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Pattern ENSO Updates

pcbjr

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These patterns make great winter storms for the south if cold is in place. Phil, "If" lol.
"If" is the operative word for any crystal ball pursuit ... like the lottery (or weather); just gotta recognize the odds going in ... :cool:
 

Ollie Williams

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These patterns make great winter storms for the south if cold is in place. Phil, "If" lol.
Pretty sure the cooler the Enso region is, the weaker the Polar jet stream. The other way around for the Subtropical Jet. The cooler the better. Otherwise, we're going to have some hot soup with WAA as the Main Ingredient.
 

Ollie Williams

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Interesting evolution in the ENSO region. There's been a large cooldown in the 3.4 regions and a warmup in 1+2. Maybe this is a sign of the beginning of more easterly wind expansion.
cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

nino34.png
nino12.png
 
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GaWx

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Nino 3.4 skyrocketed 0.7 to go to +0.5 last week! The warming of 0.7 C is the largest weekly warming in at the very least 29 years (since weekly records began in 1990)! Could there be a connection between that rise and Sept. 2019 being the second most -SOI month of the last 3.5 years? I bet there's some connection.
 

Webberweather53

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We had a big MJO wave near the termination of the northern monsoon over the West Pac in early September, a downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave was generated and it's causing the warming that's currently being observed in the NINO 3.4 region. The +NPMM/-SPMM, mild tropical Atlantic, recent interannual-interdecadal variability/persistence suggests we're going to see a modoki/CP NINO this winter
 

ForsythSnow

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We had a big MJO wave near the termination of the northern monsoon over the West Pac in early September, a downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave was generated and it's causing the warming that's currently being observed in the NINO 3.4 region. The +NPMM/-SPMM, mild tropical Atlantic, recent interannual-interdecadal variability/persistence suggests we're going to see a modoki/CP NINO this winter
I had to slow down and read that carefully lol. The bigger question is, will this be the modoki we hope for or a flop? Time will tell.
 

Webberweather53

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I had to slow down and read that carefully lol. The bigger question is, will this be the modoki we hope for or a flop? Time will tell.
Yeah the beginning part attempts to explain why the MJO wave occurred when it did. You tend to see large MJO pulses near the beginning and end of the monsoon season & we had a minor sudden stratospheric warming event in the southern Hemisphere that raised the tropical tropopause and increased the instability there, potentially favoring deeper convection over the warm pool during September.

As for the modoki being what we hope for, it remains to be seen (as usual). Only one or two storms will make or break our winter (large internal variability) and it's often a fools errand to try & predict if we'll get one of those near/south of the I-40 corridor because the large-scale pattern doesn't have to be necessarily correlated w/ total snow & ice here. Once you get into the northern US where winter storms occur more frequently than liquid precip in much of the winter, it's a much different story.
 

CyclonicFury

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CPC seems to think the current warming in Niño 3.4 is temporary and not a shift back to El Niño, even if the atmosphere has been Niño-leaning at times:

"The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."
 

Rain Cold

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CPC seems to think the current warming in Niño 3.4 is temporary and not a shift back to El Niño, even if the atmosphere has been Niño-leaning at times:

"The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."
They are going to ignore this particular Nino until it swims up and bites them in the a$$.
 

Rain Cold

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So is this some kind of hybrid nino?


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From what I understand, it is and will likely be officially labeled as ENSO neutral as the index will fail to meet the defined threshold for NINO conditions. However, how is the atmosphere behaving? It seems to be acting NINOish, even if it's officially a warm neutral.
 

SnowNiner

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From what I understand, it is and will likely be officially labeled as ENSO neutral as the index will fail to meet the defined threshold for NINO conditions. However, how is the atmosphere behaving? It seems to be acting NINOish, even if it's officially a warm neutral.
That would be great. Lest we forget we had a technical nino last winter, which acted like a nina. Turnabout is fair play.
 
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