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Tropical Eta

Is it just me or is Eta starting to look pretty darn good? Central Florida watch it


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Is this an eye?


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Another east shift

At this rate it might be a Charley track lol

NHC still saying more east shifts possible

Eta's initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/8 kt. There has
once again been a significant eastward shift in the 18Z dynamical
model guidance, with the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models all showing a
faster north-northeastward motion toward the Florida west coast. As
a result, the NHC forecast has again been shifted eastward and lies
near the TVCA multi-model consensus through 36 h. After that time,
the NHC track is slower and west of the bulk of the consensus aids
as the ECMWF still shows Eta weakening and lingering near the
Florida Big Bend. While the new track has been shifted
significantly eastward after 36 h or so, some continuity with the
previous forecast is maintained with a slower northward motion
between the two model camps. While there is increasing confidence in
the faster north-northeastward motion in the short-term, there is
still considerable uncertainty by 48 hours and beyond, and further
adjustments to the track forecast could be required overnight.

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I'm guessing its no longer gonna be decoupled into a naked swirl? Thats quite the shift in the low level flow.
 
I think it either gets absorbed/opens into a trough or is just far enough E but there is a low chance we could get a SC landfall from ETA tomorrow
 
SD said:
I think it either gets absorbed/opens into a trough or is just far enough E but there is a low chance we could get a SC landfall from ETA tomorrow
Click to expand...
NHC says Eta will be in FL tomorrow but you think it will be in SC ? It's forecast to be near Jacksonville, FL tomorrow evening.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
NHC says Eta will be in FL tomorrow but you think it will be in SC ? It's forecast to be near Jacksonville, FL tomorrow evening.
Click to expand...
I think it's clearing the EC of FL near Jacksonville by early afternoon which gives it a shot at clipping the SC coast late in the evening. Realistically I'm not sure it'll be considered a TC by that point
 
SD said:
I think it's clearing the EC of FL near Jacksonville by early afternoon which gives it a shot at clipping the SC coast late in the evening. Realistically I'm not sure it'll be considered a TC by that point
Click to expand...
My sister lives in Jacksonville. Do you think there will be a lot of wind damage there ?
 
Got our first Eta related tornado warning south of St. Petersburg
 
Thoughts and prayers to Hogtown, including @pcbjr , for a pretty big blow of wind and heavy rain from TS Eta late tonight/early tomorrow. Got to watch those trees. There will likely be a lot of outages there late tonight. Amazing that their biggest blow of the season by far is coming in mid-November!

From NWS:

EASTERN ALACHUA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GAINESVILLE, GAINESVILLE AIRPORT,
AND NEWNANS LAKE
648 PM EST WED NOV 11 2020

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT


REST OF TONIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO
35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
 
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