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Pattern ENSO Updates

GaWx

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Nino 3.4 rose to 0.7 C.
With weekly SSTs stubbornly remaining within lower end weak El Niño, there’s a chance that FMA will barely remain in lower end weak. If that happens, a very weak ONI based El Niño may end up being the case on the latest version of the ONI chart as 5 trimonthly +0.5 readings in a row would be achieved.

Looking ahead, is there a reasonable chance that weak El Niño will persist through summer? What about fall/winter? Any opinions?
 
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With weekly SSTs stubbornly remaining within lower end weak El Niño, there’s a chance that FMA will barely remain in lower end weak. If that happens, a very weak ONI based El Niño may end up being the case on the latest version of the ONI chart as 5 trimonthly +0.5 readings in a row would be achieved.

Looking ahead, is there a reasonable chance that weak El Niño will persist through summer? What about fall/winter? Any opinions?
Sure hope we don’t see a Niño for a long long time ... ready reshuffle things. Give me a moderate strong La Niña
 

GaWx

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Sure hope we don’t see a Niño for a long long time ... ready reshuffle things. Give me a moderate strong La Niña
My feeling is that to really get a reshuffle, the best bet would be to finally get a relative cooling of the ridiculously warm W Pacific equatorial region as they’ve been largely in control the last few years regardless of ENSO.
 
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