• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Eta

SD said:
ETA looks good on satellite this morning but I'm not sold that it had a vigorous LLC yet, will wait for visible satellite. Regardless quite the mess shaping up. Once it crosses Cuba a south Florida or keys landfall looks probable as a TS maybe a low end hurricane depending how how the interaction with the upper low and the first legal landfall over Cuba impact the system. Even with that an expanding wind field looks likely as the storm starts to become more subtropical. The 1027-1030 high will be moving off shore increasing the gradient and onshore wind from NC southward so beach erosion will become an issue. After the potential landfall in SFL the system will likely be pulled west back into the gulf and moisture will start streaming northward into the SE as a front approaches associated with a trough passing through the lakes and the SE ridge gets squeezed a bit southeast. Pwats will increase and we will likely see near record high pwats for the time of year and have a good focus for rain/storms starting by mid week. A widespread 1-3 inches of rain for a good part of NC/SC/Ga looks likely with a core of 3-6 within that likely. I'm not sure a second landfall of ETA takes place the storm may eat so much dry air and shear as it interacts with the trough the LLC eventually spins down or dies off inching south. Regardless the southern and eastern parts of the Fl peninsula will have a few days of heavy rain and gusty wind.
Click to expand...
Definitely looks wet
1604758350656.png

1604758381765.png
 
@Shaggy totally agree, that qpf map is sad.... nobody wants that type of rain this time of year. It really hurts farmers who are in the middle of harvest
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Seems kind of odd to show a lot of rain in South FL, then not much in North FL, then more rain in GA ? Why the rain hole in between ?
Click to expand...
Makes landfall in south Fl, then moves west into gulf, most of the heaviest rain stays south and then the moisture gets pulled northward by the trough, bringing the 2nd axis of heaviest precip northward but west of N. Fl
 
Special advisory

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph
(95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
expected through Sunday night.
 
This thing strengthening in the gulf scares me if it decides to shoot north.
 
Lol at these ensemblesFB_IMG_1604788886040.jpg
GFS going crazy with intensity in the Gulf

received_1260349510992572.jpeg



gfs_ir_seus_17.png

then it moves south and dies, never makes another landfall lol
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top