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Pattern ENSO Updates

Nino 3.4 warmed from +0.2 to +0.4 in today's weekly update. The subsurface also warmed slightly.

The June Eurosip recently updated and is a little warmer than the May update with low end weak El Niño (near +0.5 in Niño 3.4) for ASO averaged out with it warming to near +0.6 in Oct. This near +0.5 compares to near +0.35 for ASO in the May update.

Consistent with this warming, it has even higher pressures in the MDR for ASO from near 30W westward through the Caribbean and the GOM vs the already pretty high pressures shown in the May update. This update now has slightly higher pressure than the June ASO forecast for 2014. The June forecast for ASO 2015 is still somewhat higher with the pressures and is the only June forecast showing higher ASO pressures vs 2018. The message is clearly to expect a pretty quiet season in the MDR through the GOM overall with perhaps near normal north of 30-35N east of the CONUS to possibly up to near the NE US/SE Canada assuming this forecast has a decent clue.
 
I just compared May and June Eurosip and found that June overall still averaged too warm for ASO by almost the same margin: +0.4 for June vs the +0.5 of May. Some Junes were significantly cooler than the respective May like 2017 and 2007 but others were slightly warmer and further away like 2012 (June 1.0 too warm vs May's 0.9 too warm), 2009 (June 0.4 too warm vs May's 0.2 too warm), 2008 (June 0.9 too warm vs May's 0.8 too warm), and 2005 (June 0.6 too warm vs May's 0.4 too warm).

Here is the list of years with June being available:

Year: Eurosip's June fcast verification for ASO 3.4
2017: 0.6 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2016: 0.1 cooler (weak La Niña correctly predicted)
2015: 0.3 warmer (strong El Niño correctly predicted)
2014: 0.5 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2012: 1.0 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs moderate El Niño prediction)
2009: 0.4 cooler (weak El Niño occurred vs moderate El Nino predicted)
2008: 0.9 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2007: 0.1 warmer (moderate La Niña correctly predicted)
2006: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2005: 0.6 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Nino prediction)

So, 4 of these 10 June forecasts were pretty much correct (2016, 2015, 2007, 2006) for the ENSO phase for ASO with 2015 actually ending up 0.3 warmer. Perhaps that represents the upside risk, which would mean an actual SST of near +0.8 for ASO of 2018 max. Three were still 2 categories too warm: 2012, 2008, and 2005. Per the current OHC, 2018 is just a little cooler than 2009 and is a little warmer than 2006 and 2012. 2014 had been similar in May, but it plunged in June totally unlike the current case. 2017 was much cooler. So, the current OHC suggests ASO has a good chance to reach weak El Nino. The significant misses of the June Eurosips that predicted El Nino in ASO were 2014, 2012, 2009, and 2005. But 2014 can be thrown out since its OHC plunged in June. And 2012's OHC was near 0.3 cooler than 2018 is now. That leaves us with 2009 and 2005. 2005 was much cooler...so I can throw 2005 out. That leaves us with 2009 as the best analog, which as mentioned had a slightly warmer OHC. It also had a slightly warmer Nino 3.4 SST. As shown above, the June Eurosip for 2009 ended up 0.4 too warm for ASO 3.4 SST, which was +0.7. This all tells me that the coolest for ASO of 2018 3.4 SST may be around +0.1.

So, I'm currently in the +0.1 to +0.8 range for the ASO Nino 3.4 SST anomaly meaning either warm neutral or weak El Nino for ASO. My best guess for ASO: right on the border or near +0.4 to +0.5. This is a change from my prior prediction of warm neutral. Note that this prediction is taking into account current OHC and SST and, therefore, is not relying on just Eurosip.
 
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The MJJ ONI just came in at +0.1. The July OHC just came in at +0.81.

Based on a combination of the just released +0.1C MJJ ONI and July OHC of +0.81, will there be El Niño later this year (based on the ONI table) and into the winter? History back to 1979 says likely but 2012 says look at me as I didn’t become El Niño. Other than 2012, all years with July OHC near or warmer than July of 2018’s +0.81 and similar or warmer 3.4 SSTs (1989 was too cool at surface to count as analog) went on to become El Niño if they weren’t already. The closest analogs (those not yet at +0.5 in MJJ for ONI) are 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2012. 3 of these 4 went on to El Niño later in the year. El Niño has to still be favored imo but 2012 says don’t bet the ranch on it just yet.
 
GaWx said:
The MJJ ONI just came in at +0.1. The July OHC just came in at +0.81.

Based on a combination of the just released +0.1C MJJ ONI and July OHC of +0.81, will there be El Niño later this year (based on the ONI table) and into the winter? History back to 1979 says likely but 2012 says look at me as I didn’t become El Niño. Other than 2012, all years with July OHC near or warmer than July of 2018’s +0.81 and similar or warmer 3.4 SSTs (1989 was too cool at surface to count as analog) went on to become El Niño if they weren’t already. The closest analogs (those not yet at +0.5 in MJJ for ONI) are 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2012. 3 of these 4 went on to El Niño later in the year. El Niño has to still be favored imo but 2012 says don’t bet the ranch on it just yet.
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Larry,
As always, great info! Really appreciated!!!
Not gonna bet the ranch on anything, but I'll sell it at a discount, no Realtor® fee included, if this happens again ... LOL ...

cd2001-579-2424-31-b946-f572-4124-7549.216.14.23.47.prcp.png
 
Today’s update has Niño 3.4 cooled from +0.3 to +0.1 although it has OHC hanging up there near a still solidly warm +0.75, which I still think favors El Niño (likely Modoki) later in 2018. But remember that 2012, a very close analog per both 3.4 SST and OHC, was El Niño fail. So, don’t bet the ranch on El Niño even though I’d bet something on it. Eurosip has for several months of forecasts been showing a delay in 3.4 warming in late summer. So, this delay is no surprise.
 
