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Tropical Ex-Invest 96L

Looking through the members quickly, it looks definitely looks like more of a split between those that impact the US and those OTS and some are really close. Of course a another good chunk do not have the storms. That said, there are some absolute monsters in the EPS. If something can get going and avoid the Shredders, it will very likely be a high end major Hurricane.
 
Arcc said:
Looking through the members quickly, it looks definitely looks like more of a split between those that impact the US and those OTS and some are really close. Of course a another good chunk do not have the storms. That said, there are some absolute monsters in the EPS. If something can get going and avoid the Shredders, it will very likely be a high end major Hurricane.
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It's moved quickly from 75% ots....
Early warnings are never good news,...
 
Euro very similar to the 12Z GFS actually at least with the track through the Bahamas...not what the northern islands wanna see....
 
Will see how the hemispheric pattern verifies day 8+ when this could potentially be nearing conus/caribbean but you can't have to much confidence in any direction. Look at how the modeled day 5 pattern on the EPS looked like at day 10.

Geez...day 10 it was modeling a NW ridge, now it's modeling a NW trough.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_fh120_trend.gif
 
KyloG said:
Will see how the hemispheric pattern verifies day 8+ when this could potentially be nearing conus/caribbean but you can't have to much confidence in any direction. Look at how the modeled day 5 pattern on the EPS looked like at day 10.

Geez...day 10 it was modeling a NW ridge, now it's modeling a NW trough.

View attachment 23403
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Yea, we've got some time to watch this swing....
 
KyloG said:
Will see how the hemispheric pattern verifies day 8+ when this could potentially be nearing conus/caribbean but you can't have to much confidence in any direction. Look at how the modeled day 5 pattern on the EPS looked like at day 10.

Geez...day 10 it was modeling a NW ridge, now it's modeling a NW trough.

View attachment 23403
Click to expand...


The OP runs of the Euro and GFS have been showing the west coast trough. Seeing it trend stronger isn’t that surprising.
 
GaWx said:
12Z EPS has nearly 25% of the members into the Gulf, which is a bit higher than the 0Z had and much higher than the ~15% of the 12Z GEFS.
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Larry,
Appreciate the pbp!
One thing ... and it's only 25%, but if something actually organizes and forms, chances are in the LR it curves N to NE at some point (a goodly portion have a way of doing that) ... so please ... reduce the % of GOM to 0 ...
Phil
 
Fwiw, this happy hour GFS I think doesn't even develop this specific wave at least so far. It likes the one after it better (although I do see the circulation on the map).
 
Still no development of this specific wave on this run but if it manages to make it to the Gulf it could be dangerous.

in the meantime, the wave behind this one goes nuts but it should be an easy fish.
 
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The euro blows 95L up so much it appears to leave a weakness for this to at least try and follow

edited it gets to the Bahamas and then a big trough pushes it OTS while 95L hits the NE

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_8 (1).png
 
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