• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December to Remember

Just slightly different solutions. :confused:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png


gfs_z500_mslp_us_41.png
 
If that were to go out another 12 hours, the cold would be spilling into the rest of the east coast, and then like you said would possibly set the stage for something a couple days later… perhaps a weak low developing along the front boundary in the northern Gulf
 
As long as we get our early December storm
Im not a fan of the strat pattern and I haven’t been the last couple
Weeks, the H5 pattern isn’t helping either with weakening the strat PV, the question is, when does H5 react to the ---- strat pattern, kind of a flashback to 2020 with the strat PV 30DD3FE1-851C-488E-84CA-9316F00F3EE9.gif747F8D8E-EEAB-42E1-A010-C5D5D8CA3634.png010EE501-6A5C-4FDF-B3BF-2F22F4F0F3D9.gif20542DCB-3E1D-48CE-BC69-5C5F6146B51E.png
 
I just don’t see it, besides a weak stretched PV event towards NA in early December, the H5 pattern is the opposite of what you want for a weak SPV with a -WPO, you want a trough over the Bering sea like last year, along with a ridge towards the Barents Sea, in time that weakens that strat PV, the strat PV is not just good at delivering cold into the lower latitudes, but it highly promotes -AO/-NAO, it’s hard to get sustained blocking with a strong PV, the good news tho is we’re in a -QBO right now which means the SPV could be more susceptible to weakening B3599D61-B291-41ED-A6A2-D2B3378F3EB9.png
 
Back
Top