GaWx said:
Today’s update has Niño 3.4 cooled from +0.3 to +0.1 although it has OHC hanging up there near a still solidly warm +0.75, which I still think favors El Niño (likely Modoki) later in 2018. But remember that 2012, a very close analog per both 3.4 SST and OHC, was El Niño fail. So, don’t bet the ranch on El Niño even though I’d bet something on it. Eurosip has for several months of forecasts been showing a delay in 3.4 warming in late summer. So, this delay is no surprise.
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Nino fail possibly. Cold pool in eastern tropical pac is expanding. The 73/83/98 super nino's all had 3 year nina's that followed. It would make sense to have another nina this winter with move to nino in 2019.

oisst_anom_3d_globe_2018081300.png Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif
 
Kylo said:
Nino fail possibly. Cold pool in eastern tropical pac is expanding. The 73/83/98 super nino's all had 3 year nina's that followed. It would make sense to have another nina this winter with move to nino in 2019.

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Please confess that this is all a Halloween trick or treat post sent a couple months early ... :eek:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In all seriousness, thanks for sharing "page two" and "the rest of the story" as Paul Harvey used to say ... now let's see where JB takes this since it's a WB model run ... :cool:
 
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It looks like that we could go to Neutral this winter. If it goes back and forth for the next few months then Neutral it is.
 
pcbjr said:
Please confess that this is all a Halloween trick or treat post sent a couple months early ... :eek:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In all seriousness, thanks for sharing "page two" and "the rest of the story" as Paul Harvey used to say ... now let's see where JB takes this since it's a WB model run ... :cool:
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Well the good news is if there is a nino it will be central based.
 
Snowfan said:
It looks like that we could go to Neutral this winter. If it goes back and forth for the next few months then Neutral it is.
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That's what I would think if the warming doesn't happen as much as we anticipate. I'll go with a warm-neutral to weak El-Nino either way this winter for now. No way we could get something strong or a weak La-Nina though if it cooled by winter we could get a cool-neutral. Not sure where that puts us statistically for probability of a good storm since it also relies on other variables such as basis of the ENSO, QBO. It's too early to talk about PNA, AO and NAO and we will just have to see what comes this year, though I bet we won't see a good stretch of -NAOs like we normally don't of course.
 
Kylo said:
Nino fail possibly. Cold pool in eastern tropical pac is expanding. The 73/83/98 super nino's all had 3 year nina's that followed. It would make sense to have another nina this winter with move to nino in 2019.

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I think the residual warm pool is too warm to allow for La Niña. I’m still leaning weak to low end moderate El Niño but could certainly see a warm neutral as a reasonable possibility, which would per climo stats reduce the chance of a cold SE winter. However, there has been a very cold warm neutral winter: 1935/6. Also, 1960/1 was pretty cold with quite cold Dec/Jan.
 
GaWx said:
I think the residual warm pool is too warm to allow for La Niña. I’m still leaning weak to low end moderate El Niño but could certainly see a warm neutral as a reasonable possibility, which would per climo stats reduce the chance of a cold SE winter. However, there has been a very cold warm neutral winter: 1935/6. Also, 1960/1 was pretty cold with quite cold Dec/Jan.
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I agree, don't see enough of a cold pool to go nina like last years failed nino. I definitely get the winter hype with central pac nino potential, low solar and descending eQBO.
 
GaWx said:
I think the residual warm pool is too warm to allow for La Niña. I’m still leaning weak to low end moderate El Niño but could certainly see a warm neutral as a reasonable possibility, which would per climo stats reduce the chance of a cold SE winter. However, there has been a very cold warm neutral winter: 1935/6. Also, 1960/1 was pretty cold with quite cold Dec/Jan.
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Yeah even a warm neutral winter would juice the subtropical jet a little more than normal there’s a pretty decent difference between warm neutral and weak Niño because the non linear feedbacks usually kick in right near the Niño threshold but 1935-36 is by far and away the coldest and snowiest winter in modern record keeping in NC with a whopping 26” for statewide avg snow. That’s almost 4x the long term average of ~ 7”. Other snowy warm neutral/weak Niño winters like 1904-05, 1911-12, 1913-14, 1914-15, 1958-59, 1968-69, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1979-80, 1986-87, 2003-04 were no slouch either. Of these aforementioned winters, I think 1979-80 likely gives 1935-36 the biggest run for its money esp in terms of snowfall, I don’t have the exact figures just yet, but soon enough I will :)
 
Today’s weekly update kept 3.4 at+0.3. More importantly, I see that OHC rose to a high for the year of near +1.00. That tells me that based on analogs that it is going to be difficult for there to not be El Niño as we proceed through this meteorological autumn. So, El Niño, despite the well forecasted pause til now, appears to be on track. Good news for cold winter chances based on climo, especially since it would be immediately following La Niña. Hopefully other things, like -NAO dominance, line up nicely to actually get us a cold winter.
 
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