tennessee storm
Member
Just always seems be at the end …only get pushed further n further
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I bet the unusually warm gulf of Mexico (for this time of year) is not helping our storm track and thermals so far this winter. Also led to the deadly tornadoes west of us I saw from multiple sources.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
IMHO, I think the models are finally starting to focus in on where the cold air is going to be. The west. Basically like any other year. Will it eventually move east? Maybe. It’s been quite difficult for that to happen the last several years. 
6z GFS dropped back about 10 degrees (from 0z) for Christmas. How warm or cold Christmas ends up, will be our tracking focus for the next week (late day temps):
Well damn! Per the GFS, parts of Texss could approach 90*F on Christmas day.
Highs look to push the mid 80s here in DFW.
Highs look to push the mid 80s here in DFW.
It is quite the pattern squeeze play though.
-NAO / MJO Phase 7
vs.
-PNA / -EPO
-NAO / MJO Phase 7
vs.
-PNA / -EPO
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS even warmer this run, 
And with the pattern looking even more volatile the 2nd half of the month, hopefully we won't have to deal with yet another (3rd) severe weather outbreak...
Cary_Snow95
Member
Gfs has taken clear steps towards the euro with the 50/50
Cary_Snow95
Member
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
How were the EURO/EPS at 00z? Didn’t see many posts about it
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Not surprisingly, the GEFS breaks down the ridge at the end of the run. 
I'm sure you can go look for yourself
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I just assumed it was colder considering he didn’t post it ??
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
From what I could see the EPS wasn’t bad for cold at least for the Carolinas at the end of the run
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The silence speaks everything you need to know.
The GOM temps have nothing to do with our thermals or storm track if the upper flow is oriented correctly. We simply need a cold air source and a pattern that doesn't feature a bubble ridge in the center of the country.
With the wave train moving across the US out of the trough in the pacific starting this weekend and lasting through at least Christmas and maybe after I'm still not entirely sure I'd get too attached to warm/cold. One mis step in model amplification/non amplification makes the difference in a clogged up SE Canada and an ever digging trough in the east or a flat slightly ridged SE. Chances are we land in the middle with a more variable day to day pattern but the potential is certainly there for a really warm/fairly chilly change
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I'm still a believer that we will need the MJO to push into phase 8 to change things up. It's unclear if it will make it there.
I’ve been hearing that the ECMWF BC has been to slow with the MJO waveI'm still a believer that we will need the MJO to push into phase 8 to change things up. It's unclear if it will make it there.