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Pattern December to Remember

GaWx said:
12Z GEFS isn’t as cold as the 6Z around 12/5-6, but it looks to come in colder around 12/9 and beyond with an impressive +PNA! This actually would line up well with the move of the MJO to phase 7 and headed to 8.
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Same as 12Z GEFS for 12Z EPS except it is colder throughout the run! Nice +PNA reappears! It is a cold reversal.

Edit: not colder throughout the run. It warms up late.
 
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olhausen said:
I say this every year around this time. Fact is most places in the southeast will rarely see a decent snow before January. Since 2006 I’ve had one December that gave me a 2 inch plus snow event which was in 2010. Last year was only the second time I’ve had even a one inch snow before January. That storm happened on November 30th which was also the only November I’ve ever had a snow storm that produced an inch. Snow is fun to track but no one should think winter is done or doomed based off what’s happening at the very end of November into December.
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I'm surprised being near Kentucky that snow in December is so rare there.
 
Mr. Golf said:
SD, I didn't think the mjo charts looked that bad to me imo if they are anywhere close to accurate
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Might be seeing a case where a bad high latitude pattern is overwhelming the pattern and can withstand the forcing from the tropics, we had a similar issue in either 18/19 or 19/20. Also looks like the euro retrogrades the mjo back into p6 which becomes a SER phase as we move through December.
 
SD said:
Might be seeing a case where a bad high latitude pattern is overwhelming the pattern and can withstand the forcing from the tropics, we had a similar issue in either 18/19 or 19/20. Also looks like the euro retrogrades the mjo back into p6 which becomes a SER phase as we move through December.
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The models and ensembles are trying to come to consensus of SSW development moving forward. Obviously still early in the game.
 
Mr. Golf said:
The models and ensembles are trying to come to consensus of SSW development moving forward. Obviously still early in the game.
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There seems to be decent agreement that the strat is going to warm over north America but other than some displacement the vortex is still rocking. I'd be more excited if they were showing a split or elongation and interruption of the circulation. Maybe it'll come in time I'm not sure
 
SD said:
There seems to be decent agreement that the strat is going to warm over north America but other than some displacement the vortex is still rocking. I'd be more excited if they were showing a split or elongation and interruption of the circulation. Maybe it'll come in time I'm not sure
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Are we coupled all the way up? I haven't looked at the charts recently. Honestly, I have kind of lost interest in worrying about the stratosphere unless we're tightly wound down low. It's too complicated to predict the impacts. Does it warm at 50mb or all the way up to 10mb? What's the lag time? Does it get displaced? If so, where? Does it split? Does it get back together quickly? Does it cause the troposphere PV to move into east central Canada? Or Siberia? Is it coupled? Etc.
 
Rain Cold said:
Are we coupled all the way up? I haven't looked at the charts recently. Honestly, I have kind of lost interest in worrying about the stratosphere unless we're tightly wound down low. It's too complicated to predict the impacts. Does it warm at 50mb or all the way up to 10mb? What's the lag time? Does it get displaced? If so, where? Does it split? Does it get back together quickly? Does it cause the troposphere PV to move into east central Canada? Or Siberia? Is it coupled? Etc.
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That's a lot of questions. I'll have a response by the time it gets cold
 
Rain Cold said:
Are we coupled all the way up? I haven't looked at the charts recently. Honestly, I have kind of lost interest in worrying about the stratosphere unless we're tightly wound down low. It's too complicated to predict the impacts. Does it warm at 50mb or all the way up to 10mb? What's the lag time? Does it get displaced? If so, where? Does it split? Does it get back together quickly? Does it cause the troposphere PV to move into east central Canada? Or Siberia? Is it coupled? Etc.
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Supposedly the -qbo helps promote a SSW but not sure if true or not. We got lucky last February to have it on our side
 
If its warm this winter, no suprise at all. The thing is getting enough cold air and moisture to marry each other to bring in a winter event in our area.
 
Rain Cold said:
Are we coupled all the way up? I haven't looked at the charts recently. Honestly, I have kind of lost interest in worrying about the stratosphere unless we're tightly wound down low. It's too complicated to predict the impacts. Does it warm at 50mb or all the way up to 10mb? What's the lag time? Does it get displaced? If so, where? Does it split? Does it get back together quickly? Does it cause the troposphere PV to move into east central Canada? Or Siberia? Is it coupled? Etc.
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Agree with that. Strat stuff is most valuable as a rationale to determine why the winter went so wrong come mid March. Until then it's all sand in the wind.
 
Rain Cold said:
Are we coupled all the way up? I haven't looked at the charts recently. Honestly, I have kind of lost interest in worrying about the stratosphere unless we're tightly wound down low. It's too complicated to predict the impacts. Does it warm at 50mb or all the way up to 10mb? What's the lag time? Does it get displaced? If so, where? Does it split? Does it get back together quickly? Does it cause the troposphere PV to move into east central Canada? Or Siberia? Is it coupled? Etc.
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So many ifs.
 
Mr. Golf said:
If its warm this winter, no suprise at all. The thing is getting enough cold air and moisture to marry each other to bring in a winter event in our area.
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Yeah that’s a good recipe for a winter storm here mr golf. Moisture and
Mr. Golf said:
Expect more changes at 0z most likely
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Yeah more above average temps …
 
Mr. Golf said:
If its warm this winter, no suprise at all. The thing is getting enough cold air and moisture to marry each other to bring in a winter event in our area.
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To be fair most of last winter was warm too

Everyone just remembers the week and a half in February

Basically I haven't been impressed in a December in many years for winter weather(definitely not since I was in Alabama years ago and even then meh usually)
 
tennessee storm said:
Exactly, great point I have see. Many ssw events backfire on us if it does happen
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This is honestly why I’ve stopped paying attention until they actually occur. There is no way of knowing when they do happen of where the cold air gets dumped… North America or Europe. Even still there are other factors still at play. Last year we had the SSW, the cold dumped in North America, but the MJO amped up in a bad phase causing the SER to flex.
 
The CFSv2's one-month lead forecast is usually pretty good on the doorstep of the following month (Dec in this case). No surprise, the latest runs are an all out blowtorch for the nation as a whole, the US east coast gets spared the brunt of the warmest anomalies, but still above normal for most. In all honesty, it seems more reasonable than Joe Bastardi's forecast for BN temps.

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Webberweather53 said:
The CFSv2's one-month lead forecast is usually pretty good on the doorstep of the following month (Dec in this case). No surprise, the latest runs are an all out blowtorch for the nation as a whole, the US east coast gets spared the brunt of the warmest anomalies, but still above normal for most. In all honesty, it seems more reasonable than Joe Bastardi's forecast for BN temps.

1638316800-Qr6tZg7k4eE.png
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Tarheel1 said:
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Dude, didn't they teach you how to not post Facebook screenshots on here? Anyways, I would have to wonder if there is eventually a big dump of cold air, like record-type air over the mountain west at some point. Especially considering its sitting just above them in Canada. I feel like I have read about some of that region's worst cold outbreaks and it followed bouts like this. Hot take- there is going to be a big cold blast in the west eventually, during that record cold period the east will bake before finally the cold moves east, though moderated. Could be a Jan 2005 scenario where we got 11 days at or above 70 during the first 15 days of the month then the second half was almost entirely 30s and 40s. Or could be an outright jan 1950.
 
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