Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th

[Xtreme Weather]

To date at least 12 tornado paths have been confirmed with a few more areas left to look at and classify from BMX, HUN and ATL per latest PIS.

I'm not sure what happened in this thread but it seemed 1/4 of the post were about how this was gonna bust or was busting big time. I don't get if you paid attention to the models runs the modeling showed this to be a north and East AL event for the most part a few runs sprinkled in showed some showers/storms South of Tuscaloosa Birmingham area but was not consistent. That is why every (I think) sounding I showed in this thread was either for North or East AL and W GA because in other areas showed non svr soundings. I went back to look at models data prior to event EURO and NAM...



Will add the warning vs SPC outlook in a few minutes gotta find it. They missed the southern part of the outlook area but were bang on in the enhanced and moderate area for the most part. Bash all you want but was a legit storm. Edit to add photo

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Update, 20 confirmed tornados now for AL, TN, MS and GA for the March 19 storms.

... Carry on


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[WarEagle22]

Well said Xtreme. I come to this forum for the analysis and opinion of more knowledgeable people than myself and for my true fascination with weather. I didn't understand why everyone was screaming bust and making out like nothing was going to happen. The system wasn't even in the "ripe" areas yet, or into the time frames that had been predicted. This was always predicted to be a evening/late night storm for us and that is actually when it hit. Be thankful that more areas weren't affected to the west like T-town and B-ham. They can't always get it exactly right, but they were pretty dang close. Models and STP had shown for several runs the highest values over Calhoun county and surrounding areas in North and East Al and that is exactly where the worst storms happened. I had told people for days I had a bad feeling about this system.

I know for me personally, 2 tornadoes hit VERY close to home with this system. The Jville storm literally began and came down just above where all of my family lives and where I grew up and came close to the south/east of where I reside now. I was actually dead in the center of the 3rd Calhoun county Tornado warning, that thankfully didn't come to fruition. I think the mets and the SPC did a solid job with this one. I guess that is why they make the big bucks and are the professionals. It's amazing after seeing the damage in Calhoun county that there weren't any deaths or more serious injuries. It definitely looks like a war zone and will take a long time for the community and university to rebuild. Thank goodness that people heeded the warnings that came days in advance and were prepared. There was a photo found in Athens, GA from a home that was destroyed in Jacksonville, Al. That in and of itself just shows how violent this storm was that came through. It was so eerie after it happened, all that you could hear were sirens and alarms going off. I just thank God for keeping everyone safe. Everything lost was material and that can be rebuilt. #JSUstrong

 

[Arcc]

To date at least 12 tornado paths have been confirmed with a few more areas left to look at and classify from BMX, HUN and ATL per latest PIS.

I'm not sure what happened in this thread but it seemed 1/4 of the post were about how this was gonna bust or was busting big time. I don't get if you paid attention to the models runs the modeling showed this to be a north and East AL event for the most part a few runs sprinkled in showed some showers/storms South of Tuscaloosa Birmingham area but was not consistent. That is why every (I think) sounding I showed in this thread was either for North or East AL and W GA because in other areas showed non svr soundings. I went back to look at models data prior to event EURO and NAM...

View attachment 4682 View attachment 4683 View attachment 4684 View attachment 4685 View attachment 4686 View attachment 4687 View attachment 4688

Will add the warning vs SPC outlook in a few minutes gotta find it. They missed the southern part of the outlook area but were bang on in the enhanced and moderate area for the most part. Bash all you want but was a legit storm. Edit to add photo

View attachment 4689

I don't normally do this, but out of fairness I must call you out on this. Where is all the posts declaring busts at? I just looked back over the thread and pretty much all the posts are still dead on.

 

[Phillip l]

I don't normally do this, but out of fairness I must call you out on this. Where is all the posts declaring busts at? I just looked back over the thread and pretty much all the posts are still dead on.

You’ll have to look back, I was watching this thread live and the word bust came up frequently. An administratior even had to step in and tell people to stop saying it.

 

[ForsythSnow]

You’ll have to look back, I was watching this thread live and the word bust came up frequently. An administratior even had to step in and tell people to stop saying it.

Yeah, bust did come up quite a bit I think around 3 PM. It certainly wasn't a bust seeing several tornadoes were confirmed. It wasn't modeled well however, and we were expecting a totally different situation, but the threat was still within the areas at risk.

 

[Arcc]

You’ll have to look back, I was watching this thread live and the word bust came up frequently. An administratior even had to step in and tell people to stop saying it.

It must have been deleted then because after reading the thread over the only time the word bust came up was around 5pm or so when we were discussing BHM and south busting, which it did.

 

[RollTide18]

Holy crap, that Moderate Risk more than verified, Enhanced not so much but it was always an if and not when situation with the ENH area.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

I don't normally do this, but out of fairness I must call you out on this. Where is all the posts declaring busts at? I just looked back over the thread and pretty much all the posts are still dead on.

Start around page 8 and next 2-3 pages there was the tone and talk of bust, moderate risk was bad call and down playing of the event. And yes a mod stepped in referring to it as well, nothing been deleted.

As for the the Birmingham and points South slight risk not verifying I said and posted modeling from days earlier (EURO and 3km NAM) above to show was a long shot to begin with. Plus this was also a concern in BMX's discussions as well leading up to and during the event. Again not sure if this snuck up on some and not informed until last minute, didn't watch the models 3-4 days out or snow was stuck on the brain.

And that is why I left the thread was not going to start a pissing contest during current event after I tried to say several times that was later and going to be along I-65 and points to the East per model output and soundings.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Yeah, bust did come up quite a bit I think around 3 PM. It certainly wasn't a bust seeing several tornadoes were confirmed. It wasn't modeled well however, and we were expecting a totally different situation, but the threat was still within the areas at risk.

