tennessee storm
Member
That’s a typical moderate to strong Niña for you showing it’s ugly head
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
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tennessee storm
Member
Actually for our area cd we tend to score more snow storms with a negative pna ,because positive pna usually spell suppressed pattern pushes everything towards gulf. But we going need least ao go negative to get some colder air into the mix .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, December 11-12 1958 still holds the throne as greatest December storm ever in the coastal plain area near I-95 and parts of the eastern piedmont of NC. While Dec 2010 produced a tiny area of 12"+ amounts east of Raleigh, there was a 50 ish mile swath across the entire state in Dec 1958 that experienced them. Nash County looks like the big winner w/ 19" in Nashville.
(Important aside: I am currently working on updating this map (& others in the winter of 1958-59) w/ some new, additional data I've been able to find since I first did this as an undergrad at NC State several years ago. Should have a new analysis + better looking map in the next several days or so.)
This storm is another good example of why we love to see high-latitude N Pacific & Pacific-Arctic blocking
Major source region build up but also now Judah is on board with cold snow? I never know where this guys heads at 
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I’m sure he means MA and northeast
Nice gradient pattern at the end of the icon 
Yeah it looked like it might have been trying to set something up past 180 with the clipper moving through and a new cold air mass coming but it was starting to dig in the west so maybe not
They don't make them much uglier than where the gfs is headed. At least it's a decent pattern to get some rain into the region
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12Z GEFS isn’t as cold as the 6Z around 12/5-6, but it looks to come in colder around 12/9 and beyond with an impressive +PNA! This actually would line up well with the move of the MJO to phase 7 and headed to 8.
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The good thing is the western snow pack (specifically in higher elevations) will go above normal. This provides crucial water supplies for agricultural areas in the spring. We get a lot of our food from the west.
tennessee storm
Member
Best thing bout that is still fantasy land …but if it verifies, we will be breaking record high temps for December
And even if this verified to the end, I would think that cold to the NW (1050 high) would eventually barrow southeastward. Joe Bastardi's old point of cold pushing in like syrup, undercutting everything (including the SE ridge). **with la nina and the very cold air that will sit to our NW we may see some of these situations this winter; or we can hope so. 12z GFS hour 384 dew points:
I put down an extra app of pre-em just in case we had a big warm up mid winter. If the bermuda starts greening up I might need a straight jacket
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Look at Falls with the silver lining winner down the sideline!
Gefs really wants to warm the strat over noam
But the pv just laughing
But the pv just laughing
Yeah would be close reminds me of this trashbag
olhausen
Member
I say this every year around this time. Fact is most places in the southeast will rarely see a decent snow before January. Since 2006 I’ve had one December that gave me a 2 inch plus snow event which was in 2010. Last year was only the second time I’ve had even a one inch snow before January. That storm happened on November 30th which was also the only November I’ve ever had a snow storm that produced an inch. Snow is fun to track but no one should think winter is done or doomed based off what’s happening at the very end of November into December.
It's not too late for you to change your vote on the thread name...... ?
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I mean it may be a December to remember for most ever golf rounds in the month of December
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looking like it's going to be 70F +/- 2F for the next 7-10 days around here. Not complaining.
Nice 
The name can be interpreted in many ways .. dam I remember December being so warm .. dam I remember December being so cold .. dam I remember December for that late December snow storm … dam I remember December for that wicked severe weather outbreak .. dam i remember … see so many outcomes
Euro was going well until it connected the troughs over Ak but that ridge in Greenland could play
Another random Greenland block lol
Certainly a pesky little booger I love it .. would size of block matter in any case regarding a -NAO
Lol geez
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Can we trade this pattern for a better one
Teach Lesley
Member
Better buckle up for the winter long -NAO then because McCaff out for the year again.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
-NAO sucks. I’d rather have 70 and rain than 40 and rain
iGRXY
Member
Looks like we are seeing a repeat of last year with the models again. SER shows it's ugly head in the extended only to have a -NAO show up once we get to the medium range and mute it. Problem is we will likely just see days of cloudy and 40 degree days with that type of pattern. I won't complain because I enjoy that type of weather but until we get the pacific to work for us I expect a lot of 30 and 40 degree days with a lot of CAD sprinkled in for those east of the APPs. Going to need the pacific to work if we want to get true artic air in here and have a chance for winter weather.