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Tropical Ex-Invest 96L

Add another one to the list to watch. This looks like it could be more of a problem than PTC 9.
 
PTC 9 really deepening first should send this one well OTS with early deepening, which it has early deepening on this run, except...

This run also has a ridge parked on top of 96L so far, and so far its keeping it from being sent NE. It might not stay that way, but so far it's been interesting to see how far that ridge is going.

Since fine details like that can't be figured out for a while, the biggest question here is if whether this one deepens early or not. This wave will be more dangerous if it makes it closer to the US without deepening.
 
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The ridging that keeps this one from being sent away from the US very comfortably breaks down after 192 and based off the frames at 222-228, I'd say very OTS (not as very OTS as it could've been however lol) but it was still an interesting run...
 
12z GFS Legacy cuts through DR lot further south than its sibling

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The 12Z GFS is the 3rd of the last 4 that has an easy recurve well east of the CONUS. If anything, chances for this avoiding the CONUS and not even coming that close have increased recently imo. But it is still too early to make a definitive call. The main risk is, ironically, if it stays weak in the MDR.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS is the 3rd of the last 4 that has an easy recurve well east of the CONUS. If anything, chances for this avoiding the CONUS and not even coming that close have increased recently imo. But it is still too early to make a definitive call. The main risk is, ironically, if it stays weak in the MDR.
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The ICON does just that, with the weak wave headed for the GOM.


Whats crazy is the ICON is the only model except the Euro that develops the original wave this thread was created about although both are weak. I actually think the one on the GFS is the second or third wave behind it.

Here it is near FL.

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I think I heard Dr. McCoy say "Jim, it's dead" but I could be mistaken.
 
For the past couple days or so there's been periods where this has been looking pretty good to me and has had me saying no wonder the models were confused at times. It's looked the best it ever has I think this morning/early afternoon. Not well organized but has a lot of convection.

This manages to slip under Hispaniola/Cuba, and there might be problems. Think the ICON is the only model that wants to develop it tho.
 
GaWx said:
Based on the NHC finally mentioning this, I think the wave that we’ve been discussing quite a bit recently and that is currently exiting Africa is now worthy of its own thread:

“A tropical wave currently near the west coast of Africa is expected
to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow
development is possible late this week or over the weekend when the
system is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Earlier today I had said this: “My thinking right now for CONUS is pretty logical and based on model consensus of the last few days: if it is 250 or so miles north of the Caribbean or further north, there’d be an excellent chance for OTS from CONUS. But if it is just north of or in the Caribbean, trouble would likely be ahead.”

The just released 12Z GEFS illustrates this quite well. About 2/3 of the 21 or so members track near or to the right of the 12Z GFS close CONUS miss. All of these also miss and mainly further out. However, 1/3 of the members (7) are to the left (closer to or in the far N Caribbean). Every one of these either hits, barely misses, or ends the run about to hit the CONUS with a big H. The concerning thing on this run is that this 1/3 is higher than the prior 3 GEFS. It includes 5 of the 21 total members getting into the Gulf. All 5 subsequently end up turning NNE before either hitting or about to hit FL (anywhere from panhandle south to SW FL) at hour 384. The scary thing is that is a climo favored track from late Sep through Oct.
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Bump for especially the bolded. Good catch, @GeorgiaGirl! This has been a tough one to gauge. But one thing that has always been a concern for the CONUS throughout this thread was if it were to end up just north of or in the Caribbean as opposed to, say, ~250+ miles north of Hispaniola as per the bolded. Most ensembles and operationals 7-9 days ago when this thread was most active had something like 2/3-3/4 of solutions going 250+ miles N of Hispaniola. Almost all of those solutions lead to easy recurves from the US. But there was a persistent 1/4-1/3 that had just north of Hispaniola or in the N Caribbean that was keeping us cautious. And now we can see a week later that the entity has revitalized and that a quite a bit further south than mean track (well down in the Caribbean) verified. Therefore, now we have to at least watch this again.
 
GaWx said:
Bump for especially the bolded. Good catch, @GeorgiaGirl! This has been a tough one to gauge. But one thing that has always been a concern for the CONUS throughout this thread was if it were to end up just north of or in the Caribbean as opposed to, say, ~250+ miles north of Hispaniola as per the bolded. Most ensembles and operationals 7-9 days ago when this thread was most active had something like 2/3-3/4 of solutions going 250+ miles N of Hispaniola. Almost all of those solutions lead to easy recurves from the US. But there was a persistent 1/4-1/3 that had just north of Hispaniola or in the N Caribbean that was keeping us cautious. And now we can see a week later that the entity has revitalized and that a quite a bit further south than mean track (well down in the Caribbean) verified. Therefore, now we have to at least watch this again.
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I can't keep up Lol.... where the heck is 96L atm? I don't think it is officially designated as in invest right now is it?
 
metwannabe said:
I can't keep up Lol.... where the heck is 96L atm? I don't think it is officially designated as in invest right now is it?
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You’re correct that it isn’t officially designated an Invest right now. So, technically it is ex-Invest 96L. It is that flare up south of PR. If this is reinvested, I wonder if it would be given a new number.
 
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Rule of thumb, if it’s not developed it won’t until it reaches the western Caribbean. It’s in the graveyard.
 
Just noticed that the NHC is projecting this to move slowly northwest. That'd cause land interaction and should keep it weaker. Now if it manages a pathway like the one I said when I made the first post or it manages to have little land interaction on any pathway it does take and hits the gulf without really getting torn apart, all bets are off.

Sad thing is part of my reason for watching would still be rain chances and I know because of the ridging it'd likely mean that anything that makes it to the gulf would be a Texas/Louisiana problem atm. Think 10% as of right now is a good projection.
 
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