Can't wait for the fire and golf emojis when the 0z gfs flips then it flips back cold then goes warm then goes cold
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Patterns the last 2 years have been chaotic with blocking, models typically suck with blocking
Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah you’re right. Euro has botched so far but I think the gfs is over amping a bit. Cmc is a good middle ground. The initial cool down on Christmas looks legit but I question anything other than normal to slightly above the week after
Yeah we are living the life of the pacific ridge driving the pattern and not being in an ideal position now we are layering in a developing -nao to further the headaches
Cary_Snow95
Member
Meanwhile GEFS is warmer for Christmas 
I’d watch this doesn’t look like much but typically models push things south with deep confluence/-NAO in time 
pcbjr
Member
New screen saver ...
18z GFS is absolute trash for winter weather for the bulk of the SE through the entire run. Some nice cool shots and no sustained torching. But it's not a good look for snow or ice.
Downeastnc
Member
After hr 66 the 18Z GFS has no temp over 60 the rest of the run for MBY in eastern NC.....sad that that is even worthy of mention but that's where we are this winter.
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pcbjr
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
That’s been my take all month. Unless it’s a pattern conducive to snow I’d rather 70 degrees so I can golf. I know we are transitioning but we are riding right on the edge of a trash pattern
I respectfully disagree. It’s not a great pattern at all and I’m not saying it is, but it’s not that terrible, you literally have one of the key pieces to a Carolina winter storm on the 18z GFS run, a strong 50/50 low. It’s a big change vs last years WAR, as I’ve said many times, all you need is a handoff of energy time right with the confluence and you have something interesting. A terrible pattern is a pattern with no options to score. This pattern has a option that might be a stretch, but it’s still a small possibility. Again this is just the OP GFS, and the GEFs wasn’t as good as the 12z
Yep. Its just like last year except 10-15 degrees warmer in our area. Status quo, KATL is looking at a top 5 warm December with no sub freezing lows.
No changes from me through first few weeks of January. Still waiting until Christmas Eve before I further delay our start at Winter weather chances. I haven’t canceled that last week of January just yet for those reading. Still some hope.
That’s a nice +EAMT showing up, which typically signals a +PNA sometime after or at least a attempt at one, something to watch 
It's just not going to be cold enough. I would consider a non-terrible pattern to be one that isn't 85%+ chance against us. The upper level confluence is not bad, I don't disagree. But you literally have no genuine cold air nearby and no snow pack to our northwest. With the little bubble ridge in the middle of the country, you have an unfavorable storm track, with the exception of potentially a quasi-cool Miller B that might produce some front end mix for some lucky areas. We just need more than a -NAO and 50/50, particularly in today's climate, particularly when the bulk of the cold is well to our northwest, and particularly in early winter. This is just going off the 18z GFS, though.
Stephenb888
Member
Man it’s really negative in here today considering all of the cold artic air coming in January.