Models waffling a little bit but the NAM and EURO did petty well (see above images) days in advance. The sounding posted through out the thread esp early in thread disco as well showed all along high potential "PDS TOR" sigs over North and East AL as well as West GA.

 

[Arcc]

Start around page 8 and next 2-3 pages there was the tone and talk of bust, moderate risk was bad call and down playing of the event. And yes a mod stepped in referring to it as well, nothing been deleted.

As for the the Birmingham and points South slight risk not verifying I said and posted modeling from days earlier (EURO and 3km NAM) above to show was a long shot to begin with. Plus this was also a concern in BMX's discussions as well leading up to and during the event. Again not sure if this snuck up on some and not informed until last minute, didn't watch the models 3-4 days out or snow was stuck on the brain.

And that is why I left the thread was not going to start a pissing contest during current event after I tried to say several times that was later and going to be along I-65 and points to the East per model output and soundings.

I don't see that at all. All I see is actual discussion. I don't see SPC bashing. I don't see NWS bashing or do I see anyone in the slightest saying the event is over. There were questions about storm mode possibly being an issue and it was warranted. There were questions about dry air being a concern and it was warranted.

Everytime bust was mentioned it was meant for BHM south, which did bust. Yes the model's such as the WRF and 3km NAM had the threat over North east AL, it doesn't discount the fact that SPC had a PDS tornado watch down to Clanton.

I'm scratching my head a little. Nothing mentioned was out of line by anyone. What is the point of discussing anything about nowcasting if posting concerns about what we see causes problems?

 

[Xtreme Weather]

I don't see that at all. All I see is actual discussion. I don't see SPC bashing. I don't see NWS bashing or do I see anyone in the slightest saying the event is over. There were questions about storm mode possibly being an issue and it was warranted. There were questions about dry air being a concern and it was warranted.

Everytime bust was mentioned it was meant for BHM south, which did bust. Yes the model's such as the WRF and 3km NAM had the threat over North east AL, it doesn't discount the fact that SPC had a PDS tornado watch down to Clanton.

I'm scratching my head a little. Nothing mentioned was out of line by anyone. What is the point of discussing anything about nowcasting if posting concerns about what we see causes problems?

First off I didn't say anything about bashing where you got that no clue. As for the doubt about the SPC moderate risk, example

I'm starting to have thoughts that this should not have been upgraded to a MDT, the performance of these cells thus far is pretty lackluster to say the least in comparison to what could have happened and they've grown upscale into a linear mess in a hurry

I'm agreeing with you. I don't want to keep harping on this but that dry slug at 850mb over central AL is impressive. Bust potential growing quickly for BHM and southward in a hurry.

was others who made similar comments pertaining to this

This was within the first hour or two of the event even freakin started... like I said in previous comment the down playing was already in effect.

And last time I checked an outlined risk, tornado watch even freakin warning have a buffer to allow for at least a change in track, you know all this. Call it what you want but guarantee you I never used the word bashing if you want to interpret it that way fine but do not put words in my mouth.

 

[Webberweather53]

First off I didn't say anything about bashing where you got that no clue. As for the doubt about the SPC moderate risk, example



was others who made similar comments pertaining to this

This was within the first hour or two of the event even freakin started... like I said in previous comment the down playing was already in effect.

And last time I checked an outlined risk, tornado watch even freakin warning have a buffer to allow for at least a change in track, you know all this. Call it what you want but guarantee you I never used the word bashing if you want to interpret it that way fine but do not put words in my mouth.

Don't even try to drag me into this, there's a huge difference between "starting to have thoughts" and flat out saying "I think this is definitely a bust" because it clearly wasn't in northern AL because what I said was running through a lot of minds when the storms quickly grew upscale because the shear vector orientation wrt the initial squall line was crap.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Don't even try to drag me into this, there's a huge difference between "starting to have thoughts" and flat out saying "I think this is definitely a bust" because it clearly wasn't in northern AL because what I said was running through a lot of minds when the storms quickly grew upscale because the shear vector orientation wrt the initial squall line was crap.

Simply quoted what you said. Mainly because it would seem after verification and petty damn good call by the SPC and local NWS offices. After the event was over I then brought up the question to why all the doubt, downplaying and bust talk? I got called out for asking about all the doubters during the event so there you go. BTW, never said you called it a bust either but clearly you had doubts about verification less than two hours into the event.

 

[Webberweather53]

Simply quoted what you said. Mainly because it would seem after verification and petty damn good call by the SPC and local NWS offices. After the event was over I then brought up the question to why all the doubt, downplaying and bust talk? I got called out for asking about all the doubters during the event so there you go. BTW, never said you called it a bust either but clearly you had doubts about verification less than two hours into the event.

My doubts were pretty well received, how often do supercells become separate entities after growing into a massive line, in fact that actually never happened in north Alabama, the supercells trained one after another w/ tornadoes forming and then quickly dying on the forward flank of the cold pool, messy storm modes like those are less favorable to producing tornadoes whether you like it or not, period. You weren't simply quoting what I said here, you never said I thought it was bust but how come you used my quote in response to ARCC when asked if people thought it was a bust, that doesn't sound like a simple quote? Now you're backpedaling and contradicting yourself trying to assert I didn't think it was a bust. We questioned your line of rationale because the storm mode was already messy and instead of remaining civil, you proceeded to get angry and pout about it and only came back after the fact to gloat. If you want to continue to whine about how many of us here supposedly thought it was a bust do so in banter.