If this threat period holds on 00z models … I have to put my vote in for a thread
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I would wait for a few days.
Way to early man by a mile relax haha
Yeah, it’s way too early. I’d wait until we’re at least under 180 or 150 hours.
Broken024
Member
No threads till namming starts
Yeah let's revist Sunday afternoon or Monday morning maybe even Tuesday if there's no consistency
I wouldn’t mind this either last feb proved that for areas east of the apps
My bad my bad I mean I’m not saying it’s going to be a for sure thing event I just figured a thread could be started for a time period we are watching for something to happen for someone all three major models all pointing at this time period for something to happen to someone in the SE .. what that something is who knows but we would have a thread to put all the clunk in every 6 hours but I suppose we making them for for sure events and in that case we clutter the December thread for a few more days
Gonna be hard to do better then this craziness from last run 
The 6Z and 12Z GEFS resumed the colder trends. The near picture perfect MJO forecast continues today from the GEFS for the best chance for cold to dominate the SE per historical MJO stats. The challenge though is the combo of PNA, AO, and NAO. The GEFS still doesn’t have any of them in a favorable position yet although they’ve all trended somewhat in the more favorable direction vs where they had been toward the end of the 2 week forecast period. The first few days of December are showing as a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO combo. However, they all trend a little better late, especially PNA and NAO.
Here’s the near optimal GEFS MJO from today going toward low amplitude 7 and 8:
Here’s the near optimal GEFS MJO from today going toward low amplitude 7 and 8:
I'm all for starting a thread around D7 if the models are all in enough agreement that the threat is there, it's not like starting the thread will change the outcome. I just don't want to start threads for D10-11 then tomorrow evening this thing is dead and 56 people are posting womp, oof, dead, next, turn out the lights, shouldn't have started the thread, 2011, epo, ser, and so on.
Which reminds me our board stretches across a number of states, if the system looks bad for your area that doesn't mean it does for someone else. Can we please not post the this storm is dead imby stuff in the main threads and keep it to whamby. We almost had to start 2 threads last feb and I doubt many people want subregional threads here
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Geez euro is raising heights along the west coast into Canada a little more but it has a new closed wave in AK that might be a problem
Looks like higher heights shallow, lower heights closer to the Arctic, and a donut over AK 
If we can boot that vortex over AK and bridge those higher heights from the west coast into the NPAC, oh man 
Also don’t know if it’ll end up causing any problems but that little wave off of California coast albeit far away but that just randomly popped up
I feel like it's going to screw the whole thing here and drop down the WC
Looks like the overall broad western ridge is gonna save it for us but the process this run isn’t one I’m comfortable with 
It's probably not going to unload the entire arctic into the SE like the 0z but there may be a storm around d10 with some bitter cold lurking along the US/Can border at D10