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Pattern ENSO Updates

Largest weekly drop on record in Nino 3.4 (0.7) to -1.1!
 
East based NINAs are usually more conducive to North Atlantic blocking (especially early-mid winter) due to their alterations in mean heating center in the tropics although it's often nowhere near as profound as during NINO events... The current regime should favor at least some episodic blocking in the first half of winter, thereafter with descending EQBO regime, SE US ridge likely to becoming more prevalent esp in February and March
 
Webberweather53 said:
East based NINAs are usually more conducive to North Atlantic blocking (especially early-mid winter) due to their alterations in mean heating center in the tropics although it's often nowhere near as profound as during NINO events... The current regime should favor at least some episodic blocking in the first half of winter, thereafter with descending EQBO regime, SE US ridge likely to becoming more prevalent esp in February and March
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just curious, was 84-85 an east-based Nina?
 
Looks like my wish-casting might have worked this time.... lol. Seriously, this is certainly better news than last week's report.
 
GaWx said:
Today's 3.4 update was 0.3 warmer (-0.8), which increases the chance that the ONI peak (trimonthly) will only be weak Niña as opposed to moderate Niña vs how it looked last week.
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Yesterday's weekly 3.4 warmed very slightly from -0.8 to -0.7. But that is enough to continue to increase the chance even more that La Niña trimonthly will peak as weak to perhaps low level moderate (which I have starting at -0.9) vs higher level moderate.
 
Snowfan said:
The 12/11 update has it at -0.8 C.
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This only very slight cooling to -0.8, which is still 0.3 warmer than 3-4 weeks ago's -1.1, is even more encouraging news that supports that the Niña trimonthly peak will likely turn out to be only weak as by this time the weeklies are often either approaching or have already reached peak. Perhaps the weekly peak will turn out to be -1.1. If so, a -1.1 would favor a trimonthly peak of weak Niña. The TAO buoys and Cowan's graphs both pretty much support this idea. We'll see.
 
The 12/26 update goes down to - 1.0 C.
The 1/2 update goes up to - 0.6 C.
 
It still looks like a split between north of the equator and south of the equator. The south ( especially south east ) a moderate La Nina. the north is a slight El nino. I think the warmer North East has limited the effects of La Nina this year.
 
CPC says the La Niña will last until the spring then Neutral conditions.
 
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