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Pattern December to Remember

Mr. Golf said:
Great raincold. If niñas are usually front loaded, hopefully we get action going soon.
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I honestly have a hard time getting excited about or buying into modeled events before mid-December, unless we're talking about the upper Midwest or northeast. That's not to say a winter storm couldn't happen here, but anything more than token flakes or some sleet pellets now is quite rare, no matter the base state of ENSO.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
View attachment 95796GEFS seems to be cooler than the GFS
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Night and day, given the GEFS has been steady I'm more inclined to believe the OP is going to be all over the place until we near verification or the Ens follow.
gfs_z500a_us_43.png
gfs-ens_z500a_us_43.png

Not to mention the GEFS has trended stronger over time toward a stronger ridge out west and stronger trough in the eastgfs-ens_z500a_us_fh234_trend.gif
 
ForsythSnow said:
Night and day, given the GEFS has been steady I'm more inclined to believe the OP is going to be all over the place until we near verification or the Ens follow.
gfs_z500a_us_43.png
gfs-ens_z500a_us_43.png

Not to mention the GEFS has trended stronger over time toward a stronger ridge out west and stronger trough in the eastView attachment 95798
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It never ceases to amaze me how an Op model can be a complete 180 from its own ensembles. I know I blast the GFS plenty, but in all honesty this something we’ve seen lately from the Euro as well.
 
trending to what we’ve had for about a month now, a western ridge/trying to get a +PNA going, and there’s a TPV in Canada which will enhance colder temps in Canada, this pattern could get interesting for the first week of December, it would be nice to see that ridge try to tower towards the NW territories, but hey a western ridge would work with this TPV. Been seeing a reflection in the snow mean D7E7AC87-35D5-47EF-80FA-012A6C097AD2.pngE49CEFA7-9641-45C8-AD72-B7BCAA940A9C.png5AA2C153-3ACE-4FEC-BA1B-40052CA5971B.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
trending to what we’ve had for about a month now, a western ridge/trying to get a +PNA going, and there’s a TPV in Canada which will enhance colder temps in Canada, this pattern could get interesting for the first week of December, it would be nice to see that ridge try to tower towards the NW territories, but hey a western ridge would work with this TPV. Been seeing a reflection in the snow mean View attachment 95799View attachment 95800View attachment 95801
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I made the mistake of getting caught up with the warmer solutions a week ago Because Im never comfortable with a Persistent AK vortex
 
Mr. Golf said:
Goes from phase 6 into the cod. I thought we want to see it in phase 7? Larry, do u see the BC after gefs top right corner? That's the bias corrected I meant earlier
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This is what I’d call “super yummy”. Actually, it does go into phase 7 but at low amplitude/inside the circle and is then headed most likely to low amp 8. I couldn’t draw a more desirable forecast. Let’s hope it is real.
 
Rain Cold said:
A low amplitude MJO is not really something to worry about or get overly excited about. Lots of other pattern drivers at work out there.

Also, the western ridge may break down for a time, but we may also see blocking develop. There's some pretty good cold air building up over northern North America. Wouldn't take a lot to tap it.
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Actually, a low amplitude MJO on the left side has a lot of potential for the SE based on my extensive analysis of historical data. I prefer seeing that to a high amplitude per history. I hope it is real!
 
Agreed. I would be fine with the MJO staying fairly low amplitude provided we can get some other factors going for us. East of the mountains missed out on great snow potential last February because the MJO decided to flex in the wrong phase at the worst time. Given the Niña that we’re in, I would expect it to go into a higher amplitude as we go deep into January… this is another reason why I think the SE needs to score by January 10.
 
This euro run however in the medium range is quite warmer, watch the pacific tho looks like we’ll stay with eventually trying to get back to a +PNA DEDAB18F-7163-466E-910B-96DF5F29F509.pngC3077304-BB88-4E65-AF8B-31B3D0597E21.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Phase 6 MJO in a La Niña isn’t bad at all, In fact it’s pretty good and matches what the GEFS is showing View attachment 95806View attachment 95807View attachment 95808View attachment 95805
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I’m trying to stay calm upon seeing that much improved Euro MJO forecast vs yesterday’s that curled back into phase 6. @Rain Cold thought it was likely bogus and that appears to be the case now. @Webberweather53 did an extensive study that shows the Euro doesn’t do as well as the GEFS from the MC.

So, today we now have two awesome MJO forecasts from the two main ensembles.
 
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