar maximum. Headed toward solar minimum now. Beleive sun flips its poles every 11 years and does all kinds of crazy stuff. Im no expert, but I know it has to play a big role on not just our atmosphere, but also tectonic plates, earth magma etc.
I think we rightfully so try to annalyze sea surface stuff alot, like mjo, mountain torgue, base state, etc. But there is so much that goes on underneath the indian and pacific ocean, geo magnetic wise that probably change sea temps, which in turn drive weather patterns. Just thinking out loud here.
 
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