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Pattern ENSO Updates

GaWx

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Nino 3.4 rose to 0.7 C.
With weekly SSTs stubbornly remaining within lower end weak El Niño, there’s a chance that FMA will barely remain in lower end weak. If that happens, a very weak ONI based El Niño may end up being the case on the latest version of the ONI chart as 5 trimonthly +0.5 readings in a row would be achieved.

Looking ahead, is there a reasonable chance that weak El Niño will persist through summer? What about fall/winter? Any opinions?
 
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With weekly SSTs stubbornly remaining within lower end weak El Niño, there’s a chance that FMA will barely remain in lower end weak. If that happens, a very weak ONI based El Niño may end up being the case on the latest version of the ONI chart as 5 trimonthly +0.5 readings in a row would be achieved.

Looking ahead, is there a reasonable chance that weak El Niño will persist through summer? What about fall/winter? Any opinions?
Sure hope we don’t see a Niño for a long long time ... ready reshuffle things. Give me a moderate strong La Niña
 

GaWx

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Sure hope we don’t see a Niño for a long long time ... ready reshuffle things. Give me a moderate strong La Niña
My feeling is that to really get a reshuffle, the best bet would be to finally get a relative cooling of the ridiculously warm W Pacific equatorial region as they’ve been largely in control the last few years regardless of ENSO.
 

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I think a moderate Nina is coming and that this winter will make last years look cold
It will change many time between here and than. I'm not worried this far out, I've had the best luck with winter storms from Nina's. BRING IT
 

GeorgiaGirl

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Idk, I might take my chances with a weak Nina (final edit, I know there is plenty of time for it to get to where it's more than a weak Nina).

1. One of our last Nino winters basically acted like a Nina anyway (not that it was a good winter, but it acted like a Nina even though it was technically a Nino). So, why not just go ahead and have a Nina instead of a Nino that might give false hope.

2. The EPO has been by large, what's controlled most of the last major southeast winter storms anyway. It might not be as good in the eastern parts of the southeast but when we've had an -EPO we've had more shots. The 17/18 winter ended early due to the Nina but I seem to be remembering we had multiple good enough -EPO's for a shot before it ended and that was the main controlling factor.
 

MichaelJ

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Give me a la nina with a -nao and I'll ride that horse to the bank
And how often do you think this has happened? Since 1950, here are the years where we had weak la nina's 1954-55, 1964-65, 1971-72, 74-75, 83-84, 84-85, 2000-2001, 05-06, 08-09, 16-17, 17-18
Moderate La Ninas 1955-56, 70-71, 95-96, 2011-12
Strong 1988-89, 98-99, 99-2000, 07-08, 2010-11
While I realize GSO is not the only city in our region, it is one of the snowiest on average. During weak La Nina years, snowfall was roughly 20% below normal. During moderate years, it average about 25% below normal. During strong years it averaged 38% below normal. Now we had a couple of years where it was nice totals but by and large we need to hope for the weakest Nina we can get because the percentage of normal snow goes down as Nina gets stronger.
 

SD

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And how often do you think this has happened? Since 1950, here are the years where we had weak la nina's 1954-55, 1964-65, 1971-72, 74-75, 83-84, 84-85, 2000-2001, 05-06, 08-09, 16-17, 17-18
Moderate La Ninas 1955-56, 70-71, 95-96, 2011-12
Strong 1988-89, 98-99, 99-2000, 07-08, 2010-11
While I realize GSO is not the only city in our region, it is one of the snowiest on average. During weak La Nina years, snowfall was roughly 20% below normal. During moderate years, it average about 25% below normal. During strong years it averaged 38% below normal. Now we had a couple of years where it was nice totals but by and large we need to hope for the weakest Nina we can get because the percentage of normal snow goes down as Nina gets stronger.
NAO_Interactions.png
Its really not more or less frequent than anything else.
 

