A neutral to weak Nina is one piece of the puzzle that can lead to more activity if other factors align as well. However there are quite a few other factors involved that will need to be watched as we approach hurricane season.Larry,
Not exactly (as Bob Dylan might say) "my cup of meat." Big drop this time of year - please elucidate on probabilistic implications on 'Cane season.
Tidbits and especially TAO buoys agree as both say El Niño has generally been restrengthening over the last couple of weeks:Nino 3.4 went up to +1.0 C.
El Nino winters tend to benefit areas along/NW of I-85 the most like the Triad, western piedmont, etc. but I haven't seen much of a signal in either direction southeast of there in the Triangle and coastal plain. What really happens in most NINO winters is the seasonal gradients across the piedmont just get larger. From that standpoint, it can seem crappy if you're not in that favored corridor but holistically the winters aren't bad. There's simply too much internal variability and just a general lack of events SE of GSO to discern underlying ENSO tendencies in seasonal snowfall down here, and that's true even if you look at the entire RDU record and use the ENS ONI index I linked above. What you would see however if you compared GSO & RDU's records is that their seasonal snowfall difference in NINO winters gets larger but RDU is still within striking distance of average in NINO or NINA.2010-11 and 2017-18 were Niña winters though, both produced above normal snowfall across most of the southeast. El Niño winters seem to be great for the NC mountains and mid-Atlantic, but suck for snow if you live south of I-85.
Webb,I've significantly updated and revised my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI), which now includes the brand new HADSST4 dataset in the analysis. The inclusion of this dataset helped improve the quality control constraints in the early part of the record, resulting in a very slight yet noticeable increase in the amplitude of pre-1950 ENSO events vs the previous version of this index. I suspect there's still some dampening occurring before 1950 due to the large spread between available datasets but I think this new version of the ENS ONI has taken another step in the right direction.
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Yeah there's definitely a centennial-scale cycle evident in the ENS ONI data, with ENSO being relatively active near the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, and more quiescent conditions in the middle of the 20th century. Whether or not this extremely low-frequency 100 ish year cycle in ENSO amplitude is actually a real, recurrent theme or just happened by chance remains to be seen but it's very interesting nonetheless.Webb,
To the untrained eye, it looks rather symmetrical ... ?
Precisely.Yeah there's definitely a centennial-scale cycle evident in the ENS ONI data, with ENSO being relatively active near the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, and more quiescent conditions in the middle of the 20th century. Whether or not this extremely low-frequency 100 ish year cycle in ENSO amplitude is actually a real, recurrent theme or just happened by chance remains to be seen but it's very interesting nonetheless.
It doesn't really matter the ENSO state. We already know it'll be warm for the majority of winter. Just have to hope the two week winter we get meets up with moisture.2010-11 and 2017-18 were Niña winters though, both produced above normal snowfall across most of the southeast. El Niño winters seem to be great for the NC mountains and mid-Atlantic, but suck for snow if you live south of I-85.
I'm not liking it either in the reason of Hurricanes, but could be good for our upcoming winter. Even if it's a neutral/warm neutral I'll take my chances. Thanks for the update.El Nino is waning with all 4 sectors currently in a neutral state at the same time. Technically that would put us in a neutral to warm neutral state and if it holds the next few months could be a significant influence for hurricane season. With an active WAM and the possibility of reduced shear due to a neutral state... it could be an ugly hurricane season. Still a lot of variables and unknowns but not liking what I'm seeing right now.
Subsurface heat is declining.
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Not much in the way of WWB's to work with in the near future either.
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The subsurface cooling is shown in this graphic pretty well, this region was much warmer a few weeks ago.
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The Triton graphic is likely skewed too cold but it largely agrees with the one posted above with the general theme of colder subsurface SST's spreading and taking over in contrast with the warmer subsurface we saw last year at this time.
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The CFSv2 is showing a decline into neutral territory.
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As is this dataset
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Overall I still remain quite skeptical of a full blown mod to strong Nino developing this year. In fact I myself am leaning towards the idea of a transition into a warmish neutral state by June or July, something in the .2 to .4C range. Obviously we are still in the spring barrier where things can change quickly but what I'm seeing so far leads me to believe we might have a neutral or weak Nina this upcoming winter. Many hurricane season outlooks are basing their predictions off an El Nino lasting through the peak of the season. If it actually weakens to neutral before then that could change things somewhat.. Still a long ways to go.
Interesting article and seems to line up with the changes we are seeing in the SST anomalies in the Pacific.https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/boost-for-monsoon-as-el-nino-wanes/amp_articleshow/69949234.cms
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Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin ... Let's hope and hope it stays through October, at least ...Today’s 2 Euro runs suggest that after the next two days that there will be a dominating -SOI for most of the subsequent 8+ days (I think tomorrow and Saturday will actually be positive as Darwin comes down). Much of this is due to relatively high Darwin SLPs most days. As a matter of fact, 7/8 and 7/12 could be close to 1016 there. Also, Tahiti gets low late in the run. So, the most -SOIs of the next 10 days may actually end up toward the end.
Considering what lies ahead SOI-wise, El Niño could return within a few weeks though there often is a couple of week lag.