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Pattern Dry July 2024

Think it hit 101 in Charlotte! Crazy heatwave!
 
jeremyt said:
Loving the look of the 6z GFS for precip, probably won't come to fruition but one can hope.
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Outside of a tropical system or a stalled ull this upcoming pattern is about as good as you can get for most of nc in the summer for widespread rain over a multi day period.
 
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SD said:
Outside of a tropical system or a stalled ull this upcoming pattern is about as good as you can get for most of nc in the summer for widespread rain over a multi day period.
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The storms east of me yesterday didn't move and dropped 4 inches in places...even had a flash flood warning. Guess we all just have to wait till we finally get lucky and have one of these storms park over us.
 
Downeastnc said:
The storms east of me yesterday didn't move and dropped 4 inches in places...even had a flash flood warning. Guess we all just have to wait till we finally get lucky and have one of these storms park over us.
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I think that today and tomorrow have pretty widespread coverage. I am concerned today just lines up just W of 95 and sits there but instability and pwats will be so high outflow collisions and propagation should help spread things out
 
Brick Tamland said:
Greg Fishel's response to WRAL met Kat Campbell's Facebook post about RDU hitting 106.

My point is this. The science categorically supports the idea that Man is warming the climate. But bad data is bad data. There isn't a properly sited observation anywhere in Wake County within 5 degrees F of that RDU reading. It's pure and unadulterated trash!
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seems that both things can be true that yesterday was a historically hot day but not all time hot, maybe worthy of 102-103 reading under a median microclimate. i don't know what rdu's voodoo magic is but everything i'm reading clocks it as a microclimate issue and not a sensor issue. idk how you fix it since having that long term, historical source of data in the same place is valuable. on a side not i don't think you are blasting past records with this kind of air mass, to me it will take something advected in from the west/plains with lower moisture content and a southwest downsloping wind.

also be kind to kat i texted her this morning and she sent me back a message that isn't forum appropriate, i think all rdu weather teams are at their wits end on this little sensor issue
 
Downeastnc said:
The storms east of me yesterday didn't move and dropped 4 inches in places...even had a flash flood warning. Guess we all just have to wait till we finally get lucky and have one of these storms park over us.
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I'm hoping today is the day we finally get one of those soakers. We've had the worst luck since the beginning of June.
 
1 pm readings today.

RDU - 96
FAY - 92
GSO - 89

RDU on fire again today.

To be fair, Halifax is also at 95, so maybe RDU’s reading isn’t too crazy.
 
All they have to do is make sure the sensor isn't over or near the runways, and make sure it isn't in any kind of direct sunlight. Why do they refuse to do that? Bigger question, why are the official reporting sensors at airports in the first place? They should be located in a park or federal land that is protected. With fiber or cellular connectivity there is no excuse.
 
WPC just posted a special precip discussion for training cells between BMX & FFC with rates 2-3” /hr in some areas

***********

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0576
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Central AL...Central GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061839Z - 070039Z

Summary...Thunderstorm coverage is rapidly expanding along and behind a weak cold front across the Southeast. Very slow storm motions (5-10 kts) combined with 2-3"/hr rainfall rates in the most intense cells along the front will support some flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar and IR imagery depict a focused corridor of rapid thunderstorm development along a weak cold front which has stalled across the Southeast. The most intense of these cells were nearly stationary halfway between a KBMX to KFFC line, with dual-pol and MRMS hourly rainfall estimates highlighting 2-2.5"/hr rainfall rates with this activity.

The mesoscale environment in the vicinity of the front remains very conducive for heavy rainfall, with 2.2-2.4" PWATs, 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE, and 5-10 kts of southwesterly 850-300 mb mean flow noted per recent GPS and mesoanalysis trends. With the front forecast to remain stalled and steering flow parallel to the boundary, these slow moving and training cells will continue through the afternoon. The 12z HREF maintains high (50-60%) probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches along the front through 0Z tonight, with individual members showing 5-6". Although soil saturation percentiles are near normal and FFGs are high across the region, a few instances of flash flooding appear possible given the overall efficiency and prolonged residence times of these cells.

Asherman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...
 
J.C. said:
All they have to do is make sure the sensor isn't over or near the runways, and make sure it isn't in any kind of direct sunlight. Why do they refuse to do that? Bigger question, why are the official reporting sensors at airports in the first place? They should be located in a park or federal land that is protected. With fiber or cellular connectivity there is no excuse.
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"It's 85 degrees at the airport which is stupid cause no one lives at the airport". George Carlin
 
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The sensor at the airport is seated with aviation being the number one priority and not climate data. By now everybody knows the equipment is functioning properly. It's just not useful for climate data collection.

The sensor needs to be moved, or another location needs to be used for the climate official reporting. I'm not sure why it isnt being addressed year after year, but by now, we all know the data is accurate but not representative of anything useful.
 
ILMRoss said:
also be kind to kat i texted her this morning and she sent me back a message that isn't forum appropriate, i think all rdu weather teams are at their wits end on this little sensor issue
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My gut feeling(and it’s just that) is that one of them wasn’t the easiest person to work with.

Mike and Kat both mentioned last week the doubt they have in that station.
 
It looks like the storms to the southwest of Wake County are starting to finally get organized. I'm hearing a lot of thunder where I live but no rain yet. Looking at the radar it looks like it will be here soon enough.
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeah the instability from strong heating is winning out now. The HRRR shows a much weaker cap tomorrow.


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Outflow from the stuff down east is hustling toys way it'll be interesting to see if that fires some new stuff or if we are using up all the cape
 
SD said:
Outflow from the stuff down east is hustling toys way it'll be interesting to see if that fires some new stuff or if we are using up all the cape
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I hope so. Rates are kinda weak here.


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We are done in most of upstate SC for today and probably the next couple of days as well. That boundary is not going to come back north until maybe Tuesday at the earliest.
 
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