GaWx

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We can talk as much as we want about ENSO but the odds are imo the SE will have another solidly AN winter, regardless. The trend is our friend (or enemy in this case for those like me who would prefer cold) and GW is getting worse despite the current sunspot minimum. Also and very importantly, the Indonesia and vicinity SSTs remain ridiculously warm. That promotes the MJO being in the warm phases a lot (right side of the circle/SE ridge domination) like what has happened in recent winters. So, not only do we have background GW getting worse, we have the MJO making it even warmer. I'm expecting mild (at least several degrees warmer than normal), but will still enjoy what are always my favorite times of year, autumn and winter as we finally get by the domination of hot and humid and we get the typical wide swings/wx changes from day to day

Regardless of my thinking, my feeling is that there's little reason to think that most SE forecasts will be for AN for DJF averaged out due to bias/weenyism. I can't remember even one winter in my ~20 years following SE wx boards that most winter forecasts were warm. Not even one. So, we know the strong cold bias in seasonal forecasts is real.
 
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Cad Wedge NC

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We can talk as much as we want about ENSO but the odds are imo the SE will have another solidly AN winter, regardless. The trend is our friend (or enemy in this case for those like me who would prefer cold) and GW is getting worse despite the current sunspot minimum. Also and very importantly, the Indonesia and vicinity SSTs remain ridiculously warm. That promotes the MJO being in the warm phases a lot (right side of the circle/SE ridge domination) like what has happened in recent winters. So, not only do we have background GW getting worse, we have the MJO making it even warmer. I'm expecting mild (at least several degrees warmer than normal), but will still enjoy what are always my favorite times of year, autumn and winter as we finally get by the domination of hot and humid and we get the typical wide swings/wx changes from day to day

Regardless of my thinking, my feeling is that there's little reason to think that most SE forecasts will be for AN for DJF averaged out due to bias/weenyism. I can't remember even one winter in my ~20 years following SE wx boards that most winter forecasts were warm. Not even one. So, we know the strong cold bias in seasonal forecasts is real.
There is an element of wish-casting involved. Folks let their feelings influence their better judgments.
 
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We can talk as much as we want about ENSO but the odds are imo the SE will have another solidly AN winter, regardless. The trend is our friend (or enemy in this case for those like me who would prefer cold) and GW is getting worse despite the current sunspot minimum. Also and very importantly, the Indonesia and vicinity SSTs remain ridiculously warm. That promotes the MJO being in the warm phases a lot (right side of the circle/SE ridge domination) like what has happened in recent winters. So, not only do we have background GW getting worse, we have the MJO making it even warmer. I'm expecting mild (at least several degrees warmer than normal), but will still enjoy what are always my favorite times of year, autumn and winter as we finally get by the domination of hot and humid and we get the typical wide swings/wx changes from day to day

Regardless of my thinking, my feeling is that there's little reason to think that most SE forecasts will be for AN for DJF averaged out due to bias/weenyism. I can't remember even one winter in my ~20 years following SE wx boards that most winter forecasts were warm. Not even one. So, we know the strong cold bias in seasonal forecasts is real.
I'm not sure it's possible anymore to finish winter anything but above average. It's hard enough to get any given month below average, much less a season.

With La Nina looming I see this winter breaking records and not in the way we want. We know the NAO is a lost cause anymore for whatever reason and that almost certainly will continue. Combine that with the warm waters of Indonesia where the MJO will likely screw up any EPO help and you have a recipe for disaster. I hope I'm wrong as my pessimism has hit all time highs the last 5 years or so for winter, but odds are I'm correct.
 

cd2play

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I'm not sure it's possible anymore to finish winter anything but above average. It's hard enough to get any given month below average, much less a season.

With La Nina looming I see this winter breaking records and not in the way we want. We know the NAO is a lost cause anymore for whatever reason and that almost certainly will continue. Combine that with the warm waters of Indonesia where the MJO will likely screw up any EPO help and you have a recipe for disaster. I hope I'm wrong as my pessimism has hit all time highs the last 5 years or so for winter, but odds are I'm correct.
Probably no football AND no snow for 20-21. Is there a cliff diving icon on here anywhere?
 
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