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Pattern ENSO Updates

It IS possible for 2 intelligent people to disagree when looking at the same or at least similar set of figures. Let's just say it is a difference of opinion and move on in the interest of board peace. I like both you guys and think you both bring up good points from time to time ( and no, nobody named me King of disputes) :p:p
 
Word on the street is el nino goose is cooked. La nina not out of question now as we roll forward. Interested in webb, Gawx thoughts?
 
Hot off the press, the latest Model plume for ENSO. Models still underestimating the cold pool in the Pacific though still a step forward towards a Nina/-Neutral. I do think the maps are Initializing to high. CDAS maps for TT are at 0.1 for 3.4 regions. NOAA's SST analysis is reflected off this site https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ which since 6/1 has cooled significantly.
June Run
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July Runfigure4.png
 
Webber, i have one question. I noticed you and mike ventrice got excited about this convectively coupled kelvin wave in the Pacific on Twitter. Does this have anything to do with the elniño weakening or is it more than just that? Thanks in advance.
 
accu35 said:
These patterns make great winter storms for the south if cold is in place. Phil, "If" lol.
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"If" is the operative word for any crystal ball pursuit ... like the lottery (or weather); just gotta recognize the odds going in ... :cool:
 
accu35 said:
These patterns make great winter storms for the south if cold is in place. Phil, "If" lol.
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Pretty sure the cooler the Enso region is, the weaker the Polar jet stream. The other way around for the Subtropical Jet. The cooler the better. Otherwise, we're going to have some hot soup with WAA as the Main Ingredient.
 
Interesting evolution in the ENSO region. There's been a large cooldown in the 3.4 regions and a warmup in 1+2. Maybe this is a sign of the beginning of more easterly wind expansion.
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Nino 3.4 skyrocketed 0.7 to go to +0.5 last week! The warming of 0.7 C is the largest weekly warming in at the very least 29 years (since weekly records began in 1990)! Could there be a connection between that rise and Sept. 2019 being the second most -SOI month of the last 3.5 years? I bet there's some connection.
 
We had a big MJO wave near the termination of the northern monsoon over the West Pac in early September, a downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave was generated and it's causing the warming that's currently being observed in the NINO 3.4 region. The +NPMM/-SPMM, mild tropical Atlantic, recent interannual-interdecadal variability/persistence suggests we're going to see a modoki/CP NINO this winter
 
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