ForsythSnow
Moderator
I had to slow down and read that carefully lol. The bigger question is, will this be the modoki we hope for or a flop? Time will tell.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the beginning part attempts to explain why the MJO wave occurred when it did. You tend to see large MJO pulses near the beginning and end of the monsoon season & we had a minor sudden stratospheric warming event in the southern Hemisphere that raised the tropical tropopause and increased the instability there, potentially favoring deeper convection over the warm pool during September.
As for the modoki being what we hope for, it remains to be seen (as usual). Only one or two storms will make or break our winter (large internal variability) and it's often a fools errand to try & predict if we'll get one of those near/south of the I-40 corridor because the large-scale pattern doesn't have to be necessarily correlated w/ total snow & ice here. Once you get into the northern US where winter storms occur more frequently than liquid precip in much of the winter, it's a much different story.
Nino 3.4 is at 0.5 C.
CPC seems to think the current warming in Niño 3.4 is temporary and not a shift back to El Niño, even if the atmosphere has been Niño-leaning at times:
"The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."
"The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."
They are going to ignore this particular Nino until it swims up and bites them in the a$$.
Nino 3.4 has warmed to 0.8 C.
Nino 3.4 has cooled down to 0.7 C.
BHS1975
Member
So is this some kind of hybrid nino?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
From what I understand, it is and will likely be officially labeled as ENSO neutral as the index will fail to meet the defined threshold for NINO conditions. However, how is the atmosphere behaving? It seems to be acting NINOish, even if it's officially a warm neutral.
SnowNiner
Member
That would be great. Lest we forget we had a technical nino last winter, which acted like a nina. Turnabout is fair play.
Nino 3.4 is at 0.5 C.
Nino 3.4 has dropped to 0.4 C.
Nino 3.4 is down to 0.3 C.
Nino 3.4 is at 0.2 C.
Nino 3.4 is down to 0.1 C.
Nino 3.4 went up to 0.6 C.
Nino 3.4 remains the same this week.
Nino 3.4 actually cooled back 0.3 from +0.8 to +0.5.
Nino 3.4 went up to 0.6 C.