Pretty sure the cooler the Enso region is, the weaker the Polar jet stream. The other way around for the Subtropical Jet. The cooler the better. Otherwise, we're going to have some hot soup with WAA as the Main Ingredient.These patterns make great winter storms for the south if cold is in place. Phil, "If" lol.
I had to slow down and read that carefully lol. The bigger question is, will this be the modoki we hope for or a flop? Time will tell.We had a big MJO wave near the termination of the northern monsoon over the West Pac in early September, a downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave was generated and it's causing the warming that's currently being observed in the NINO 3.4 region. The +NPMM/-SPMM, mild tropical Atlantic, recent interannual-interdecadal variability/persistence suggests we're going to see a modoki/CP NINO this winter
Yeah the beginning part attempts to explain why the MJO wave occurred when it did. You tend to see large MJO pulses near the beginning and end of the monsoon season & we had a minor sudden stratospheric warming event in the southern Hemisphere that raised the tropical tropopause and increased the instability there, potentially favoring deeper convection over the warm pool during September.I had to slow down and read that carefully lol. The bigger question is, will this be the modoki we hope for or a flop? Time will tell.
They are going to ignore this particular Nino until it swims up and bites them in the a$$.CPC seems to think the current warming in Niño 3.4 is temporary and not a shift back to El Niño, even if the atmosphere has been Niño-leaning at times:
"The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period)."
From what I understand, it is and will likely be officially labeled as ENSO neutral as the index will fail to meet the defined threshold for NINO conditions. However, how is the atmosphere behaving? It seems to be acting NINOish, even if it's officially a warm neutral.So is this some kind of hybrid nino?
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That would be great. Lest we forget we had a technical nino last winter, which acted like a nina. Turnabout is fair play.From what I understand, it is and will likely be officially labeled as ENSO neutral as the index will fail to meet the defined threshold for NINO conditions. However, how is the atmosphere behaving? It seems to be acting NINOish, even if it's officially a warm neutral.