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Tropical Ex-Invest 96L

GaWx

GaWx

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Based on the NHC finally mentioning this, I think the wave that we’ve been discussing quite a bit recently and that is currently exiting Africa is now worthy of its own thread:

“A tropical wave currently near the west coast of Africa is expected
to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow
development is possible late this week or over the weekend when the
system is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Earlier today I had said this: “My thinking right now for CONUS is pretty logical and based on model consensus of the last few days: if it is 250 or so miles north of the Caribbean or further north, there’d be an excellent chance for OTS from CONUS. But if it is just north of or in the Caribbean, trouble would likely be ahead.”

The just released 12Z GEFS illustrates this quite well. About 2/3 of the 21 or so members track near or to the right of the 12Z GFS close CONUS miss. All of these also miss and mainly further out. However, 1/3 of the members (7) are to the left (closer to or in the far N Caribbean). Every one of these either hits, barely misses, or ends the run about to hit the CONUS with a big H. The concerning thing on this run is that this 1/3 is higher than the prior 3 GEFS. It includes 5 of the 21 total members getting into the Gulf. All 5 subsequently end up turning NNE before either hitting or about to hit FL (anywhere from panhandle south to SW FL) at hour 384. The scary thing is that is a climo favored track from late Sep through Oct.
 
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GaWx said:
Earlier today I had said this: “My thinking right now for CONUS is pretty logical and based on model consensus of the last few days: if it is 250 or so miles north of the Caribbean or further north, there’d be an excellent chance for OTS from CONUS. But if it is just north of or in the Caribbean, trouble would likely be ahead.”
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AKA Hebert’s box theory, too soon to tell
 
GaWx said:
Although not an actual prediction, I've got the sneaking feeling that this is going to end up as a big Gulf problem. Along with the trend of a bigger sized Gulf camp that your animation shows, I'm thinking of climo.
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Well thats good

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GaWx said:
Although not an actual prediction, I've got the sneaking feeling that this is going to end up as a big Gulf problem. Along with the trend of a bigger sized Gulf camp that your animation shows, I'm thinking of model biases of too much E US troughing and climo.
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H and I names...... :)
 
OK, here we go, folks. The 216 hour 12Z EPS has the strong E US/W ATL ridging once again. And it again has numerous TCs. These stretch from the far north-central Caribbean ENE ~1000 miles out into the open Atlantic. Let's see where these go during the rest of this run. Many will obviously recurve but how many will get into or near the Gulf/FL?
 
GaWx said:
OK, here we go, folks. The 216 hour 12Z EPS has the strong E US/W ATL ridging once again. And it again has numerous TCs. These stretch from the far north-central Caribbean ENE ~1000 miles out into the open Atlantic. Let's see where these go during the rest of this run. Many will obviously recurve but how many will get into or near the Gulf/FL?
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The verdict is no surprise. Whereas ~75% recurve early and never get that close to the CONUS, the other 25% (the ones stretching from skirting the north coast of Hispaniola down to inside the Caribbean) either skirts/just misses SE FL and/or just misses far E NC or goes into the Gulf. I count about 15% of the ~51 members hitting FL on the Gulf side, not a trivial number, and more than just the 2-3 I saw on the prior run. So, watch and see if there's a continued trend to more Gulf members on future runs. If we start seeing more runs near/through the Greater Antilles or further south, that would be a troubling sign.

@pcbjr, I know this is about the last thing you want to hear. So, please don't shoot. I'm just messengering and am not yet saying this WILL likely happen. Even if it does happen, it doesn't at all mean you're likely going to be in trouble in Hogtown due to so many tracks it could take from the Gulf. Geez, look at how Dorian ended up. You were threatened early on and you ended up ok. Anyway, just telling it as I see it.
 
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Post this here in the named thread too.

You can see it the escape route on the Euro again. If the ridge can break down enough, it can go OTS. If it tucks in under the east US ridge, here it comes
 

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I finally saw the 12Z UKMET. It is much weaker than the last few runs but related to that it is quite a bit further SW (Leewards at day 7). Although it is weaker and it is a left biased model, this trend is definitely not what we should want to see if we don't want the Caribbean and CONUS to be threatened.
 
The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.
 
GaWx said:
The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.
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It’s the 18z, we toss!? That work for tropics also!?
 
GFS looks to hit the shredder. Weakens It a lot. However still strong enough to strengthen further west.
EDIT: Florida Incoming Landfall as 948MB Hurricane in Miami
gfs_mslpa_atl_44.png
 
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Of course we are getting this again.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_49.png
 
Yeah that's the second time the GFS threw out a solution that wouldn't work in a day. There's just no way that thing would cover most of Hispaniola and come out without taking an even bigger blow than what it did.

Think the bigger issue looking long haul is the further south solution appearing as if it were to miss the shredder it'd cause issues as depicted, but as soon as it hit the shredder and didn't weaken a ton it became a trash run.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah that's the second time the GFS threw out a solution that wouldn't work. There's just no way that thing would cover most of Hispaniola and come out without taking an even bigger blow than what it did.

Think the bigger issue looking long haul is the further south solution appearing as if it were to miss the shredder it'd cause issues as depicted, but as soon as it hit the shredder and didn't weaken a ton it became a trash run.
Click to expand...

Yeah those mountains aren’t modeled well but they tend to somehow miss them anyways. Its like a traffic median.


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ForsythSnow said:
Of course we are getting this again.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_49.png
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Thankfully its gonna change at least 30 to 40 more times over the next 10 days. Would be another nightmare scenario for forecasters as a turn 100 miles east or west would change landfall point dramatically.

Just time to sit back and watch the trends unfold.
 
Shaggy said:
Thankfully its gonna change at least 30 to 40 more times over the next 10 days. Would be another nightmare scenario for forecasters as a turn 100 miles east or west would change landfall point dramatically.

Just time to sit back and watch the trends unfold.
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If anything, if this misses the open door a few days earlier it will probably continue to trend westward. To be honest, after that point, I still believe this will be a narrow cone forecast. Unless major changes occur, if/when it nears the US coast it will be a much different pattern aloft than Dorian. Now the Islands could definitely throw a wrench in this though.
 
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If I remember correctly the GFS had this exact track for one of Its runs on Dorian when It was projected to hit Hispaniola. The only Difference was Dorian was a 1006mb Depression and was so sheared we didn't know where the Energy after it hit the Dominican Republic.
This is just one of those runs we toss out the window and say, Silly GFS.

However, It's not totally bonkers from its similarities in the 12z. What makes this run go into Florida is that the high is much stronger, therefore, has a stronger impact on the "Hurricane" as did the low more so in the previous run. I also will make note that the 00z and 06z runs had the High to the left which almost always promote OTS storms.
gfs_mslpa_atl_41.pnggfs_mslpa_atl_40.png
 
A week from now we should have a really good handle on if this will be a big threat or not. Watch this time period right here as we get closer.
 

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Ollie Williams said:
If I remember correctly the GFS had this exact track for one of Its runs on Dorian when It was projected to hit Hispaniola. The only Difference was Dorian was a 1006mb Depression and was so sheared we didn't know where the Energy after it hit the Dominican Republic.
This is just one of those runs we toss out the window and say, Silly GFS.

However, It's not totally bonkers from its similarities in the 12z. What makes this run go into Florida is that the high is much stronger, therefore, has a stronger impact on the "Hurricane" as did the low more so in the previous run. I also will make note that the 00z and 06z runs had the High to the left which almost always promote OTS storms.
View attachment 23331View attachment 23332
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There is actually a much larger difference at H5 as we go ahead with this storm than Dorian.
 
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